amárach economic recovery index march 2016

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

March 2016Focus on: Main Car Insurance & Pharmacy Brands

© Amárach Research


Turning Point?

It’s nearly seven years since we started

tracking the Economic Recovery Index and

at moment it remains high but off its peak.

This month we’ve focused on the attitudes

and intentions of customers of Ireland’s top

two car insurance and pharmacy brands,

and we introduce a new section in which we

profile customers of each provider on key

measures such as NPS, switching intentions

& spend.

The recent weakening in the ERI possibly

points to wider vulnerabilities in the

consumer economy – we’ll know fairly

quickly if it’s a wobble or a turning point.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to March 2016.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 18th to 24th March 2016 inclusive.

See how bad it was six years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-march-2010

Top Two Car Insurance

& Pharmacy Brands

Customer Profile


Profile of Customers by:

Main Car Insurance/Pharmacy Brands

Source: PlanR Database, March 2016

March 2016All Car

InsurersAviva Axa

All

Pharma

-cies

BootsSam

McCauley

Sample 837 154 127 907 301 56

Average spend

€ per year (insurance)

€ per month (pharma)€543 €485 €700 €38 €33 €37

Net Promoter Score -17 -12 -18 4 6 -4

% likely to switch main

brand in next 6 months26% 27% 22% 15% 20% 26%

% ever recommended their

main brand48% 46% 51% 55% 59% 54%

Economic Recovery Index - 42.9 41.2 - 41.4 43.2

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has levelled off after reaching its highest level ever at the start of 2016:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, March 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'16

Mar

The ERI has not returned to its January 2016 peak


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5

Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2

Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3

Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0

Mar-14 19 34 36 10 1 34.7

Mar-15 16 30 36 17 1 39.5

Feb-16 12 28 35 21 4 43.4

Mar-16 13 30 35 20 2 42.2

Nevertheless the ERI remains above the 40 level

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Mar-10 42 43 54 55

Mar-11 25 36 48 47

Mar-12 30 40 50 48

Mar-13 30 40 44 47

Mar-14 37 40 49 45

Mar-15 40 40 48 40

Feb-16 41 44 55 46

Mar-16 37 44 52 44

Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ remains flat


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Mar-10 18 25 61 30

Mar-11 13 23 58 23

Mar-12 18 29 55 24

Mar-13 19 27 53 25

Mar-14 23 24 58 26

Mar-15 26 27 51 24

Feb-16 30 26 56 26

Mar-16 28 25 55 26

Spending sentiment has weakened in recent months

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2016


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

Ju

n

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2016


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

Ju

n

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Apr

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Amárach Outlook


2016 Beginning

Q1 2016 has got off to a good start as

measured by our Economic Recovery Index.

We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress

into 2016 – and we’ll keep you posted about

Ireland’s consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

Trends Report

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amárach economic recovery index march 2016

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