amárach economic recovery index september 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing September 2013 (including analysis by main supermarket; newspaper; TV service)

© Amárach Research


Finally?

Things are improving – our Economic

Recovery Index is back to levels last seen four

years ago.

There appears to be gradual alignment

between what people feel about the economy

and about their personal circumstances – with

an emphasis on gradual.

Nevertheless, it bodes well (or better anyway)

for the rest of 2013 in general, and for

consumer spending in particular.

Watch out for ‘buying Irish’ as one winner from

recovery – more later.

We still have Budget 2014 to navigate next

month, but assuming no setbacks then

consumer words will soon become consumer

actions…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out four years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

September 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 10th to 22nd September 2013 inclusive.

We have now added historical tables to the

report following requests from a number of

readers.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index rose further to 25.7 in September 2013, the highest level in over four years:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, September 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t


A Matter of Measurement

Aug ’13: 38% Sept ’13: 35%

Aug ’13: 33% Sept ’13: 31%

Aug ’13: 26% Sept ’13: 30%

Aug ’13: 3% Sept ’13: 4%

Aug ’13: 0% Sept ’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking things are getting worse is back to the levels seen three years ago:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Sep-09 50 28 21 1 0 18.4

Sep-10 45 32 21 2 0 19.2

Sep-11 48 30 21 1 0 19.0

Sep-12 46 28 23 2 1 20.8

Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7

Sep-13 35 31 30 4 0 25.7


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Sep-09 46 48 62 60

Sep-10 31 41 46 53

Sep-11 26 38 47 49

Sep-12 24 35 46 42

Aug-13 32 38 44 43

Sep-13 28 38 45 46


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial

priority is to

pay off my

debts as

quickly as

possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Sep-09 18

Sep-10 18 24 56 27

Sep-11 14 23 59 23

Sep-12 13 26 56 24

Aug-13 18 25 55 25

Sep-13 19 26 57 25


Feeling Sheltered I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than me”


September 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 524

Strongly Agree 19% 19% 19% 22% 16% 13% 11% 27% 23% 21% 16%

Slightly Agree 27% 27% 28% 33% 26% 25% 23% 29% 26% 31% 24%

Neither/Nor 16% 18% 15% 14% 20% 16% 18% 14% 17% 16% 17%

Slightly Disagree 20% 21% 19% 19% 21% 25% 21% 16% 21% 20% 21%

Strongly Disagree 16% 14% 17% 10% 13% 19% 27% 14% 10% 12% 20%


Feeling Sheltered II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by grocery/newspapers/TV service):

“Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than me”


September

2013 TOTAL Tesco

Super

Valu Aldi Lidl

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Irish

Exam

iner

Sky UPC

Weighted Sample 1001 339 96 211 133 193 227 71 57 438 238

Strongly Agree 19% 19% 15% 17% 17% 24% 21% 16% 20% 16% 26%

Slightly Agree 27% 29% 34% 19% 26% 32% 23% 28% 36% 29% 25%

Neither/Nor 16% 13% 19% 20% 18% 14% 17% 19% 17% 15% 16%




Buy Irish I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I always buy Irish when I can”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 524

Strongly Agree 23% 21% 25% 15% 16% 16% 25% 38% 21% 23% 23%

Slightly Agree 31% 33% 30% 30% 34% 34% 31% 28% 32% 33% 30%

Neither/Nor 23% 23% 23% 27% 29% 25% 18% 16% 24% 25% 21%




Buy Irish II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by grocery/newspapers/TV service):

“I always buy Irish when I can”


September

2013 TOTAL Tesco

Super

Valu Aldi Lidl

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily Mail

Irish

Exam

iner

Sky UPC

Weighted Sample 1001 339 96 211 133 193 227 71 57 438 238

Strongly Agree 18% 38% 21% 19% 30% 29% 29% 33% 22% 25% 18%

Slightly Agree 33% 28% 34% 27% 36% 29% 35% 31% 34% 32% 33%

Neither/Nor 26% 17% 20% 27% 21% 19% 20% 20% 21% 24% 26%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

Ma

yJun

Jul

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Aug

Se

pt

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to September 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'11

Feb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJun

eJuly

Au

gS

ep

t

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotions Summary Table


% saying Yes:

% Enjoyment Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Sep-09 60 53 48 39 31 18 22 19

Sep-10 56 53 46 42 31 17 24 20

Sep-11 54 51 44 37 28 16 18 16

Sep-12 51 51 42 41 29 17 22 14

Aug-13 51 49 44 42 33 22 25 19

Sep-13 56 51 44 40 35 20 23 16


Changing Moods I



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 524

Enjoyment 56% 56% 55% 66% 42% 52% 53% 64% 60% 59% 52%

Happiness 51% 46% 55% 65% 46% 49% 45% 49% 50% 53% 49%

Stress 44% 45% 43% 43% 52% 57% 52% 26% 43% 44% 44%

Worry 40% 38% 43% 40% 44% 47% 46% 30% 38% 37% 44%

Anxiety 35% 37% 34% 34% 38% 38% 44% 27% 35% 35% 36%

Boredom 27% 29% 25% 45% 31% 24% 22% 17% 28% 29% 26%

Physical Pain 23% 22% 25% 20% 20% 22% 20% 32% 19% 22% 24%

Sadness 20% 18% 23% 28% 20% 23% 19% 15% 21% 22% 19%

Anger 16% 19% 13% 21% 17% 22% 16% 9% 18% 14% 18%

Fear 13% 12% 13% 14% 13% 19% 14% 6% 9% 13% 12%


% saying Yes: September 2013


Changing Moods II


September

2013 TOTAL Tesco

Super

Valu Aldi Lidl

Irish

Times

Irish

Indo

Irish

Daily

Mail

Irish

Exam

iner

Sky UPC

Weighted Sample 1001 339 96 211 133 193 227 71 57 438 238

Enjoyment 59% 59% 50% 45% 58% 57% 68% 56% 57% 58% 59%

Happiness 52% 51% 49% 46% 53% 45% 57% 63% 53% 50% 52%

Stress 42% 39% 53% 50% 43% 42% 36% 39% 44% 44% 42%

Worry 39% 40% 47% 42% 35% 41% 43% 43% 41% 40% 39%

Anxiety 38% 32% 35% 34% 41% 35% 38% 31% 36% 39% 38%

Boredom 28% 34% 27% 26% 24% 23% 30% 22% 27% 26% 28%

Physical Pain 21% 24% 29% 25% 25% 22% 24% 23% 24% 25% 21%

Sadness 21% 23% 18% 21% 21% 19% 25% 20% 17% 21% 21%

Anger 16% 11% 19% 17% 17% 16% 17% 18% 15% 15% 16%

Fear 12% 13% 17% 11% 14% 10% 20% 23% 13% 8% 12%


% saying Yes: September 2013 (by main supermarket/daily paper/TV service)

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to our clients’ important questions

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About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market

research agency, providing a full range of

research services to our Irish and international

clients. Amárach specialises in turning

information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and cati

surveys (through our call centre); as well as

qualitative research including focus groups, in-

depths and ethnographic studies. We also

delivers a world class field-only service to

universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered

innovative research techniques and reported on

Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the

1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding

current Irish consumer and business trends, and

shares numerous, free reports and presentations

via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our

main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your

business to bounce forward to success and to

explore how we can help you succeed through

world class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index september 2013

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