amárach economic recovery index february 2012

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

February 2012

© Amárach Research


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out two years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

February 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 6th-12th February 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Jan’12: 58% Feb’12: 55%

Jan’12: 24% Feb’12: 24%

Jan’12: 16% Feb’12: 18%

Jan’12: 2% Feb’12: 2%

Jan’12: 0% Feb’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The consumer outlook has improved slightly at the start of the year:


The Stages of Recovery

FEBRUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524

The economic

situation in Ireland is

getting worse

54% 49% 58% 32% 52% 63% 66% 56% 49% 58%

The economic

situation is bad but

has stabilized

24% 28% 20% 29% 28% 19% 15% 26% 24% 23%

The economic

situation is bad but

showing a few signs of

improvement

18% 18% 17% 32% 15% 14% 16% 15% 22% 14%

The economic

situation is getting

better and showing

clear signs of

improvement

2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2%

The economic

situation is good and

almost fully recovered

from the recession

* 1% 0 1% * 0 0 * * *

Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:

Source: Amárach Research, February 2012


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI stood at 16.9 in February 2012, the highest level since October 2011:

The Economic Recovery Index



34%41%44% 42%43%

46%48%

41% 43%

52%

41% 42% 43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26% 18%

23%26%24% 25% 24%28%

23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60%62%

55%

51%

51%

61%

55% 54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46%44%

33%41%

48%44%

48% 47%53%

47%48%48%47%49%42%39%

45%44%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:



48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%

45% 45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%

47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%

34%39%

34%38%38% 34%33%37%41%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 2

59%

62% 61% 60% 61% 60%56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53% 51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%

49%46%49%45% 45%43%46%49%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly




43% 43%42%46%

35%40% 39%

30%35% 36%

33%28% 27%

14%18%

25%

20%

21% 17%25%

20% 16%11%

16% 15% 13% 12% 12%16%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 3

22%

22% 21% 22% 21% 18%23%

20%

20% 21%21%18%

20%13%

15%

18%

17%

17%

17%

21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15%19%

Oc

t '0

9

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan Feb

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Sep

t

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly




Job Issues

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am less worried about losing my job than I was before”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524

Strongly Agree 8% 10% 6% 8% 12% 7% 7% 6% 9% 7%

Slightly Agree 11% 13% 8% 10% 16% 15% 11% 5% 12% 10%

Neither/Nor 25% 25% 24% 25% 21% 26% 26% 26% 28% 21%

Slightly Disagree 14% 13% 16% 12% 13% 16% 19% 12% 17% 11%

Strongly Disagree 23% 22% 24% 21% 26% 28% 25% 17% 19% 27%


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: February 2010, 2011, 2012 & January 2012

18% 14% 14% 17%

Feb'10 Feb'11 Jan'12 Feb'12

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

62% 58% 61% 61%


Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

26% 27% 24% 29%


I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

29% 24% 24% 26%


I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 62% 61% 57% 57%


Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Room for a View

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I think that now is a good time to buy a house for those who want to”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524

Strongly Agree 31% 32% 31% 28% 32% 28% 36% 32% 29% 33%

Slightly Agree 29% 30% 29% 27% 31% 33% 22% 30% 30% 28%

Neither/Nor 11% 10% 11% 17% 10% 8% 11% 9% 11% 11%

Slightly Disagree 11% 12% 9% 8% 11% 15% 7% 11% 12% 10%

Strongly Disagree 13% 12% 14% 11% 11% 11% 22% 14% 12% 15%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

Jun

e

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry



The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n '1

2

Fe

b

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger



Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524

Enjoyment 55% 57% 52% 49% 57% 46% 60% 61% 60% 51%

Happiness 51% 50% 51% 62% 48% 41% 54% 50% 54% 48%

Stress 41% 41% 42% 51% 45% 51% 41% 25% 40% 42%

Worry 38% 37% 40% 41% 42% 45% 35% 31% 36% 40%

Anxiety 29% 28% 31% 24% 34% 29% 30% 28% 30% 29%

Boredom 24% 25% 24% 48% 29% 22% 17% 11% 25% 24%

Physical Pain 22% 22% 21% 17% 21% 22% 23% 24% 17% 26%

Sadness 18% 19% 17% 20% 23% 16% 16% 16% 18% 19%

Anger 15% 19% 11% 15% 17% 16% 19% 10% 15% 15%

Fear 10% 11% 9% 8% 15% 11% 9% 6% 9% 11%


% saying Yes: February 2012


Seasons and Hope

The February results for the Economic

Recovery Index signal a steady, albeit modest

improvement in several component measures.

Especially encouraging is the improvement in

indicators relating to people’s perceptions of

how well placed they are to weather the

continuing recession.

As ever, the recession is not evenly distributed:

older, middle aged adults are generally more

negative than younger age groups.

The results are tentative, but a continuation of

this trend into March may well signal better

momentum at the start of 2012 than we saw in

late 2011 – and finally some good news for

Ireland’s hard-pressed marketers.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach Research

We are an independent market research

agency, providing a full range of research

services to our Irish and international clients.

Our team of 30 research & support staff have

worked with most of Ireland’s top 200

companies. Every year we survey over

100,000 people at home and abroad, as well

as running hundreds of focus groups.

Our experienced team of directors and

executives manage online, face-to-face and

cati surveys; as well as qualitative research

including focus groups, in-depths and

ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique

field-only service to universities and

international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to

bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Director

or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to

explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

amárach economic recovery index february 2012

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