amárach economic recovery index november 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

November 2015 Focus on: Supermarkets

© Amárach Research


Christmas Cheer

Our Economic Recovery Index bottomed out

at its lowest point exactly five years ago in

November 2010, when the Troika came calling

to Ireland.

Five years on and the contrast could not be

more stark for all of the sentiment and

shopping measures that we have been

tracking since April 2009.

This month we’ve focused on the attitudes and

intentions of customers of Ireland’s Main

Supermarkets.

In the run up to Christmas 2015 it certainly

looks like gloom has given way to – if not

boom – then at least to a quantitatively and

qualitatively better outlook than in the dark

days of Winter 2010.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to November 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 19th to 26th November 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was five years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-november-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI continued its surge in November, reaching another record high level:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, November 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

the ERI has stayed above the 40 level for five months in a row…


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8

Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3

Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3

Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6

Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6

Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9

Oct-15 11 29 35 22 3 43.9

Nov-15 11 30 35 21 3 43.7

a majority of consumers see clear signs of improvement


Economic Outlook

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement by Main Supermarket:


November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl

1000 298 160 103 233 169

The economic situation in Ireland

is getting worse 11% 8% 10% 13% 14% 8%

The economic situation is bad but

has stabilized 30% 30% 29% 27% 30% 29%

The economic situation is bad but

showing a few signs of

improvement

35% 31% 32% 33% 33% 42%

The economic situation is getting

better and showing clear signs of

improvement

21% 26% 23% 18% 17% 16%

The economic situation is good

and almost fully recovered from the

recession

3% 3% 4% 5% 1% 1%

ERI Score 43.7 46.5 45.1 43.0 39.5 42.6

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Nov-09 41 45 51 52

Nov-10 18 32 33 45

Nov-11 23 34 42 45

Nov-12 27 34 44 43

Nov-13 36 42 49 44

Nov-14 40 38 52 39

Oct-15 42 46 54 45

Nov-15 43 47 56 45

positive sentiment is rising, though improvement is gradual…


Spending Trending

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by Main Supermarket):

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



1000 298 160 103 233 169

Strongly Agree 10% 10% 10% 6% 11% 10%

Slightly Agree 21% 25% 22% 22% 16% 23%

Neither/Nor 23% 22% 24% 31% 23% 20%

Slightly Disagree 22% 20% 20% 21% 26% 25%

Strongly Disagree 20% 20% 19% 17% 21% 19%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Nov-09 16 27 62 28

Nov-10 11 24 50 20

Nov-11 15 26 55 23

Nov-12 16 25 53 22

Nov-13 22 24 54 26

Nov-14 26 24 54 28

Oct-15 33 27 51 28

Nov-15 31 27 54 27

…spending sentiment has remained at a positive level in recent months…


Driving Spending


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

Apr-

09

Jun-0

9

Aug-0

9

Oct-

09

De

c-0

9

Feb

-10

Apr-

10

Jun-1

0

Aug-1

0

Oct-

10

De

c-1

0

Feb

-11

Apr-

11

Jun-1

1

Aug-1

1

Oct-

11

De

c-1

1

Feb

-12

Apr-

12

Jun-1

2

Aug-1

2

Oct-

12

De

c-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Apr-

13

Jun-1

3

Aug-1

3

Oct-

13

De

c-1

3

Feb

-14

Apr-

14

Jun-1

4

Aug-1

4

Oct-

14

De

c-1

4

Feb

-15

Apr-

15

Jun-1

5

Aug-1

5

Oct-

15

As Economic Outlook Improves, Spending Improves As Well

Economic Recovery Index (LHS) I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago: % agree (RHS)


Price Driven


“I always buy the lowest price products or services”



1000 298 160 103 233 169

Strongly Agree 20% 23% 14% 8% 25% 21%

Slightly Agree 31% 33% 26% 34% 31% 27%

Neither/Nor 23% 21% 27% 25% 20% 27%




Buying Irish


“I always buy Irish when I can”



1000 298 160 103 233 169

Strongly Agree 22% 22% 27% 29% 17% 20%

Slightly Agree 31% 30% 34% 38% 29% 30%

Neither/Nor 24% 26% 20% 19% 28% 22%



Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

4F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

5F

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

v

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III


TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl

TOTAL 1000 298 160 103 233 169

Happiness 51% 49% 53% 51% 52% 52%

Enjoyment 52% 50% 51% 48% 52% 58%

Stress 39% 40% 37% 36% 45% 36%

Worry 35% 33% 32% 36% 41% 34%

Anxiety 27% 27% 24% 26% 35% 22%

Boredom 23% 23% 21% 17% 28% 22%

Physical Pain 24% 22% 19% 29% 29% 23%

Sadness 21% 21% 20% 24% 26% 16%

Loneliness 15% 17% 12% 15% 16% 15%

Anger 15% 14% 12% 13% 19% 12%

Fear 9% 9% 9% 8% 12% 7%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % Yes by Main Supermarket

Amárach Outlook


Momentum

With just one month of 2015 remaining, our

Economic Recovery Index continues to

sustain the momentum we saw at the start of

the summer.

We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress

over the rest of the year – and keep you

posted about Ireland’s consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

Trends Report

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amárach economic recovery index november 2015

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