the economic recovery index october results 2009

The Economic Recovery IndexThe Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingAn Amárach Research Briefing

October Index ResultsOctober Index Results

© Amárach Research 2009

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Timing Recovery

All recessions end in recovery – so will this one

The biggest forecasting challenge is

timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started?

Amárach Research has developed the

Business Cycle Peaks & TroughsBusiness Cycle Peaks & Troughs

Amárach Research has developed the Economic Recovery Index to help us

track the economic cycle more closely

This report summarises the ERI results

for April to October 2009

The July fieldwork was conducted on

18th-23rd October inclusive

AmárachAmárach ResearchResearch Economic Recovery IndexEconomic Recovery Index

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A Matter of Measurement

Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle


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A Matter of Measurement

AprilApril 00%% OctoberOctober 00%%

October has seen the strongest ERI score since April: as many people think the worst is over as think it’s still getting worse

April 77%April 77% OctoberOctober 4747%%

AprilApril 1414%% October 30October 30%%

April 8%April 8% October October 2323%%

April April 11%% OctoberOctober 11%%


Economic Recovery IndexEconomic Recovery Index

Using the answers to the survey we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)

The ERI has improved strongly through August and October, recovering all of the ground lost in June-July

0 100

April

20092009 ERI ScoreERI Score

AprilApril 8.3

MayMay 16.3

JuneJune 17.8

JulyJuly 15.0

AugustAugust 17.0

SeptemberSeptember 18.4

OctoberOctober 19.6AmárachAmárach ResearchResearch Economic Recovery IndexEconomic Recovery Index

October

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Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey

Percent of adults who agree with each statement: September and October 2009

46%

48%

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession

in 12 months time

62%

55%

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic

situation

60%56%

The recession is affecting other people

more than it is affecting me

September October September October

48%46%

September October

I feel financially comfortable enough to

make it through the recession

18%

16%

September October

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago

September October


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Mood of the Nation

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?

September and October 2009

61%

52%47%

39%

61%

54%

40%

34%

18%22%

19%

34%

16%19%

13%

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Sadness Physical Pain

Anger

September October


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Insights & Implications

October has seen a continuing improvement in the general public’s perceptions of the current status of the recession-recovery cycle. This bodes well for consumer markets in particular, and the wider economy in general, if it translates into increased spending.

But that is a big ‘IF’. Other indicators in our ERI survey point to little real change in ERI survey point to little real change in consumer sentiment in relation to willingness to spend or confidence about their financial ability to get through the recession.

So the improvement in the ERI in October may well herald a better macro-economic outlook in the months ahead, but it is too early to tell if consumers are about to loosen their purses and wallets in the run up to Christmas and into 2010.


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About Amárach

Amárach Research is a full service market research agency

The questions for the Economic Recovery Index are run on our monthly

online omnibus survey of 1,000 adults

Keep up with Amárach’s thinking by

subscribing to our free fortnightly ezine: Consumer Foresight

More information at:www.amarach.com

Check out our blog here:www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com


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Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill - ChairmanBernadette Coyne – Managing Director

Amárach Research11 Kingswood Business Centre

Citywest Business Campus

Dublin 24Dublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200E. [email protected]

[email protected]. www.amarach.com

B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com


the economic recovery index october results 2009

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