amárach economic recovery index september 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

September 2014

© Amárach Research


Cautious Optimism

The clouds are lifting, but people haven’t put

away their umbrellas: nevertheless, our survey

shows continuing improvement in consumer

feelings about the economy, and a growing

willingness to spend.

The Economic Recovery Index reached

another record high this month, following a

series of highs since the spring.

A majority of Irish people continue to say the

economy is clearly improving; only a minority

feel it’s bad or just stable.

As we enter the last quarter of 2014, the

prospects for Irish consumer markets have

improved markedly compared to the first

quarter…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

September 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 12th-20th September 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – details

at the end of this report.

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index reached a new record level in September 2014:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, September 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

the ERI is getting closer to the 40 barrier…


A Matter of Measurement

Aug ’14: 16% Sept ’14: 15%

Aug ’14: 33% Sept ’14: 33%

Aug ’14: 38% Sept ’14: 39%

Aug ’14: 13% Sept ’14: 13%

Aug ’14: 0% Sept ’14: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

For the first time in over 5 years, the majority of Irish people say the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Sep-09 50 28 21 1 0 18.4

Sep-10 45 32 21 2 0 19.2

Sep-11 48 30 21 1 0 19.0

Sep-12 46 28 23 2 1 20.8

Sep-13 35 31 30 4 0 25.7

Aug-14 16 33 38 13 0 37.2

Sep-14 15 33 39 13 1 38.1

twice as many people see signs of improvement as five years ago


Uneven Recovery

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, class, Dublin)


September 2014 TOTAL Male Female 25-34 35-44 45-54 BOI PTSB Dunnes O2 V’fone

1000 494 506 223 187 156 284 172 159 207 353

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 14% 14% 15% 12% 16% 16% 13% 19% 12% 15% 13%


is bad but has stabilized 32% 32% 32% 36% 34% 35% 36% 25% 33% 31% 34%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

38% 36% 41% 36% 35% 41% 37% 37% 41% 41% 38%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

13% 16% 9% 11% 12% 8% 13% 17% 11% 11% 13%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% * 1% 1% 0 0 * 1% 0 * *

ERI Score 38.1 39.2 37.0 37.2 35.8 36.2 38.5 38.6 38.2 37.7 38.6

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Sep-09 46 48 62 60

Sep-10 31 41 46 53

Sep-11 26 38 47 49

Sep-12 24 35 46 42

Sep-13 28 38 45 46

Aug-14 41 44 53 47

Sep-14 45 42 54 44

nearly half expect Ireland to be through worst of recession in 12 months time


Unaffected?

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“Right now the recession is affecting other people more than it’s affecting me”



Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 223 187 156 284 172 159 207 353

Strongly Agree 18% 20% 16% 15% 20% 13% 23% 16% 19% 21% 19%

Slightly Agree 26% 25% 28% 30% 22% 18% 23% 27% 33% 26% 27%

Neither/Nor 18% 20% 16% 17% 22% 20% 16% 23% 17% 15% 18%

Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 21% 20% 20% 27% 24% 13% 17% 20% 18%

Strongly Disagree 15% 15% 16% 14% 15% 20% 11% 20% 13% 15% 16%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Sep-09 18

Sep-10 18 24 56 27

Sep-11 14 23 59 23

Sep-12 13 26 56 24

Sep-13 19 26 57 25

Aug-14 28 27 56 27

Sep-14 26 25 57 28

willingness to borrow from banks continues to improve cautiously


Purses & Wallets

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I would be happy to borrow from the bank if I needed to”



Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 223 187 156 284 172 159 207 353

Strongly Agree 8% 11% 6% 8% 12% 10% 7% 9% 9% 13% 9%

Slightly Agree 19% 22% 17% 25% 24% 20% 21% 18% 16% 19% 19%

Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 19% 14% 12% 15% 14% 19% 11% 13%

Slightly Disagree 21% 19% 23% 17% 21% 23% 20% 21% 20% 19% 21%

Strongly Disagree 33% 31% 35% 27% 28% 33% 34% 34% 33% 35% 36%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy the

lowest price

products or

services

I am always on the

lookout for

opportunities to

switch to cheaper

suppliers

I have more

choice than before

when it comes to

products and

services

I always buy Irish

when I can

Apr-13 57 71 52 52

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51

Jun-14 55 70 58 52

Jul-14 58 72 58 48

Aug-14 56 71 60 51

Sep-14 55 74 61 53

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



1000 494 506 223 187 156 284 172 159 207 353

Enjoyment 59% 61% 58% 53% 58% 62% 62% 62% 56% 61% 59%

Happiness 56% 57% 55% 49% 58% 57% 61% 54% 57% 56% 56%

Stress 41% 36% 46% 49% 40% 44% 40% 42% 46% 38% 43%

Worry 37% 37% 37% 45% 41% 40% 38% 35% 37% 36% 38%

Anxiety 31% 27% 34% 37% 31% 25% 33% 35% 27% 33% 28%

Boredom 25% 25% 25% 30% 23% 22% 24% 28% 25% 24% 23%

Physical Pain 24% 21% 27% 21% 19% 26% 24% 30% 25% 29% 24%

Sadness 21% 18% 25% 21% 17% 23% 23% 18% 17% 25% 18%

Anger 15% 17% 13% 18% 15% 14% 18% 16% 12% 15% 13%

Fear 10% 11% 10% 12% 13% 10% 12% 13% 10% 10% 9%


% saying Yes: September 2014

Amárach Outlook


Autumnal Turn

Moods are catching, so if the current emotional

and intentional momentum continues we can

expect to see a gradual increase in the share

of consumers more prepared to open their

purses & wallets.

Only then will the recovery become much

more manifest for the nation as a whole.

We hope this edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has given you some food for

thought about the opportunities that lie ahead

– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you

on how to leverage the new momentum.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Amárach Research and Chilli Pepper Marketing have

created the inaugural Loyalty Performance Index

(LPI) and report, which is the first ever independent report

on loyalty programmes in Ireland.

This unique research model has been developed to

identify loyalty winners and provide useful benchmarking

data for any Brands currently running or planning to

embark on a loyalty programme.

If Brands would like to arrange a confidential briefing on

the Loyalty Performance Index, then contact either:

Gerard O’Neill ([email protected])

or Leanne Papaioannou ([email protected])

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch