amárach economic recovery index december 2011

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

December 2011

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out two years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our „emotional progress‟ towards

recovery alongside our „economic progress‟.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

„happiness‟ and „enjoyment‟ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

December 2011.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 9th-15th December 2011 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Nov‘11 57% Dec‘11 59%

Nov’11 24% Dec’11 24%

Nov’11 17% Dec’11 15%

Nov’11 2% Dec’11 2%

Nov’11 0% Nov’11 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ (listed below)

December 2011 saw a continuing deterioration in perceptions about the economy:


The Stages of Recovery

December 2011 Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

The economic situation in

Ireland is bad & getting

worse

58% 55% 60% 39% 49% 67% 71%

The economic situation is

bad but has stabilized 23% 24% 23% 36% 26% 19% 17%


bad but showing a few

signs of improvement

15% 16% 13% 17% 16% 12% 11%


getting better and showing

clear signs of improvement

2% 4% 1% 3% 5% 1% 0%


good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:

Source: Amárach Research, December 2011


Using the answers to the question on „stages of recovery‟ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

In December 2011, the Recovery Indicator fell back to its level at the start of the year:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

The Economic Recovery Index



34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41% 43%

52%

41% 42% 43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26% 18%

23% 26% 24% 25% 24%28%

23% 26% 24% 26% 26% 23%22%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

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Oct

No

v

De

c

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55% 54%52% 53%

54% 55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48% 47%53%

47% 48% 48% 47% 49%42%39%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

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Au

g

Se

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Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

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Jan

Fe

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r '1

1

May

Ju

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Oct

No

v

De

c

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:



Recovery On Hold


Strongly Agree 7% 9% 5% 12% 13% 5% 3%

Slightly Agree 15% 14% 16% 29% 18% 11% 10%

Neither/Nor 8% 9% 6% 9% 8% 10% 6%

Slightly Disagree 24% 21% 26% 27% 24% 25% 21%

Strongly Disagree 43% 44% 42% 15% 31% 48% 60%


% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”


48% 48%51% 47%48% 48%46%

45% 45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41% 41%

32% 34%39% 37% 36% 39% 40%

34%39%

34% 38% 38% 34%33%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

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Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

De

c

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 2

59%

62% 61% 60% 61% 60%56%

52%

56% 55%53% 55%

53% 51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45% 45% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50%44%

49% 46% 49% 45% 45%43%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

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Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

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Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

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Ju

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

De

c

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly




43% 43% 42%46%

35%40% 39%

30%35% 36%

33%28% 27%

14%18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13%12%

Oct '0

9

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

Se

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Oct

No

v

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c

Jan

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1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

De

c

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 3

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21% 21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18%15%

Oct '0

9

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

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Ju

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Au

g

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Oct

No

v

De

c

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly


Source: Amárach Research, November 2011


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: December 2009, 2010, 2011 & November 2011

17%11% 16% 14%

Dec'09Dec'10 Nov'11 Dec'11

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

60% 55% 59% 54%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

26% 23% 26% 27%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

29%21% 23% 22%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 57% 58% 55% 56%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Reluctant Shoppers


Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 6% 7% 3% 2%

Slightly Agree 10% 10% 9% 13% 14% 4% 6%

Neither/Nor 14% 14% 13% 18% 15% 12% 11%

Slightly Disagree 26% 25% 26% 27% 24% 29% 26%

Strongly Disagree 46% 44% 48% 35% 38% 51% 56%


% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry





% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Se

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Oct

No

v

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Ja

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Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

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0

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Se

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Oct

No

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Ja

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b

Ma

r

Ap

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1

Ma

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June

July

Aug

Se

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Oct

No

v

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Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger





% saying Yes: December 2011

All Adults Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Enjoyment 52% 52% 51% 51% 47% 52% 44% 60%

Happiness 48% 46% 51% 57% 45% 51% 42% 48%

Stress 46% 45% 48% 56% 50% 55% 45% 31%

Worry 45% 42% 49% 43% 53% 52% 46% 35%

Anxiety 34% 32% 37% 46% 30% 38% 32% 28%

Boredom 22% 22% 23% 39% 26% 19% 16% 14%

Physical

Pain 21% 20% 23% 23% 17% 21% 23% 23%

Sadness 20% 17% 23% 23% 19% 22% 20% 17%

Anger 19% 21% 18% 23% 25% 22% 15% 13%

Fear 14% 15% 14% 12% 18% 19% 15% 10%



Dealing With Uncertainty

Our final Economic Recovery Index for 2011

sees a continuation of the negative shift noted in

recent months.

Although Irish consumers continue to be

emotionally resilient, they are also increasingly

financially cautious.

Looking ahead to Q1 2012, it is clear that only

certain sub-segments of the population are

„insulated‟ from the uncertainties we all face.

Businesses looking for domestic growth

opportunities will need to refocus on those

consumer groups that are ready, willing and able

to buy – despite the economy.

We will bring you more insights into domestic

opportunities for growth in 2012...

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international clients.

Our team of 30 research & support staff have

worked with most of Ireland‟s top 200

companies. Every year we survey over

100,000 people at home and abroad, as well

as running hundreds of focus groups.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique

field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

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