amárach economic recovery index august 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing August 2013 (including analysis by main bank; electricity supplier; mobile network)

© Amárach Research


Autumn Approaches

Our Economic Recovery Index has continued

to remain strong in August – sustaining three

months in a row of above trend levels.

However, there is a marked contrast between

what people feel about the economy – and

what they are feeling per se.

More negative emotions are rising, while

positive emotions are falling – and it isn’t all

early onset S.A.D. as our better than average

summer comes to an end.

Marketers need to watch out for volatile mood

swings – especially as Budget 2014 arrives

early this year in October.

We’ll keep you updated as the rest of 2013

unfolds…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out four years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

August 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 17th to 24th August 2013 inclusive.

We have now added historical tables to the

report following requests from a number of

readers.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our ERI index in August 2013 stood at 23.7 – sustaining the higher trend since June:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, August 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g


A Matter of Measurement

July ’13: 41% Aug ’13: 38%

July ’13: 30% Aug ’13: 33%

July ’13: 25% Aug ’13: 26%

July ’13: 4% Aug ’13: 3%

July ’13: 0% Aug ’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking things are getting worse is back to the levels seen three years ago:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Aug-09 53 26 20 1 0 17.0

Aug-10 36 36 24 4 0 24.0

Aug-11 52 29 18 1 0 17.3

Aug-12 42 31 25 2 0 21.7

Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3

Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Aug-09 43 48 60 61

Aug-10 39 46 50 54

Aug-11 24 34 48 46

Aug-12 27 39 47 46

Jul-13 27 39 47 45

Aug-13 32 38 44 43


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Aug-09 16

Aug-10 19 26 62 31

Aug-11 14 25 57 23

Aug-12 17 28 54 25

Jul-13 19 25 56 23

Aug-13 18 25 55 25


Eternal Optimists I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”


August 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 186 156 266 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 12% 13% 11% 15% 13% 7% 9% 14% 13% 14% 10%

Slightly Agree 32% 30% 34% 32% 33% 26% 33% 35% 38% 34% 30%

Neither/Nor 16% 18% 15% 21% 16% 18% 15% 13% 19% 15% 17%

Slightly Disagree 23% 22% 23% 20% 22% 25% 22% 23% 18% 21% 24%

Strongly Disagree 15% 15% 15% 9% 13% 21% 19% 15% 11% 14% 16%


Eternal Optimists II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/electricity/mobile):

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”


August 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI PTSB Ulster

Bank

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Weighted Sample 1000 348 287 152 141 527 185 244 224 369 196

Strongly Agree 12% 14% 10% 12% 13% 11% 10% 14% 14% 12% 12%

Slightly Agree 32% 30% 36% 33% 28% 33% 30% 31% 34% 30% 30%

Neither/Nor 16% 17% 16% 11% 16% 15% 18% 16% 13% 17% 15%




NEW: Switching I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 186 156 266 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 36% 35% 37% 36% 39% 41% 38% 29% 37% 33% 39%

Slightly Agree 33% 33% 34% 30% 35% 32% 31% 37% 33% 39% 28%

Neither/Nor 15% 17% 12% 18% 14% 13% 13% 15% 13% 15% 15%




NEW: Switching II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank/electricity/mobile):

“I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers”



Bank

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Weighted Sample 1000 348 287 152 141 527 185 244 224 369 196

Strongly Agree 36% 36% 35% 39% 36% 31% 37% 45% 33% 36% 38%

Slightly Agree 33% 33% 33% 40% 30% 37% 30% 30% 39% 30% 33%

Neither/Nor 15% 14% 15% 7% 20% 16% 15% 9% 15% 16% 15%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Ju

n

Au

g

Oct

De

c

Feb

Ap

r '1

0

Ju

ne

Aug

Oct

De

c

Feb

Ap

r '1

1

Ju

ne

Au

g

Oct

De

c

Feb

Ap

r'1

2

Ju

ne

Au

g

Oct

De

c

Feb

Ap

r

June

Au

g

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

Ju

lyA

ug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotions Summary Table

% Enjoyment Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Aug-09 60 54 50 38 33 16 22 18

Aug-10 56 56 42 37 25 17 23 17

Aug-11 53 53 40 35 28 17 23 17

Aug-12 53 51 41 38 31 22 22 18

Jul-13 58 56 42 34 31 18 25 16

Aug-13 51 49 44 42 33 22 25 19


% saying Yes:


Changing Moods I



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 186 156 266 279 477 523

Enjoyment 51% 49% 53% 48% 48% 45% 54% 58% 51% 56% 47%

Happiness 49% 46% 53% 52% 56% 47% 38% 50% 49% 52% 47%

Stress 44% 43% 46% 48% 45% 53% 46% 34% 42% 41% 47%

Worry 42% 37% 46% 45% 44% 45% 42% 35% 42% 39% 44%

Anxiety 33% 32% 33% 33% 33% 38% 32% 29% 34% 34% 32%

Boredom 33% 34% 31% 54% 41% 30% 24% 19% 34% 30% 36%

Physical Pain 25% 24% 25% 24% 20% 28% 24% 27% 25% 22% 28%

Sadness 22% 19% 26% 28% 26% 23% 18% 18% 24% 20% 24%

Anger 19% 20% 18% 24% 26% 25% 13% 9% 20% 17% 21%

Fear 12% 12% 11% 13% 17% 13% 7% 8% 14% 11% 12%


% saying Yes: August 2013


Changing Moods II



Bank

EBS

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity O2

Voda

fone Meteor

Weighted Sample 1000 348 287 152 141 527 185 244 224 369 196

Enjoyment 51% 48% 54% 51% 57% 54% 47% 49% 57% 51% 42%

Happiness 49% 50% 49% 47% 53% 50% 51% 48% 52% 50% 40%

Stress 44% 47% 40% 47% 44% 45% 46% 41% 39% 44% 49%

Worry 42% 41% 41% 41% 45% 41% 43% 41% 45% 41% 45%

Anxiety 33% 34% 34% 30% 30% 32% 36% 30% 33% 34% 35%

Boredom 33% 34% 29% 31% 36% 32% 28% 35% 27% 32% 39%

Physical Pain 25% 26% 23% 24% 28% 25% 26% 23% 25% 27% 20%

Sadness 22% 23% 24% 19% 21% 20% 27% 23% 21% 22% 22%

Anger 19% 20% 16% 14% 26% 18% 19% 18% 19% 18% 20%

Fear 12% 13% 10% 11% 12% 12% 15% 8% 13% 11% 10%


% saying Yes: August 2013 (by main bank/electricity provider/mobile service)

Drivers & Drinking

we provide the answers

to our clients’ important questions

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index august 2013

Technology

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economic recovery

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selected statements

day yesterday