amárach economic recovery index april 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

3rd Anniversary Edition

April 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

April 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 20th to 25th April 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Mar’12: 43% Apr’12: 49%

Mar’12: 29% Apr’12: 27%

Mar’12: 24% Apr’12: 21%

Mar’12: 4% Apr’12: 3%

Mar’12: 0% Apr’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The consumer outlook fell back in April, after improving in March:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI fell back to 19.4 in April, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, April 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr'09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12

Feb Mar Apr'12


The Stages of Recovery

April 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

The economic

situation in Ireland is

getting worse

49% 51% 45% 33% 47% 56% 55% 48% 43% 53%

The economic

situation is bad but

has stabilized

27% 23% 31% 36% 32% 27% 18% 23% 31% 24%

The economic

situation is bad but

showing a few signs of

improvement

21% 21% 21% 24% 16% 14% 23% 26% 22% 19%

The economic

situation is getting

better and showing

clear signs of

improvement

3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%

The economic

situation is good and

almost fully recovered

from the recession

* * 0 1% 0 0 0 0 * 0

Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:



Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41%43%

52%

41% 42% 43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26% 18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%

30%31%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55%54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Recovery Outlook 2



48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%34%33%37%41%40%42%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%

62% 61%60%61%60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53% 51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%49%45%45%43%46%49%48%50%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly


Recovery Outlook 3



43% 43%42%46%

35%40% 39%

30%35% 36%

33%28% 27%

14%

18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16%23%24%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21%21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22%25%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: April 2009*, 2010, 2011, 2012 & March 2012 * not all statements asked in 2009

15%21%

14% 18% 20%

Apr'09 Apr'10 Apr'11 Mar'12 Apr'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

64% 60% 62% 66%

Apr'10 Apr'11 Mar'12 Apr'12

Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

28% 27% 29% 30%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

31%24% 24% 28%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

59% 58% 55% 59%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators

Source: Amárach Research, February 2012


Feeling Flaithulach

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Strongly Agree 5% 8% 2% 6% 4% 6% 3% 6% 5% 5%

Slightly Agree 15% 18% 13% 15% 16% 16% 11% 17% 12% 19%

Neither/Nor 14% 15% 14% 23% 15% 9% 10% 14% 17% 11%

Slightly Disagree 26% 23% 29% 27% 29% 25% 24% 23% 30% 22%

Strongly Disagree 39% 36% 42% 28% 35% 43% 51% 39% 36% 41%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523

Happiness 55% 56% 55% 54% 55% 52% 58% 57% 54% 56%

Enjoyment 54% 53% 56% 49% 55% 49% 61% 56% 58% 51%

Stress 45% 42% 48% 51% 55% 48% 46% 30% 49% 41%

Worry 40% 37% 44% 47% 42% 39% 42% 35% 40% 40%

Anxiety 30% 26% 34% 36% 33% 30% 29% 25% 32% 28%

Boredom 27% 27% 27% 50% 31% 23% 22% 15% 26% 28%

Physical Pain 26% 27% 25% 22% 27% 19% 26% 31% 21% 29%

Sadness 18% 16% 20% 28% 18% 14% 13% 17% 17% 19%

Anger 15% 16% 14% 20% 15% 16% 16% 10% 12% 18%

Fear 12% 12% 13% 15% 19% 10% 11% 9% 12% 13%


% saying Yes: April 2012


Ups & Downs

We have been tracking the mood of Ireland’s

consumers for three years now – from the

depth of the recession back in 2009.

Much has changed – though not everything: the

Irish people have retained a degree of zen-like

emotional stability throughout the past three

years, even as the fortunes of the economy

have fluctuated.

The modest reversal of the improving trend

since the start of 2012 is one to watch: although

we are generally more positive about the state

of the economy than we were three years ago,

we have not returned to the levels of

confidence about it all ‘ending soon’ that

prevailed not so long ago.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international clients.

Our team of 30 research & support staff have

worked with most of Ireland’s top 200

companies. Every year we survey over

100,000 people at home and abroad, as well

as running hundreds of focus groups.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique

field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index april 2012

Technology