amárach economic recovery index january 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

January 2015

Includes additional analyses by:

main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider

© Amárach Research


A Modest Start

Our first edition of the Economic Recovery

Index for 2015 shows a continuing plateau in

overall consumer sentiment about their own

personal circumstances and prospects for the

wider economy.

As before, we have added in a more detailed

analysis this month showing differences in

outlook among customers of the main banks,

supermarkets, mobile phone networks and

electricity suppliers to help you plan for 2015.

But it is only the start of the year, and January

is a month we look ahead rather than look

around, so we can anticipate further changes

in mood, intentions and behaviours in the

months ahead.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

January 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 14th to 22nd January 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was five years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index seems to have reached a plateau since late Q4 2014:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, January 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

the ERI remains flat going into 2015…


A Matter of Measurement

Dec ’14: 16% Jan ’15: 17%

Dec ’14: 31% Jan ’15: 29%

Dec ’14: 38% Jan ’15: 38%

Dec ’14: 13% Jan ’15: 16%

Dec ’14: 1% Jan ’15: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

A solid majority of Irish people still continues to say that the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jan-10 32 34 31 3 0 27.1

Jan-11 56 23 18 2 1 17.3

Jan-12 58 24 16 2 0 15.4

Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9

Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3

Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9

Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5

the ERI is almost back to its late 2014 peak…



(by sex, age, Dublin, class)


January 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 16% 17% 15% 10% 16% 18% 19% 17% 14% 14% 18%


is bad but has stabilized 27% 30% 24% 28% 30% 27% 31% 23% 26% 26% 28%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

35% 30% 41% 33% 34% 32% 39% 38% 36% 34% 36%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

15% 17% 13% 13% 13% 18% 8% 20% 17% 19% 11%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% 1% * 1% 1% 0 1% 0 * 1% *

ERI Score 38.5 38.2 38.8 36.8 37.2 38.1 36.9 42.0 40.0 41.3 36.1

Some Progress – I


Some Progress – II


(by main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider)


January 2015 TOTAL AIB Bank of

Ireland

Voda

fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi

Electric

Ireland Airtricity

1000 350 279 333 162 117 302 166 247 516 197


in Ireland is getting

worse 16% 17% 12% 14% 9% 19% 14% 16% 18% 18% 17%


is bad but has stabilized 27% 26% 31% 24% 34% 33% 27% 26% 28% 29% 24%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

35% 34% 37% 42% 37% 27% 37% 34% 39% 33% 40%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

15% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 17% 12% 15% 17%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% * 1% 1% 0 0 1% 1% * 1% *

ERI Score 38.5 39.5 41.2 41.1 40.3 33.8 38.3 38.9 38.4 38.5 41.2

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jan-10 52 50 61 55

Jan-11 26 39 48 49

Jan-12 21 37 45 46

Jan-13 32 40 47 47

Jan-14 41 44 53 46

Dec-14 40 42 52 43

Jan-15 38 40 50 40

fewer people feel immune from the recession…


Modest Optimists – I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 14% 15% 13% 16% 12% 11% 12% 16% 13% 18% 10%

Slightly Agree 36% 36% 36% 30% 39% 34% 35% 40% 33% 40% 32%

Neither/Nor 20% 21% 20% 22% 22% 23% 21% 16% 22% 18% 23%

Slightly Disagree 13% 12% 14% 17% 12% 14% 15% 11% 16% 12% 14%

Strongly Disagree 13% 15% 12% 8% 12% 15% 15% 17% 13% 9% 17%


Modest Optimists – II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank etc):

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”



Ireland

Voda


Electric

Ireland Airtricity

1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222

Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 13% 17% 10% 11% 13%

Slightly Agree 30% 32% 34% 30% 25% 35% 33% 32% 27% 32% 31%

Neither/Nor 16% 18% 12% 17% 18% 18% 16% 13% 19% 15% 19%




Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jan-10 21 26 60 29

Jan-11 13 22 59 22

Jan-12 14 24 57 24

Jan-13 22 27 57 27

Jan-14 23 25 57 24

Dec-14 26 23 55 23

Jan-15 25 23 54 26

there has been a recovery in % willing to borrow


Happy Borrowers – I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I needed to”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 9% 12% 6% 8% 10% 11% 8% 8% 10% 11% 7%

Slightly Agree 17% 20% 14% 18% 21% 18% 15% 14% 16% 20% 14%

Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 14% 18% 14% 15% 12% 14% 15% 14%




Happy Borrowers – II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I needed to”



Ireland

Voda


Electric

Ireland Airtricity

Weighted Sample 350 279 333 162 117 302 166 247 516 197 350

Strongly Agree 9% 10% 8% 6% 8% 11% 8% 9% 10% 12% 9%

Slightly Agree 16% 17% 20% 12% 18% 20% 13% 17% 16% 20% 16%

Neither/Nor 18% 14% 15% 14% 17% 16% 13% 13% 13% 12% 18%



Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

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Fe

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Jun

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

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Jun

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

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Jun

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

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Jun

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'15

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'15

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 49% 48% 51% 52% 42% 41% 50% 59% 51% 52% 46%

Happiness 49% 44% 53% 55% 47% 46% 47% 51% 46% 51% 47%

Stress 39% 34% 43% 46% 38% 40% 35% 35% 40% 38% 39%

Worry 35% 33% 38% 36% 37% 43% 38% 26% 34% 33% 38%

Boredom 26% 27% 26% 40% 35% 22% 19% 18% 20% 25% 28%

Anxiety 25% 22% 28% 34% 25% 28% 27% 16% 25% 27% 23%

Physical Pain 22% 22% 23% 17% 19% 20% 26% 28% 23% 20% 25%

Sadness 19% 16% 22% 25% 20% 18% 18% 16% 18% 18% 20%

Loneliness 14% 12% 15% 17% 18% 10% 12% 11% 13% 13% 14%

Anger 13% 14% 11% 15% 16% 17% 11% 7% 12% 12% 14%

Fear 9% 7% 11% 16% 10% 10% 7% 5% 7% 10% 9%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:


The Mood of the Nation – IV



Ireland

Voda


Electric

Ireland Airtricity

1000 350 279 333 162 117 302 166 247 516 197

Enjoyment 49% 51% 49% 47% 52% 49% 45% 48% 53% 52% 46%

Happiness 49% 47% 51% 47% 57% 44% 50% 44% 49% 50% 48%

Stress 39% 37% 39% 41% 39% 37% 36% 40% 42% 36% 44%

Worry 35% 34% 34% 35% 31% 41% 34% 33% 41% 34% 32%

Boredom 26% 29% 27% 28% 23% 33% 26% 29% 30% 25% 26%

Anxiety 25% 24% 26% 25% 24% 27% 24% 29% 25% 22% 29%

Physical Pain 22% 23% 25% 21% 22% 19% 24% 18% 23% 24% 23%

Sadness 19% 18% 18% 19% 20% 20% 20% 22% 20% 19% 24%

Loneliness 14% 16% 13% 13% 12% 18% 14% 12% 13% 14% 14%

Anger 13% 14% 11% 14% 11% 12% 11% 13% 16% 12% 11%

Fear 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 10% 8% 9% 11% 8% 7%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Amárach Outlook


Only the beginning…

Our survey at the start of 2015 finds Irish

consumers thinking optimistically but

behaving cautiously.

Gradually some are looking to spend and

borrow, though paying down debt remains a

priority (and will do for some time to come).

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2015.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amárach economic recovery index january 2015

Marketing

economic situation

economic recovery index

economic progress

emotional recovery

stages of recovery

amrach research briefing

emotional progress

clear signs of improvement