amárach economic recovery index august 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

August 2014

© Amárach Research


Contagious Optimism

Moods are contagious – for good and for bad

– but right now it is for good as the rising level

of economic optimism and personal

confidence creates its own momentum.

Our Economic Recovery Index is now at its

highest level since we began measuring it over

five years ago (though remember it was very

low to begin with!)

Indeed, for the first time, the majority of Irish

people say the economy is clearly improving;

only minority feel it’s bad or just stable.

All-in-all, as we enter the last third of 2014, the

economy might just enjoy an ‘Indian summer’

of its own…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

August 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 16th-22nd August 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – details

at the end of this report.

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index reached a new record level in August 2014:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, August 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

the ERI is now approaching the 40 barrier…


A Matter of Measurement

July ’14: 18% Aug ’14: 16%

July ’14: 36% Aug ’14: 33%

July ’14: 35% Aug ’14: 38%

July ’14: 10% Aug ’14: 13%

July ’14: 0% Aug ’14: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

For the first time in over 5 years, the majority of Irish people say the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Aug-09 53 26 20 1 0 17.0

Aug-10 36 36 24 4 0 24.0

Aug-11 52 29 18 1 0 17.3

Aug-12 42 31 25 2 0 21.7

Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7

Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7

Aug-14 16 33 38 13 0 37.2

The ERI in August 2014 was more than double that in August 2009


Uneven Recovery

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, class, Dublin)


August 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse

15% 17% 13% 13% 14% 16% 17% 16% 16% 12% 19%


is bad but has stabilized 32% 31% 33% 29% 34% 33% 34% 30% 31% 32% 32%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

36% 35% 38% 35% 33% 38% 36% 39% 36% 38% 35%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

13% 13% 12% 15% 12% 10% 11% 14% 13% 14% 11%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

* * * 0 1% 1% 0 0 1% 1% *

ERI Score 37.2 37.0 37.5 37.4 36.4 37.1 35.5 39.0 37.6 39.9 34.8

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Aug-09 43 48 60 61

Aug-10 39 46 50 54

Aug-11 24 34 48 46

Aug-12 27 39 47 46

Aug-13 32 38 44 43

Jul-14 37 41 48 44

Aug-14 41 47 53 47

a majority of people are optimistic for the first in months


Feeling Comfortable?

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I feel financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 14% 15% 14% 18% 17% 8% 14% 15% 14% 18% 11%

Slightly Agree 32% 31% 33% 32% 31% 34% 26% 36% 33% 37% 27%

Neither/Nor 16% 20% 13% 15% 18% 14% 18% 16% 17% 14% 18%

Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 25% 19% 18% 20% 17% 22%

Strongly Disagree 15% 14% 16% 9% 14% 17% 22% 15% 14% 11% 19%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Aug-09 16

Aug-10 19 26 62 31

Aug-11 14 25 57 23

Aug-12 17 28 54 25

Aug-13 18 25 55 25

Jul-14 23 24 54 23

Aug-14 28 27 56 27

spending propensity reached its highest level yet in August 2014


Purses & Wallets

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am more relaxed spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 3% 8% 6% 7% 8% 6%

Slightly Agree 21% 22% 19% 24% 22% 22% 17% 19% 20% 26% 16%

Neither/Nor 20% 22% 17% 22% 19% 22% 17% 19% 20% 19% 20%

Slightly Disagree 26% 24% 28% 24% 26% 25% 24% 30% 27% 26% 27%

Strongly Disagree 25% 23% 27% 18% 21% 28% 32% 26% 23% 19% 30%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy

the lowest

price products

or services

I am always on

the lookout for

opportunities to

switch to

cheaper

suppliers

I have more

choice than

before when it

comes to

products and

services

I always buy

Irish when I

can

Apr-13 57 71 52 52

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51

Jun-14 55 70 58 52

Jul-14 58 72 58 48

Aug-14 56 71 60 51

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

e

Au

g

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

g

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 60% 61% 58% 66% 55% 58% 61% 60% 58% 63% 56%

Happiness 57% 57% 57% 66% 56% 56% 53% 55% 58% 61% 53%

Stress 37% 34% 40% 41% 40% 46% 38% 25% 33% 35% 39%

Worry 34% 32% 37% 42% 39% 36% 36% 23% 35% 35% 33%

Boredom 27% 25% 29% 48% 32% 27% 19% 14% 28% 24% 30%

Anxiety 27% 26% 28% 33% 29% 30% 28% 19% 26% 28% 27%

Physical Pain 25% 25% 24% 19% 19% 27% 27% 29% 26% 23% 26%

Sadness 19% 17% 21% 30% 22% 18% 21% 10% 20% 18% 20%

Anger 17% 16% 17% 23% 23% 17% 16% 8% 16% 16% 18%

Fear 9% 7% 11% 10% 12% 12% 9% 3% 11% 8% 10%


% saying Yes: August 2014

Amárach Outlook


Dive In

Moods are catching, so if the current emotional

and intentional momentum continues we can

expect to see a gradual increase in the share

of consumers more prepared to open their

purses & wallets.

Only then will the recovery become much

more manifest for the nation as a whole.

We hope this edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has given you some food for

thought about the opportunities that lie ahead

– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you

on how to leverage the new momentum.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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