amárach economic recovery index january 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing January 2014 (including analysis by age group and social class)

© Amárach Research


Picking Up

Last year’s improving performance has continued

into January, and so for the fourth month in a row

our Economic Recovery Index has reached a

record high level – up to 33.3.

In particular, a majority of consumers are

optimistic about the future, the first time since

May 2011.

December’s retail figures – showing a pick up in

the value and volume of sales year-on-year –

certainly reflects the improving consumer outlook.

We have been tracking consumer sentiment

about the economy and their own financial

situation for nearly five years and this is the first

time we have seen such a steady improvement in

outlook.

It looks like the early stages of a recovery…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out nearly five years ago to assess

the psychological impact of the recession and

to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

January 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 15th-20th January 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – if you

want us to conduct additional analyses (by

brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index continues to improve: reaching 33.3 in January 2014, the fourth record breaking

performance in row:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, January 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14


A Matter of Measurement

Dec ’13: 24% Jan ’14: 20%

Dec ’13: 36% Jan ’14: 36%

Dec ’13: 31% Jan ’14: 34%

Dec ’13: 8% Jan ’14: 9%

Dec ’13: 1% Jan ’14: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jan-10 32 34 31 3 0 27.1

Jan-11 56 23 18 2 1 17.3

Jan-12 58 24 16 2 0 15.4

Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9

Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2

Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Jan-10 52 50 61 55

Jan-11 26 39 48 49

Jan-12 21 37 45 46

Jan-13 32 40 47 47

Dec-13 37 40 49 43

Jan-14 41 44 53 46


ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jan-10 21 26 60 29

Jan-11 13 22 59 22

Jan-12 14 24 57 24

Jan-13 22 27 57 27

Dec-13 22 26 55 26

Jan-14 23 25 57 24


Brighter Outlook

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”


January 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1003 495 507 169 224 187 157 266 280 478 525

Strongly Agree 14% 14% 14% 19% 18% 8% 9% 16% 16% 17% 12%

Slightly Agree 38% 38% 39% 41% 34% 38% 37% 42% 39% 41% 36%

Neither/Nor 16% 17% 14% 11% 20% 18% 14% 14% 16% 15% 16%

Slightly Disagree 17% 16% 18% 15% 18% 17% 20% 15% 16% 16% 18%

Strongly Disagree 13% 13% 13% 11% 7% 17% 20% 12% 12% 10% 16%


Buy Irish

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1003 495 507 169 224 187 157 266 280 478 525

Strongly Agree 5% 4% 5% 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 4%

Slightly Agree 18% 18% 18% 22% 21% 16% 14% 17% 19% 20% 16%

Neither/Nor 20% 24% 17% 17% 21% 19% 14% 26% 24% 23% 18%

Slightly Disagree 27% 26% 28% 31% 26% 26% 29% 26% 23% 27% 27%

Strongly Disagree 28% 26% 29% 18% 23% 35% 38% 27% 28% 23% 32%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

Ma

yJun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

4

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1003 495 507 169 224 187 157 266 280 478 525

Enjoyment 53% 55% 50% 54% 47% 49% 63% 53% 50% 57% 49%

Happiness 53% 51% 55% 57% 57% 52% 50% 50% 51% 55% 51%

Stress 45% 42% 47% 51% 49% 51% 50% 31% 48% 44% 46%

Worry 41% 39% 44% 42% 43% 49% 44% 33% 42% 41% 42%

Anxiety 33% 33% 34% 38% 32% 39% 33% 28% 32% 34% 33%

Boredom 27% 31% 23% 39% 30% 31% 19% 17% 21% 25% 28%

Physical Pain 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% 24% 29% 27% 26% 22% 27%

Sadness 20% 18% 22% 26% 21% 19% 19% 18% 21% 20% 20%

Anger 17% 19% 15% 19% 17% 24% 16% 12% 16% 15% 19%

Fear 11% 10% 12% 13% 14% 14% 7% 7% 12% 10% 12%


% saying Yes: January 2014

Drivers & Drinking

we ask the right questions

so you get the right answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your hack

your way to growth in 2014:

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

amárach economic recovery index january 2014

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