amárach economic recovery index may 2016

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

May 2016


Are We There Yet?

It’s over seven years since we started

tracking the Economic Recovery Index and

the good news is that we appear to be

seeing some recovery in our index!

Last month we published a special 7th

anniversary edition of the ERI report – you

should check it out for a wider analysis than

our regular commentary.

The decline in the ERI that we saw since the

start of the year has been partly reversed in

May 2016, suggesting that the removal of

political uncertainty, better economic

headlines and even the weather (!) has lifted

the mood of the nation as we approach the

half-way mark in 2016.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to May 2016.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 14th to 20th May 2016 inclusive.

See how it was nearly seven years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The reversal we say at the start of the year has been partly reversed:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, May 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'16

Mar

May

The ERI is back on an upward trend


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0

May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8

May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1

May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2

May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3

May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4

May-15 14 34 34 17 1 39.4

Apr-16 16 30 32 20 2 41.8

May-16 12 29 33 24 2 43.9

The ERI is back to the second highest level we have recorded

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to

emphasise the positive and didn’t think the

recession would last so long!

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and some very lows) in

terms of the mood of the nation and the

impact on consumer spending, borrowing and

saving intentions.

We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the

part of the Irish people when it comes to

‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-

economic uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

May-09 41 48 59 62

May-10 40 44 53 51

May-11 28 40 53 50

May-12 25 38 47 45

May-13 25 39 45 46

May-14 38 39 49 45

May-15 39 43 52 41

Apr-16 32 42 47 42

May-16 43 47 55 50

Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ remains flat


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as

quickly as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

May-09 15

May-10 19 26 61 28

May-11 17 26 61 26

May-12 18 27 56 27

May-13 18 24 56 24

May-14 23 23 59 25

May-15 27 24 51 24

Apr-16 27 23 51 24

May-16 32 30 51 29

Spending sentiment has weakened in recent months


R²=0.90181

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

%Agree:M

oreRelaxedAboutSpendingMoney

EconomicRecoveryIndex

EconomicSentimentDrivesConsumerSpendingSentiment

Consumer Sentiment & ERI: April 2009-May 2016

The ERI and consumer spending sentiment are highly correlated

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

We have seen some interesting trends as a

result, including a widening gap between

positive and negative emotions – though both

are trending downwards over time.

The following charts show the trends to May

2016.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2016


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2016


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Amárach Outlook


2016 Beginning

As we approach the half-way mark our

Economic Recovery Index has taken an

encouraging turn for the positive.

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2016 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI (including 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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amárach economic recovery index may 2016

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