amárach economic recovery index november 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

November 2012 additional analysis by:

main bank, supermarket, mobile network, daily newspaper

© Amárach Research


The Ides of November?

What is it about November? We’ve been

tracking the emotional wellbeing of the nation

since April 2009, and every November we see

the gap between positive and negative

emotions closing (see slide 15).

It may be the weather and the shorter days, but

if you are in marketing then it does beg the

question: will your brand communications cut

through the seasonal gloom?

We hope so – and we hope you find this

month’s issue of our Economic Recovery Index

helpful as you plan for 2013.

We’ve even broken out the results by the

customers of main banks, supermarkets,

mobile networks and daily newspapers – which

might help you plan your ‘emotional strategy’ in

the months ahead.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

November 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 11th to 17th November 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Oct’12: 48% Nov’12: 47%

Oct’12: 28% Nov’12: 30%

Oct’12: 21% Nov’12: 20%

Oct’12: 3% Nov’12: 3%

Oct’12: 0% Nov’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

Our ERI Index weakened slightly in November 2012 on the previous month:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has continued to weaken steadily since July – though November’s index is still up

on November 2011:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, November 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr'09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'10

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr'11

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12

Feb Mar Apr'12

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41%43%

52%

41% 42%43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%

28%23%

26%24%26%26%23%22%21%

26%30%31%

25%25%27%27%24%26%27%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57%59%65%

58%60%62%55%

51%51%

61%

56% 54%52% 53%54%

55%

50%

46% 44%33%

41%48%

44%48%47%

53%47%48%48%47%49%

42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%43%45%47%46%48%

44%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Recovery Outlook 2

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47%43%

47%44%

45%

47%46%

41% 41%32%34%39%37%36%

39%40%34%

39%34%

38%38%34%33%

37%41%40%42%

38%36%38%39%35%

38%34%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:

% agree strongly/slightly

59%62%61% 60%61%60%56%52%

56%55%

53% 55%53%51%50%

55%54%

53% 52%45%45%49%

45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%

49%45%45%43%

46%49%48%50%

45%45%43%46%

42%44%43%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r'12

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly


Heads Down: 1

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


November 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525

Strongly Agree 8% 9% 7% 13% 6% 4% 7% 10% 11% 6%

Slightly Agree 26% 24% 28% 27% 23% 24% 26% 30% 30% 23%

Neither/Nor 14% 14% 14% 15% 16% 12% 9% 16% 15% 13%

Slightly Disagree 24% 27% 20% 21% 24% 24% 26% 23% 21% 26%

Strongly Disagree 25% 23% 28% 21% 27% 31% 30% 20% 22% 28%


Heads Down: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper –

who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


November 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco Dunne

Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78

Strongly Agree 8% 9% 8% 7% 10% 7% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 11% 6%

Slightly Agree 26% 28% 25% 27% 27% 28% 25% 23% 25% 27% 37% 27% 31%

Neither/Nor 14% 13% 15% 14% 16% 12% 11% 16% 14% 13% 12% 14% 13%

Slightly Disagree 24% 22% 27% 24% 23% 26% 24% 27% 24% 24% 26% 25% 22%

Strongly Disagree 25% 26% 22% 26% 22% 23% 32% 26% 26% 26% 14% 23% 26%


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: November 2010, 2011, 2012 & October 2012

11% 15% 16% 16%

Nov'10 Nov'11 Oct'12 Nov'12

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago

53% 59% 62% 61%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

24% 26% 25% 25%


I am saving a lot more than before because of the

recession

20% 23% 25% 22%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to

50% 55% 56% 53%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Spendthrift: 1


“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525

Strongly Agree 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 1%

Slightly Agree 13% 13% 13% 20% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11% 14%

Neither/Nor 17% 19% 15% 20% 15% 15% 15% 19% 18% 17%




Spendthrift: 2



“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Time

s

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78

Strongly Agree 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4%

Slightly Agree 13% 13% 11% 11% 16% 11% 9% 13% 11% 12% 13% 13% 18%

Neither/Nor 17% 16% 18% 17% 18% 16% 16% 15% 15% 19% 24% 15% 12%




Rainy Day: 1


“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525

Strongly Agree 9% 8% 9% 19% 8% 7% 7% 5% 10% 7%

Slightly Agree 16% 16% 16% 21% 22% 15% 10% 13% 18% 14%

Neither/Nor 19% 19% 19% 20% 16% 18% 17% 23% 21% 18%




Rainy Day: 2



“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”



Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Time

s

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78

Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 8% 10% 8% 7% 8% 7% 10% 11% 11% 8%

Slightly Agree 16% 17% 15% 18% 16% 17% 13% 14% 15% 17% 21% 19% 17%

Neither/Nor 19% 19% 19% 17% 20% 20% 19% 24% 17% 21% 23% 20% 16%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r'1

2

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods: 1



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1005 496 508 170 224 188 157 266 480 525

Enjoyment 53% 52% 53% 52% 45% 46% 52% 64% 57% 49%

Happiness 49% 44% 54% 59% 44% 42% 42% 56% 52% 47%

Stress 46% 42% 50% 62% 56% 49% 44% 26% 47% 45%

Worry 43% 41% 45% 47% 54% 36% 48% 32% 44% 41%

Anxiety 31% 29% 33% 38% 32% 30% 36% 24% 34% 29%

Boredom 26% 28% 25% 47% 27% 24% 25% 15% 23% 29%

Physical Pain 25% 27% 24% 27% 24% 20% 26% 29% 24% 27%

Sadness 21% 20% 22% 28% 21% 12% 20% 23% 21% 21%

Anger 18% 19% 17% 21% 22% 18% 17% 13% 19% 17%

Fear 12% 11% 13% 14% 16% 11% 14% 7% 13% 12%


% saying Yes: November 2012


Changing Moods: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper:

did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: November 2012


November

2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB Tesco

Dunne

Stores Aldi O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Weighted Sample 1005 338 298 154 357 159 183 245 369 202 196 198 78

Enjoyment 49% 50% 62% 49% 53% 54% 51% 56% 50% 56% 54% 59% 49%

Happiness 48% 49% 48% 47% 54% 53% 49% 49% 53% 52% 51% 42% 48%

Stress 45% 49% 44% 44% 47% 50% 42% 44% 54% 37% 45% 43% 45%

Worry 41% 44% 43% 44% 40% 45% 39% 43% 47% 41% 43% 43% 41%

Anxiety 33% 29% 28% 33% 35% 29% 28% 32% 35% 32% 32% 30% 33%

Boredom 28% 24% 23% 28% 25% 26% 25% 24% 29% 19% 21% 31% 28%

Physical Pain 24% 24% 24% 25% 16% 29% 24% 24% 25% 23% 24% 33% 24%

Sadness 22% 25% 14% 23% 20% 22% 22% 20% 22% 20% 20% 22% 22%

Anger 20% 19% 13% 18% 12% 18% 16% 17% 19% 18% 16% 15% 20%

Fear 14% 11% 10% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 12% 12% 14% 14%

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index november 2012

Documents

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monthlyeconomic recovery

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economic progress

eri index