amárach economic recovery index march 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing March 2013 (including analysis by main bank; supermarket; electricity provider)

© Amárach Research


Trickle Down Optimism

Call it the St Patrick’s Day lift (or something),

but it looks like the mood was good (or at least

better) in March.

Maybe it’s a case of ‘trickle down emonomics’:

the good news on the macro-front we talked

about in February’s report may finally be

having an impact on the micro-front.

One of the big stories this month is the extent

to which Dublin is pulling away from the rest of

the country when it comes to economic

sentiment and consumer spending intentions.

The recovery is taking root in Dublin – expect

the first green shoots to pop up in the capital

some time before they are evident elsewhere

in the country.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

March 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 11th to 18th March 2013 inclusive.

We have now added historical tables to the

report following requests from a number of

readers.


A Matter of Measurement

Feb’13: 42% Mar’13: 41%

Feb’13: 32% Mar’13: 29%

Feb’13: 22% Mar’13: 25%

Feb’13: 4% Mar’13: 5%

Feb’13: 0% Mar’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

Our ERI Index has improved steadily since the start of the year, with a declining minority feeling

the economic situation in Ireland is getting worse:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our ERI index in March 2013 stood at 24.0 – its highest since August 2010:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, March 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5

Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2

Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3

Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8

Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

The news from

other countries

makes me

more confident

the recession

will end soon

I am less

worried

about

losing my

job than I

was before

Mar-10 42 43 54 55 40 18

Mar-11 25 36 48 47 21 17

Mar-12 30 40 50 48 23 22

Feb-13 27 36 43 42 18 18

Mar-13 30 40 44 47 21 20


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

I think that

now is a good

time to buy a

house for

those who

want to

Mar-10 18 25 61 30 64

Mar-11 13 23 58 23 61

Mar-12 18 29 55 24 62

Feb-13 16 26 54 24 58

Mar-13 19 27 53 25 62


Staying Power I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


March 2013 TOTAL Under

25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

Rest of

Lens-

ter

Muns-

ter

Conn-

aught/

Ulster

AB

C1

Weighted Sample 1018 172 227 190 159 270 284 271 282 181 486

Strongly Agree 10% 11% 11% 8% 6% 14% 13% 9% 9% 10% 11%

Slightly Agree 29% 30% 28% 21% 29% 35% 30% 30% 30% 25% 34%

Neither/Nor 11% 14% 10% 12% 9% 11% 12% 10% 13% 11% 12%

Slightly Disagree 21% 23% 21% 24% 19% 18% 22% 21% 20% 20% 22%

Strongly Disagree 26% 19% 26% 32% 36% 20% 20% 27% 26% 32% 18%


Staying Power II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (x main bank/supermarket/electricity):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


March 2013 TOTAL AIB BoI PTSB Ulster

Bank Tesco Dunnes Aldi

Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1018 353 279 149 143 363 152 171 512 205 279

Strongly Agree 10% 11% 11% 7% 13% 9% 11% 6% 9% 14% 10%

Slightly Agree 29% 34% 30% 27% 25% 29% 38% 24% 30% 31% 26%

Neither/Nor 11% 12% 11% 11% 8% 11% 10% 10% 11% 14% 11%




Small Spenders I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

Rest of

Lens-

ter

Muns-

ter

Conn-

aught/

Ulster

AB

C1

Weighted Sample 1018 172 227 190 159 270 284 271 282 181 486

Strongly Agree 5% 5% 8% 1% 4% 5% 6% 6% 3% 3% 5%

Slightly Agree 15% 17% 17% 17% 9% 13% 16% 15% 14% 15% 15%

Neither/Nor 14% 19% 15% 11% 6% 16% 14% 14% 15% 13% 17%




Small Spenders II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (x main bank/supermarket/electricity):

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”




Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1018 353 279 149 143 363 152 171 512 205 279

Strongly Agree 5% 5% 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 4% 4% 5%

Slightly Agree 17% 13% 11% 16% 14% 16% 13% 11% 23% 16% 17%

Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 14% 15% 13% 11% 15% 13% 13% 14%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

De

cJan

Feb

Mar

Apr'12

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Jan-1

3F

eb

Mar

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

n'1

3F

eb

Ma

r

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


ERI Summary Tables IV

% Enjoy

-ment

Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Mar-10

56

55

48

40

32

18

24

17

Mar-11

53

50

43

39

29

16

20

16

Mar-12

57

55

41

34

28

19

21

16

Feb-13

54

51

46

39

29

21

25

14

Mar-13

54

52

45

41

31

22

24

20


% saying Yes:


Changing Moods I



25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin

Rest of

Lens-

ter

Muns-

ter

Conn-

aught/

Ulster

AB

C1

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 623

Enjoyment 54% 60% 50% 51% 52% 58% 58% 54% 50% 55% 59%

Happiness 52% 61% 52% 57% 43% 51% 55% 52% 51% 51% 57%

Stress 45% 56% 49% 56% 41% 28% 43% 46% 45% 47% 43%

Worry 41% 45% 45% 53% 41% 26% 40% 48% 36% 39% 38%

Anxiety 31% 36% 32% 37% 28% 23% 31% 31% 29% 32% 30%

Boredom 29% 44% 35% 30% 26% 15% 26% 29% 31% 28% 26%

Physical Pain 24% 21% 21% 27% 25% 27% 23% 24% 25% 27% 19%

Sadness 22% 27% 27% 23% 21% 14% 23% 23% 18% 23% 18%

Anger 20% 22% 25% 27% 18% 10% 20% 19% 18% 22% 16%

Fear 12% 12% 15% 19% 10% 5% 11% 12% 12% 14% 8%


% saying Yes: March 2013


Changing Moods II




Electric

Ireland

Bord

Gais Airtricity

Weighted Sample 1008 353 279 149 143 363 152 171 512 205 279

Enjoyment 54% 54% 56% 51% 57% 58% 53% 53% 53% 62% 53%

Happiness 52% 55% 51% 48% 49% 55% 51% 49% 52% 53% 52%

Stress 45% 44% 44% 41% 47% 45% 42% 54% 41% 47% 48%

Worry 41% 38% 44% 40% 41% 45% 37% 51% 42% 41% 38%

Anxiety 31% 30% 30% 33% 29% 30% 27% 41% 29% 35% 30%

Boredom 29% 28% 31% 27% 32% 30% 27% 32% 30% 28% 25%

Physical Pain 24% 21% 23% 25% 30% 24% 23% 23% 23% 28% 25%

Sadness 22% 20% 24% 18% 21% 22% 20% 26% 21% 22% 21%

Anger 20% 18% 21% 21% 20% 21% 18% 24% 19% 22% 20%

Fear 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 13% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13%


% saying Yes: March 2013 (x main bank/supermarket/electricity)


ERI Resources

We have created a dedicated resource

on the Amárach website for those

interested in exploring our Economic

Recovery Index further.

It includes links to previous issues as

well as to a spreadsheet containing

monthly values for all the component

parts of the ERI – and more besides –

going right back to April 2009.

There is also a link to a special data

visualisation facility we have created in

partnership with Delphi Analytics.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index march 2013

Documents

spending money

eri index

amrach research

financially

selected statements

day yesterday

main banksupermarketelectricity

irish adults