amárach economic recovery index december 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

December 2015 Focus on: Energy Suppliers

© Amárach Research


Christmas Clear

Five years from its lowest ebb and our

Economic Recovery Index continues to stay

close to record levels.

Right through the second half of 2015, the

ERI stayed at 40 or above – and looks set to

stay there for the time being.

This month we’ve focused on the attitudes

and intentions of customers of Ireland’s

energy providers as well as looking at

spending intentions going into the New Year.

All that remains is for us to wish you and

yours a Happy & Peaceful Christmas and we

look forward to tracking Ireland’s recovery

with you in 2016.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to December 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 7th to 16th December 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was five years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-december-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has levelled off in Q4 2015, but remains near record high levels:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, December 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

The ERI has stayed above the 40 level for the second half of 2015


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3

Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0

Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1

Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5

Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2

Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9

Nov-15 11 30 35 21 3 43.7

Dec-15 13 30 34 19 4 43.3

There has been a sea-change in economic outlook since December 2010


Economic Outlook

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement by electricity provider:


December 2015 TOTAL Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gáis Airtricity

Pre pay

power Energia

1000 480 180 179 40 49

The economic situation in Ireland

is getting worse 12% 12% 13% 11% 18% 8%

The economic situation is bad but

has stabilized 28% 34% 21% 26% 40% 20%

The economic situation is bad but

showing a few signs of

improvement

32% 31% 33% 38% 22% 39%

The economic situation is getting

better and showing clear signs of

improvement

18% 17% 23% 17% 5% 22%

The economic situation is good

and almost fully recovered from the

recession

4% 4% 6% 4% 6% 2%

ERI Score 43.3 41.5 46.7 44.6 33.5 47

Customer Net Promoter Score -24 -25 -21 -32 13 -19

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Dec-09 43 45 51 56

Dec-10 23 34 41 45

Dec-11 22 33 39 43

Dec-12 26 32 39 43

Dec-13 37 40 49 43

Dec-14 40 42 52 43

Nov-15 43 47 56 45

Dec-15 43 43 51 45

Most indicators have stabilised, but are still prone to fluctuations


Switching Attitudes

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by electricity provider):

“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”



Ireland

Bord

Gáis Airtricity

Pre pay

power Energia

1000 480 180 179 40 49

Strongly Agree 31% 30% 33% 33% 37% 39%

Slightly Agree 35% 36% 33% 35% 28% 39%

Neither/Nor 20% 20% 20% 22% 17% 16%

Slightly Disagree 6% 7% 6% 4% 12% 4%

Strongly Disagree 3% 4% 2% 3% 0 2%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Dec-09 17 26 57 29

Dec-10 11 23 58 21

Dec-11 14 27 56 22

Dec-12 15 22 54 22

Dec-13 22 26 55 26

Dec-14 26 23 55 23

Nov-15 31 27 54 27

Dec-15 30 25 52 26

Spending sentiment remains strong in the run up to Christmas


Spending Intentions


54%

18%

11%

60%

15%

7%

Travel abroad Buy a new car Buy a new house

% of all adults intending to make purchase in next 6 months

December '14 December '15

Holiday spending set to increase sharply going into 2016


Spoilt for Choice

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by electricity provider):

“I have more choices than before when it comes to products & services”



Ireland

Bord

Gáis Airtricity

Pre pay

power Energia

1000 480 180 179 40 49

Strongly Agree 20% 19% 21% 20% 25% 24%

Slightly Agree 38% 40% 37% 40% 30% 36%

Neither/Nor 26% 24% 24% 31% 25% 27%

Slightly Disagree 8% 8% 11% 3% 7% 6%

Strongly Disagree 3% 5% 2% 2% 7% 2%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

4F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

5F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

4F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

5F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III


TOTAL Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gáis Airtricity

Pre pay

power Energia

TOTAL 1000 480 180 179 40 49

Enjoyment 45% 47% 48% 46% 52% 40%

Happiness 44% 43% 48% 46% 43% 43%

Stress 35% 34% 37% 31% 59% 36%

Worry 33% 31% 39% 29% 42% 27%

Anxiety 30% 29% 38% 24% 42% 18%

Physical Pain 24% 23% 27% 19% 20% 29%

Sadness 21% 21% 21% 18% 24% 18%

Boredom 20% 23% 19% 17% 17% 12%

Anger 16% 15% 18% 13% 31% 21%

Loneliness 14% 16% 13% 15% 13% 5%

Fear 11% 11% 13% 8% 19% 6%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % Yes by energy provider:

Amárach Outlook


Momentum

2015 has been a good year when it comes to

tracking the recovery through our Economic

Recovery Index.

We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress

into 2016 – and we’ll keep you posted about

Ireland’s consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

Trends Report

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amárach economic recovery index december 2015

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