amárach economic recovery index february 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing February 2013

© Amárach Research


Promissory Lift

The positive momentum we saw last

month has continued, with some

caveats, into February.

Some of the headlines in relation to

things like the deal on the Promissory

Note have certainly helped, and our

overall ERI index is up from 16.9 in

February 2012 to 21.8 in February 2013.

But ‘eaten bread is soon forgotten’ and,

despite the more positive economic

outlook, consumers are becoming more

reluctant to spend or borrow rather than

more willing.

Breakthrough news on the domestic

front may be necessary to turn

improving macro-fortunes into improving

micro-behaviour.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

February 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 16th to 22nd February 2013 inclusive.

We have now added a short, tabular

appendix to the report following requests

from a number of readers.


A Matter of Measurement

Jan’13: 45% Feb’13: 42%

Jan’13: 30% Feb’13: 32%

Jan’13: 21% Feb’13: 22%

Jan’13: 3% Feb’13: 4%

Jan’13: 0% Fe2’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

Our ERI Index has continued to pick up into February, with a declining minority feeling the

economic situation in Ireland is getting worse:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The weakening we saw in the second half of 2012 has reversed going into 2013:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, February 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


34%41%44%42%43%46%48%

41%43%52%

41% 42%43%42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%

26%30%31%25%25%27%27%24%26%27%

32%27%

Apr

'09

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57%59%65%

58%60%62%55%

51%51%

61%

56% 54%52% 53%54%

55%

50%

46% 44%33%41%

48%44%

48%47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%50%51%

47%43%45%47%46%48%

44%39%

47%43%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

eJu

lyA

ug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly


Recovery Outlook 2

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:


48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45%45%50%

47%43%

47%44%

45%

47%46%

41% 41%32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38%

34%33%37%

41%40%42%38%36%38%39%

35%38%34%32%

40%36%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59%62%61% 60%61%60%56%

52%56%55%

53% 55%53%51%

50%

55%54%

53% 52%45%45%

49%45%47%48%50%

44%49%46%49%

45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%43%46%

42%44%43%43%47%42%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Right now it seems the recession is affecting other people more than me: % agree strongly/slightly


Getting Through

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement

(by gender, household income & presence and age of children):

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”


February 2013 TOTAL Male Female Under

25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

AB

C1

C2

DE

Has

Child

ren

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 623

Strongly Agree 11% 10% 11% 16% 10% 7% 9% 11% 14% 8% 9%

Slightly Agree 33% 35% 30% 35% 34% 26% 27% 38% 37% 29% 32%

Neither/Nor 15% 16% 14% 14% 13% 19% 16% 13% 14% 15% 15%

Slightly Disagree 21% 18% 23% 18% 21% 25% 20% 20% 17% 24% 23%

Strongly Disagree 20% 20% 19% 15% 18% 22% 27% 19% 17% 23% 20%


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: February 2011, 2012, 2013 & January 2013

14% 17% 22% 16%

Feb'11 Feb'12 Jan'13 Feb'13

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago

58% 61% 64% 58%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

27% 29% 27% 26%


I am saving a lot more than before because of the

recession

24% 26% 27% 24%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 61% 57% 57% 54%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Purses & Wallets

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am saving a lot more because of the recession”



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

AB

C1

C2

DE

Has

Child

ren

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 623

Strongly Agree 9% 9% 10% 23% 9% 4% 6% 7% 10% 9% 8%

Slightly Agree 17% 17% 17% 23% 23% 14% 8% 14% 21% 13% 15%

Neither/Nor 17% 18% 16% 14% 16% 17% 15% 19% 18% 16% 17%

Slightly Disagree 19% 20% 18% 18% 18% 19% 24% 18% 21% 17% 18%

Strongly Disagree 36% 35% 37% 20% 29% 44% 46% 41% 28% 44% 41%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

De

cJan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan-1

3

Feb

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

AB

C1

C2

DE

Has

Child

ren

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 623

Enjoyment 54% 54% 54% 64% 50% 48% 50% 57% 61% 48% 54%

Happiness 51% 48% 54% 67% 54% 45% 43% 47% 55% 47% 48%

Stress 46% 44% 47% 49% 51% 55% 45% 33% 45% 46% 45%

Worry 39% 36% 43% 39% 44% 43% 39% 34% 39% 40% 39%

Anxiety 29% 29% 30% 31% 29% 30% 32% 28% 30% 29% 30%

Boredom 27% 30% 24% 41% 29% 23% 24% 21% 23% 30% 23%

Physical Pain 25% 26% 25% 18% 23% 26% 27% 31% 25% 26% 28%

Sadness 21% 19% 22% 23% 23% 20% 20% 17% 19% 22% 18%

Anger 14% 15% 13% 14% 19% 17% 14% 9% 12% 16% 15%

Fear 12% 11% 13% 14% 14% 15% 9% 9% 11% 13% 10%


% saying Yes: February 2013


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7

Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0

Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9

Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9

Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

The news from

other countries

makes me

more confident

the recession

will end soon

I am less

worried

about

losing my

job than I

was before

Feb-10 42 47 56 53 35 21

Feb-11 24 37 44 45 20 17

Feb-12 26 41 44 49 16 19

Jan-13 32 40 47 47 23 20

Feb-13 27 36 43 42 18 18


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

I think that

now is a good

time to buy a

house for

those who

want to

I am more

relaxed

about

spending

money

than I was

a few

months

ago

Feb-10 18 26 62 29 62 18

Feb-11 14 27 61 24 58 14

Feb-12 17 29 57 26 61 17

Jan-13 22 27 57 27 64 22

Feb-13 16 26 54 24 58 16


ERI Summary Tables IV

% Enjoy

-ment

Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Feb-10

56

56

44

35

27

19

20

15

Feb-11

56

54

49

42

30

19

23

17

Feb-12

55

51

41

38

29

18

22

15

Jan-13

49

51

43

43

32

23

26

19

Feb-13

54

51

46

39

29

21

25

14


% saying Yes:


ERI Resources

We have created a dedicated resource

on the Amárach website for those

interested in exploring our Economic

Recovery Index further.

It includes links to previous issues as

well as to a spreadsheet containing

monthly values for all the component

parts of the ERI – and more besides –

going right back to April 2009.

There is also a link to a special data

visualisation facility we have created in

partnership with Delphi Analytics.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index february 2013

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