amárach economic recovery index january 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

January 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out two years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our „emotional progress‟ towards

recovery alongside our „economic progress‟.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

„happiness‟ and „enjoyment‟ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

January 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 18th-25th January 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Dec’11: 59% Jan’12: 58%

Dec’11: 24% Jan’12: 24%

Dec’11: 15% Jan’12: 16%

Dec’11: 2% Jan’12: 2%

Dec’11: 0% Jan’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ (listed below)

The consumer outlook remains relatively unchanged since the end of 2011:


The Stages of Recovery

JANUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525

The economic

situation in Ireland is

getting worse

57% 55% 58% 42% 53% 64% 62% 60% 53% 60%

The economic

situation is bad but

has stabilized

24% 24% 23% 30% 25% 24% 21% 21% 26% 22%

The economic

situation is bad but

showing a few signs of

improvement

15% 16% 15% 20% 17% 7% 15% 18% 18% 14%

The economic

situation is getting

better and showing

clear signs of

improvement

1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0 1% 1% 1%

The economic

situation is good and

almost fully recovered

from the recession

1% 1% * 1% * 0 1% * 1% *

Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:

Source: Amárach Research, January 2012


Using the answers to the question on „stages of recovery‟ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

In January 2012, the ERI stood at 15.4, up marginally from December‟s 15.1:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09 July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan '12

The Economic Recovery Index



34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41% 43%

52%

41% 42% 43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26% 18%

23% 26% 24% 25% 24%28%

23% 26% 24% 26% 26% 23% 22%21%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55% 54%52% 53%

54% 55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48% 47%53%

47% 48% 48% 47% 49%42% 39%

45%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:



48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45% 45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41% 41%

32% 34%39% 37% 36% 39% 40%

34%39%

34% 38% 38% 34% 33%37%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 2

59%

62% 61% 60% 61% 60%56%

52%

56% 55%53% 55%

53% 51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45% 45% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50%44%

49% 46% 49% 45% 45% 43%46%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly




Running Out of Road

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525

Strongly Agree 8% 7% 9% 9% 10% 4% 5% 10% 11% 6%

Slightly Agree 29% 30% 29% 29% 32% 24% 29% 32% 34% 26%

Neither/Nor 12% 14% 10% 21% 11% 14% 7% 9% 13% 11%

Slightly Disagree 21% 23% 20% 16% 20% 24% 22% 24% 21% 22%

Strongly Disagree 26% 24% 29% 22% 24% 33% 33% 23% 20% 32%


43% 43%42%46%

35%40% 39%

30%35% 36%

33%28% 27%

14%18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13% 12%12%

Oct '0

9

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 3

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21% 21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15%15%

Oct '0

9

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly




% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: January 2010, 2011, 2012 & December 2011

21%13% 14% 14%

Jan'10 Jan'11 Dec'11 Jan'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

66%58% 54%

61%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

26% 22% 27% 24%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

29% 22% 22% 24%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 60% 59% 56% 57%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Rainy Day Syndrome

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525

Strongly Agree 8% 9% 8% 16% 12% 8% 3% 4% 8% 9%

Slightly Agree 16% 18% 14% 23% 21% 17% 9% 10% 18% 14%

Neither/Nor 20% 18% 22% 21% 15% 15% 22% 24% 21% 19%

Slightly Disagree 19% 21% 17% 19% 16% 20% 21% 18% 20% 18%

Strongly Disagree 36% 32% 40% 18% 34% 40% 44% 42% 33% 39%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan '1

2

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry



The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n '1

2

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger



Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 170 224 188 156 266 479 525

Happiness 52% 52% 52% 63% 51% 47% 46% 52% 54% 49%

Enjoyment 50% 51% 50% 53% 49% 41% 48% 59% 53% 48%

Stress 43% 43% 44% 54% 45% 50% 42% 32% 40% 47%

Worry 43% 41% 44% 42% 49% 43% 42% 37% 41% 44%

Anxiety 32% 31% 32% 31% 29% 37% 31% 31% 31% 32%

Boredom 29% 29% 28% 49% 34% 25% 19% 19% 28% 30%

Physical Pain 22% 21% 23% 22% 14% 24% 26% 24% 20% 24%

Sadness 20% 18% 23% 27% 18% 17% 17% 22% 18% 22%

Anger 17% 18% 15% 22% 17% 22% 14% 12% 16% 17%

Fear 12% 13% 11% 15% 12% 13% 8% 12% 9% 15%


% saying Yes: January 2012


Recovery State of Mind

Our first Economic Recovery Index for 2012

points to a continuation of consumer sentiment

and behaviours from late 2011.

Overall, there has been some improvement is a

few of the indicators – e.g.: a bounce back in

the percentage optimistic despite the recession.

We have extended our analysis of components

of the ERI to include social class as well as age

and gender – and the differences are marked.

The message is clear: businesses targeting

Irish consumers this year will have to segment

their target market – not just in terms of

standard demographics, but also in terms of

states of mind.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international clients.

Our team of 30 research & support staff have

worked with most of Ireland‟s top 200

companies. Every year we survey over

100,000 people at home and abroad, as well

as running hundreds of focus groups.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique

field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index january 2012

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