amárach economic recovery index may 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

May 2015

© Amárach Research


Better Than Before

We have been measuring the Economic

Recovery Index every month since April 2009:

a lot has happened in the meantime.

By a happy coincidence, our Index recently

reached its highest level yet, finally breaking

through the ‘40 barrier’ – and it remains close

to that peak this month.

So all-in-all a very positive picture indeed, and

a much better place to be in when compared

to some of the darker days we tracked back in

2009 and 2010…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out nearly six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to May 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 12th to 20th May 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was nearly six years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Having broken through the 40 mark last month, the ERI fell back a little this month:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, May 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'15

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

the ERI has held on to gains since the start of the year…


A Matter of Measurement

Apr ’15: 14% May ’15: 14%

Apr ’15: 30% May ’15: 34%

Apr ’15: 37% May ’15: 34%

Apr ’15: 17% May ’15: 17%

Apr ’15: 2% May ’15: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

A solid majority of Irish people now say that the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0

May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8

May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1

May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2

May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3

May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4

Apr-15 14 30 37 17 2 40.2

May-15 14 34 34 17 1 39.4

May 2015 remains close to last month’s peak, more than twice six years ago…

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

May-09 41 48 59 62

May-10 40 44 53 51

May-11 28 40 53 50

May-12 25 38 47 45

May-13 25 39 45 46

May-14 38 39 49 45

Apr-15 46 45 57 44

May-15 39 43 52 41

key financial wellbeing indicators fell back a little from April’s peaks…


Unevenly Distributed

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):

“Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me”


May 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Strongly Agree 13% 13% 13% 19% 11% 11% 9% 15% 14% 18% 9%

Slightly Agree 28% 26% 30% 31% 28% 26% 22% 31% 31% 29% 27%

Neither/Nor 21% 22% 19% 19% 22% 24% 21% 18% 24% 20% 21%

Slightly Disagree 20% 20% 19% 17% 19% 22% 20% 20% 16% 19% 20%

Strongly Disagree 14% 15% 14% 6% 15% 13% 26% 14% 10% 10% 18%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

May-09 15

May-10 19 26 61 28

May-11 17 26 61 26

May-12 18 27 56 27

May-13 18 24 56 24

May-14 23 23 59 25

Apr-15 30 26 51 28

May-15 27 24 51 24

the % more relaxed about spending remains well above trend…


Relaxed Spenders

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”

% Agree: April 2009 to May 2015


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May


Happy Borrowers

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Strongly Agree 7% 9% 5% 6% 9% 9% 4% 6% 8% 8% 6%

Slightly Agree 17% 20% 14% 17% 18% 21% 19% 13% 23% 20% 15%

Neither/Nor 15% 17% 14% 13% 17% 21% 13% 13% 16% 16% 15%

Slightly Disagree 22% 19% 26% 27% 21% 24% 25% 19% 21% 24% 22%

Strongly Disagree 33% 31% 35% 27% 28% 22% 37% 48% 28% 29% 37%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 460 540

Enjoyment 46% 46% 47% 48% 36% 40% 49% 57% 42% 50% 44%

Happiness 43% 41% 45% 50% 38% 39% 44% 44% 42% 47% 40%

Stress 38% 35% 41% 51% 38% 40% 40% 27% 36% 39% 37%

Worry 32% 27% 37% 36% 33% 34% 37% 25% 36% 29% 36%

Anxiety 27% 23% 30% 42% 26% 24% 25% 20% 27% 26% 27%

Physical Pain 25% 26% 25% 19% 24% 24% 24% 32% 26% 21% 29%

Boredom 22% 22% 23% 40% 24% 22% 19% 12% 24% 21% 24%

Sadness 15% 13% 18% 19% 17% 16% 18% 11% 14% 12% 19%

Loneliness 14% 13% 15% 20% 12% 15% 17% 9% 15% 11% 16%

Anger 13% 14% 12% 12% 18% 16% 12% 8% 13% 11% 15%

Fear 8% 7% 9% 14% 9% 7% 8% 4% 9% 8% 8%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Amárach Outlook


Momentum

After six long years, it’s good to see real

momentum coming through in our Economic

Recovery Index – consumers are loosening

their purse and wallet strings, and there

seems to be a genuine willingness to spend.

We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress in

the months ahead – and keep you posted

about Ireland’s consumers & their needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2015.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amárach economic recovery index may 2015

Lifestyle

economic situation

economic recovery index

economic progress

emotional recovery

stages of recovery

amrach research briefing

consumer impact

emotional progress