amárach economic recovery index january 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing January 2013

© Amárach Research


Emotional Bounce

2013 has got off to a good start – or at

least a ‘less bad’ one (and much better

than last year).

A number of the indicators we track have

picked up – including willingness to

spend (highest since June 2010), and

willingness to borrow (highest since May

2012).

Our overall ERI index is up from 15.4 in

January 2012 to 20.9 in January 2013,

again indicating some improvement in

sentiment.

All in all, our research points to the

continued resilience of the Irish

consumer (a theme picked up in the

World Economic Forum’s recent report)

– suggesting that we are ‘recovery-

ready’ as and when it finally happens…

WEF Global Risk Report 2013: http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2013-eighth-edition


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

January 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 14th to 18th January 2013 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Dec’12: 49% Jan’13: 45%

Dec’12: 28% Jan’13: 30%

Dec’12: 20% Jan’13: 21%

Dec’12: 3% Jan’13: 3%

Dec’12: 0% Jan’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

Our ERI Index picked up in January 2013, with fewer than half feeling the economic situation in

Ireland is getting worse:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The weakening we saw in the second half of 2012 has finally reversed:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, January 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09 July Sept Nov Jan'10 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'11 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan '12 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'13


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44%42%43%46%

48%41%43%

52%

41% 42%43%42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%

26%30%31%25%25%27%27%24%26%27%

32%

Ap

r '0

9Ju

nJu

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'13

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57%59%65%

58%60%62%55%

51%51%

61%

56% 54%52% 53%54%

55%

50%

46% 44%33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%43%45%47%46%48%

44%39%47%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'13

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Recovery Outlook 2

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47%43%

47%44%

45%

47%46%

41% 41%32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%

34%33%37%

41%40%42%38%36%38%39%

35%38%34%32%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%62%61% 60%61%60%56%

52%56%55%

53% 55%53%51%

50%

55%54%

53% 52%45%45%

49%45%47%48%50%

44%49%46%49%

45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%43%46%

42%44%43%43%47%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Right now it seems the recession is affecting other people more than me: % agree strongly/slightly


Getting Through

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by gender, household income &

presence and age of children):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


January 2013 TOTAL Male Female Under

25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

AB

C1

C2

DE

Has

Child

ren

Weighted Sample 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 658 494

Strongly Agree 16% 9% 18% 14% 7% 11% 13% 13% 12% 13% 16%

Slightly Agree 26% 29% 29% 26% 24% 23% 33% 33% 22% 26% 26%

Neither/Nor 13% 10% 12% 9% 9% 11% 14% 11% 11% 11% 13%

Slightly Disagree 23% 24% 24% 27% 28% 20% 18% 23% 24% 22% 23%

Strongly Disagree 21% 25% 15% 21% 30% 31% 21% 19% 27% 25% 21%


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: January 2011, 2012, 2013 & December 2012

22% 24% 22% 27%

Jan'11 Jan'12 Dec'12 Jan'13

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago

58% 61% 62% 64%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

22% 24% 22% 27%


I am saving a lot more than before because of the

recession

22% 24% 22% 27%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

59% 57% 54% 57%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Purses & Wallets

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

AB

C1

C2

DE

Has

Child

ren

Weighted Sample 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 658 494

Strongly Agree 6% 9% 4% 14% 6% 3% 3% 6% 7% 6% 6%

Slightly Agree 15% 19% 12% 22% 18% 12% 10% 14% 15% 16% 15%

Neither/Nor 14% 16% 13% 18% 13% 9% 11% 19% 16% 13% 13%

Slightly Disagree 25% 20% 29% 19% 26% 26% 25% 25% 28% 21% 24%

Strongly Disagree 38% 35% 41% 27% 36% 48% 47% 35% 34% 42% 41%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-1

3

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

AB

C1

C2

DE

Has

Child

ren

Weighted Sample 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 658 494

Enjoyment 49% 49% 49% 49% 46% 44% 49% 56% 55% 44% 48%

Happiness 51% 48% 53% 61% 53% 51% 46% 45% 52% 49% 49%

Stress 43% 41% 45% 48% 49% 51% 40% 31% 45% 41% 43%

Worry 43% 39% 48% 46% 44% 53% 44% 35% 42% 45% 43%

Anxiety 32% 33% 32% 36% 38% 32% 27% 28% 32% 32% 32%

Boredom 29% 27% 31% 51% 29% 32% 24% 16% 27% 31% 22%

Physical Pain 26% 25% 26% 29% 24% 22% 22% 30% 25% 26% 28%

Sadness 23% 19% 26% 31% 32% 20% 20% 14% 23% 22% 23%

Anger 19% 20% 18% 25% 20% 21% 14% 14% 18% 19% 19%

Fear 12% 10% 14% 18% 16% 11% 12% 7% 12% 13% 11%


% saying Yes: January 2013


ERI Resources

We have created a dedicated resource

on the Amárach website for those

interested in exploring our Economic

Recovery Index further.

It includes links to previous issues as

well as to a spreadsheet containing

monthly values for all the component

parts of the ERI – and more besides –

going right back to April 2009.

There is also a link to a special data

visualisation facility we have created in

partnership with Delphi Analytics.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index january 2013

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