amárach economic recovery index april 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing April 2013 (including analysis by main supermarket; TV service;

electricity provider; mobile phone network)

© Amárach Research


Four Years On

We’ve been tracking the mood of the nation

every month since April 2009.

This issue of our Economic Recovery Index

marks the fourth anniversary of the series.

We’d like to tell you things are much better

than in April 2009… but we can’t.

This month’s report shows that sentiment

deteriorated in April 2013 – with some indices

falling back to the lows we saw late last year.

We have taken on board your feedback and

added new series in relation to switching,

Irishness, price sensitivity and choice – we

hope you find it helpful… and hopeful.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out four years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

April 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 20th to 30th April 2013 inclusive.

We have now added historical tables to the

report following requests from a number of

readers.


A Matter of Measurement

Mar’13: 41% Apr’13: 46%

Mar’13: 29% Apr’13: 29%

Mar’13: 25% Apr’13: 22%

Mar’13: 5% Apr’13: 3%

Mar’13: 0% Apr’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The steady improvement in our ERI measure since the start of the year has been reversed in

April 2013:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our ERI index in April 2013 stood at 20.3 – losing most of the gains since December 2012:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, April 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Apr-09 77 14 8 1 0 8.3

Apr-10 38 34 25 2 1 23.8

Apr-11 51 27 19 2 1 18.2

Apr-12 49 27 21 3 0 19.4

Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0

Apr-13 46 29 22 3 0 20.3


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Apr-09 34 48 57 59

Apr-10 43 47 52 53

Apr-11 24 39 47 48

Apr-12 31 42 51 50

Mar-13 30 40 44 47

Apr-13 25 35 40 44


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Apr-09 15 n/a n/a n/a

Apr-10 21 28 59 31

Apr-11 14 27 58 24

Apr-12 20 30 59 28

Mar-13 19 27 53 25

Apr-13 15 23 57 21


NEW: Price Sensitive I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”


April 2013 TOTAL Male Female Under

25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

AB

C1

C2

DE

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 30% 23% 37% 36% 31% 37% 28% 23% 28% 23% 37%

Slightly Agree 27% 25% 28% 32% 20% 24% 36% 25% 26% 31% 22%

Neither/Nor 17% 22% 13% 15% 19% 15% 14% 21% 22% 19% 15%

Slightly Disagree 16% 19% 13% 9% 14% 16% 15% 22% 16% 16% 16%

Strongly Disagree 5% 4% 5% 1% 7% 4% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4%


NEW: Price Sensitive II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (x supermarket/TV/electricity/mobile):

“I always buy the lowest price products or services”


April 2013 TOTAL Tesco Dunne

Stores Sky UPC

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity O2 Vodafone Meteor

Weighted Sample 1000 342 153 447 225 496 205 267 226 367 199

Strongly Agree 30% 27% 23% 32% 30% 32% 30% 28% 31% 30% 29%

Slightly Agree 27% 24% 32% 26% 25% 26% 27% 26% 26% 28% 23%

Neither/Nor 17% 21% 21% 18% 20% 18% 13% 19% 20% 18% 15%




NEW: Switchers I


“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

AB

C1

C2

DE

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 42% 38% 45% 40% 39% 46% 49% 37% 42% 38% 45%

Slightly Agree 29% 28% 30% 33% 27% 29% 26% 30% 28% 34% 24%

Neither/Nor 12% 14% 10% 16% 13% 9% 9% 11% 13% 13% 11%




NEW: Switchers II


“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”



Stores Sky UPC

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord


Weighted Sample 1000 342 153 447 225 496 205 267 226 367 199

Strongly Agree 42% 37% 36% 44% 41% 44% 38% 40% 42% 44% 36%

Slightly Agree 29% 31% 35% 28% 31% 27% 33% 31% 30% 27% 29%

Neither/Nor 12% 15% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 12% 12% 13% 12%




NEW: Better Choice I


“I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services”



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

AB

C1

C2

DE

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 19% 18% 21% 22% 15% 15% 24% 22% 20% 19% 20%

Slightly Agree 33% 33% 33% 32% 35% 33% 28% 35% 32% 35% 31%

Neither/Nor 24% 23% 25% 25% 24% 25% 27% 19% 27% 24% 23%




NEW: Better Choice II


“I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services”



Stores Sky UPC

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord


Weighted Sample 1000 342 153 447 225 496 205 267 226 367 199

Strongly Agree 19% 16% 17% 20% 20% 21% 19% 16% 20% 19% 17%

Slightly Agree 33% 34% 35% 37% 31% 33% 36% 31% 33% 31% 34%

Neither/Nor 24% 28% 25% 18% 28% 22% 23% 26% 20% 25% 26%




NEW: Buy Irish I


“I always buy Irish when I can”



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

AB

C1

C2

DE

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 24% 24% 25% 21% 21% 22% 22% 32% 25% 26% 23%

Slightly Agree 28% 26% 29% 29% 30% 27% 29% 26% 27% 31% 25%

Neither/Nor 21% 21% 20% 22% 21% 23% 20% 18% 23% 19% 22%




NEW: Buy Irish II


“I always buy Irish when I can”



Stores Sky UPC

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord


Weighted Sample 1000 342 153 447 225 496 205 267 226 367 199

Strongly Agree 24% 22% 28% 24% 25% 23% 24% 27% 26% 23% 21%

Slightly Agree 28% 31% 25% 31% 29% 28% 28% 27% 23% 29% 35%

Neither/Nor 21% 24% 16% 18% 23% 21% 19% 20% 21% 20% 18%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

Ju

lyA

ug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan-1

3F

eb

Mar

Ap

r

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

Ma

y

Jun

Ju

l

Aug

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotions Summary Table

% Enjoyment Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Apr-09 62 56 40 32 27 15 18 13

Apr-10 55 54 44 37 31 17 24 16

Apr-11 55 52 44 37 27 18 19 13

Apr-12 54 55 45 40 30 18 26 15

Mar-13 54 52 45 41 31 22 24 20

Apr-13 52 49 47 45 30 19 25 18


% saying Yes:


Changing Moods I



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

AB

C1

C2

DE

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 52% 54% 50% 53% 46% 39% 55% 63% 51% 56% 48%

Happiness 49% 48% 51% 59% 53% 39% 46% 50% 46% 54% 45%

Stress 47% 43% 50% 50% 55% 54% 51% 30% 53% 45% 48%

Worry 45% 40% 50% 46% 49% 46% 50% 37% 44% 43% 47%

Anxiety 30% 29% 32% 31% 30% 28% 39% 26% 29% 32% 29%

Boredom 30% 31% 29% 51% 35% 26% 23% 18% 29% 27% 32%

Physical Pain 25% 22% 27% 20% 22% 25% 28% 27% 25% 22% 27%

Sadness 19% 16% 21% 21% 20% 18% 18% 16% 17% 17% 20%

Anger 18% 19% 17% 20% 24% 20% 13% 11% 17% 17% 18%

Fear 13% 12% 13% 9% 15% 20% 14% 7% 14% 12% 14%


% saying Yes: April 2013


Changing Moods II



Stores Sky UPC

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord


Weighted Sample 1000 342 153 447 225 496 205 267 226 367 199

Enjoyment 52% 51% 57% 51% 56% 54% 50% 49% 54% 57% 49%

Happiness 49% 52% 54% 49% 51% 50% 51% 47% 52% 51% 46%

Stress 47% 44% 48% 49% 47% 45% 52% 44% 40% 46% 48%

Worry 45% 45% 42% 47% 46% 46% 49% 41% 43% 45% 48%

Anxiety 30% 30% 30% 34% 29% 30% 35% 28% 29% 32% 26%

Boredom 30% 34% 25% 30% 30% 32% 28% 26% 28% 26% 39%

Physical Pain 25% 27% 21% 27% 23% 24% 24% 25% 29% 23% 25%

Sadness 19% 16% 19% 20% 15% 19% 17% 19% 17% 16% 24%

Anger 18% 18% 19% 17% 17% 18% 14% 21% 20% 17% 16%

Fear 13% 13% 17% 12% 12% 13% 17% 10% 13% 13% 12%


% saying Yes: April 2013 (x main bank/supermarket/electricity)


ERI Resources

We have created a dedicated resource

on the Amárach website for those

interested in exploring our Economic

Recovery Index further.

It includes links to previous issues as

well as to a spreadsheet containing

monthly values for all the component

parts of the ERI – and more besides –

going right back to April 2009.

There is also a link to a special data

visualisation facility we have created in

partnership with Delphi Analytics.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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