amárach economic recovery index july 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

July 2014

© Amárach Research


Flying Ahead

Despite aggressive seagulls, it appears Irish

consumers have taken to the good July

weather with gusto.

This month’s edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has returned to its historic

peak reached in March earlier this year.

Our index also reveals the lowest percentage

of adults who think the economic situation in

Ireland is getting worse – just 18% think this,

down from a peak of 80% in October 2010.

The recent momentum in consumer sentiment

has certainly continued, boding well for

recovery in the Autumn once everyone (and

the seagulls) have had enough of ice cream…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to July

2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 14th-20th July 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – details

at the end of this report.

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index has remained fairly constant through May and July 2014:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, July 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

the ERI has returned to its previous peak in March 2014


A Matter of Measurement

June ’14: 24% July ’14: 18%

June ’14: 33% July ’14: 36%

June ’14: 35% July ’14: 35%

June ’14: 8% July ’14: 10%

June ’14: 1% July ’14: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is at its lowest level ever:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0

Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0

Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3

Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5

Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3

Jun-14 24 33 35 8 1 32.5

Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7

the highest ever level for ‘getting worse’ was 80% in October 2010


Uneven Recovery

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, class, Dublin)


July 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 17% 18% 17% 13% 17% 21% 21% 16% 19% 14% 20%


is bad but has stabilized 35% 37% 34% 35% 40% 38% 30% 34% 36% 36% 35%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

34% 31% 36% 38% 27% 28% 37% 39% 31% 35% 33%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

10% 12% 9% 9% 11% 9% 11% 10% 9% 12% 8%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

* 0 1% 1% 1% 0 0 0 1% * *

ERI Score 34.7 34.7 34.8 36.2 33.9 31.6 35.1 36.6 33.2 36.9 32.8

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jul-09 42 47 58 60

Jul-10 42 47 55 55

Jul-11 26 39 48 49

Jul-12 27 38 45 43

Jul-13 27 39 47 45

Jun-14 37 42 50 45

Jul-14 37 41 48 44

people are feeling a little more optimistic and comfortable – but only a little


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jul-09 14

Jul-10 20 27 62 27

Jul-11 17 26 59 26

Jul-12 18 25 56 25

Jul-13 19 25 56 23

Jun-14 25 26 54 26

Jul-14 23 24 54 23

just under one in four are more relaxed about spending


Feeling Insulated?

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than me”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 18% 19% 16% 21% 17% 9% 18% 21% 15% 23% 13%

Slightly Agree 26% 26% 26% 27% 22% 27% 25% 29% 29% 29% 24%

Neither/Nor 19% 21% 17% 18% 24% 25% 13% 15% 20% 20% 19%

Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 21% 18% 25% 18% 22% 17% 18% 17% 22%

Strongly Disagree 15% 14% 17% 12% 11% 19% 19% 17% 17% 11% 20%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy

the lowest

price products

or services

I am always on

the lookout for

opportunities to

switch to

cheaper

suppliers

I have more

choice than

before when it

comes to

products and

services

I always buy

Irish when I

can

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51

Jun-14 55 70 58 52

Jul-14 58 72 58 48


Still Sensitive

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am always on the look out for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 38% 37% 38% 38% 31% 45% 45% 35% 39% 36% 40%

Slightly Agree 34% 33% 35% 34% 38% 31% 31% 35% 34% 36% 32%

Neither/Nor 16% 18% 14% 17% 18% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16% 16%

Slightly Disagree 6% 6% 6% 3% 9% 3% 2% 8% 5% 6% 5%

Strongly Disagree 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 54% 54% 53% 55% 47% 50% 57% 59% 52% 58% 49%

Happiness 54% 54% 54% 59% 52% 56% 51% 52% 52% 59% 49%

Stress 39% 37% 41% 47% 44% 44% 35% 29% 42% 38% 40%

Worry 34% 31% 37% 34% 42% 35% 34% 26% 34% 32% 36%

Boredom 29% 27% 32% 48% 32% 28% 21% 21% 27% 27% 31%

Anxiety 26% 23% 28% 31% 33% 24% 20% 21% 29% 24% 27%

Physical Pain 24% 24% 25% 20% 22% 22% 29% 28% 24% 23% 25%

Sadness 20% 18% 23% 24% 25% 17% 20% 16% 21% 18% 23%

Anger 15% 15% 15% 16% 18% 21% 11% 10% 17% 14% 16%

Fear 10% 8% 12% 12% 13% 11% 7% 8% 11% 7% 12%


% saying Yes: July 2014

Amárach Outlook


Dive In

Gradually, gradually comes the recovery – but

did we mention it would be gradual?

Moods are catching, so if the current emotional

and intentional momentum continues we can

expect to see a gradual increase in the share

of consumers more prepared to dive into the

recovery as it becomes more manifest.

We hope this edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has given you some food for

thought about the opportunities that lie ahead

– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you

on how to leverage the new momentum.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index july 2014

Economy & Finance