amarach economic recovery index december 2012

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

December 2012additional analysis by: Main bank, supermarket, mobile network, daily newspaper,TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer, other

© Amárach Research


Emotional Budget

Our December ERI caught the Irish consumer at a stressful time – fieldwork literally coincided with the announcement of the Government’s Budget 2013.

This can be seen in the indices for positive and negative emotions in Ireland – the gap got a lot closer this month: not a good sign coming up to Christmas.

Nevertheless, the key indicators for spending, saving and borrowing intentions did not deteriorate on the previous month: so maybe there’ll be a Christmas surge at the shops yet.

As a special Christmas present to our readers we have broken out our ERI measures by a range of sectors and companies so you can gauge how well your customers – and your competitors’ – are doing at the end of 2012.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions.

This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2012.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 1st to 8th December 2012 inclusive.


A Matter of Measurement

Nov’12: 47% Dec’12: 49%

Nov’12: 30% Dec’12: 28%

Nov’12: 20% Dec’12: 20%

Nov’12: 3% Dec’12: 3%

Nov’12: 0% Dec’12: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

Our ERI Index remained flat in December 2012, with nearly half feeling the economic situation in Ireland is getting worse:


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The ERI has continued to weaken steadily since July – though December’s index is still up on December 2011:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, December 2012

Apr '09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10

May

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11

May

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12

Feb Mar Apr '12

May

June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Recovery Outlook 1

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:



Recovery Outlook 2

% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:



Heads Down: 1

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by gender, household income & presence and age of children):“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


December 2012 TOTAL Male Female Under €30k

€30-€60k

€60-€90k

€90k+Has

Child -ren

No Child

-ren

Child Under

17

Child Over

17

Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337

Strongly Agree 8% 9% 6% 4% 9% 13% 29% 7% 9% 6% 8%

Slightly Agree 24% 27% 22% 16% 29% 41% 27% 23% 25% 18% 27%

Neither/Nor 13% 14% 12% 12% 13% 11% 14% 13% 14% 15% 10%

Slightly Disagree 26% 25% 27% 30% 26% 21% 20% 24% 28% 27% 23%

Strongly Disagree 27% 24% 30% 37% 22% 13% 7% 30% 22% 32% 30%


Heads Down: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


December 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB TescoDunne Stores

Aldi O2Voda fone

3Irish

TimesIrish Indo

Irish Daily Mail

Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68

Strongly Agree 8% 9% 9% 5% 8% 8% 5% 10% 7% 4% 14% 14% 7%

Slightly Agree 24% 23% 26% 23% 26% 29% 21% 23% 25% 23% 31% 27% 18%

Neither/Nor 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 10% 11% 12% 15% 14% 13% 11% 15%

Slightly Disagree 26% 27% 24% 19% 26% 27% 29% 31% 24% 17% 25% 28% 29%

Strongly Disagree 27% 27% 24% 37% 26% 24% 31% 23% 28% 36% 15% 19% 26%


Heads Down: 3

% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of other organisations – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


December 2012 Total Sky UPCSaor -view

Electric Ireland

AirtricityBord Gais

VHI Aviva LibertyIrish Life

eircom

Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332

Strongly Agree 8% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 5% 11% 9% 9% 13% 9%

Slightly Agree 24% 23% 26% 27% 24% 27% 22% 38% 33% 23% 33% 30%

Neither/Nor 13% 12% 15% 12% 11% 15% 15% 9% 16% 11% 11% 12%

Slightly Disagree 26% 22% 24% 34% 26% 27% 25% 22% 26% 26% 23% 23%

Strongly Disagree 27% 33% 24% 19% 29% 20% 33% 18% 13% 29% 18% 24%


% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: December 2010, 2011, 2012 & November 2012

Dec'10 Dec'11 Nov'12 Dec'12

11% 14% 16% 15%

I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago


55% 54% 61% 62%

Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to


23% 27% 25% 22%

I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession


21% 22% 22% 22%

I would be happy to bor-row from a bank if I need

to


58% 56% 53% 54%

Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:• Spending• Saving• Debt• Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators



Spendthrift: 1

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”



€30-€60k

€60-€90k

€90k+Has

Child -ren

No Child

-ren

Child Under

17

Child Over

17

Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337

Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% 5% 10% 4% 4% 5% 2%

Slightly Agree 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 18% 15% 10% 12% 9% 9%

Neither/Nor 15% 15% 14% 12% 16% 19% 15% 14% 17% 9% 15%

Slightly Disagree 28% 30% 26% 25% 34% 26% 39% 25% 32% 24% 27%

Strongly Disagree 42% 37% 47% 51% 35% 32% 21% 47% 35% 51% 46%


Spendthrift: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”


December 2012 Total AIB BOI PTSB TescoDunne Stores

Aldi O2Voda fone

3Irish

TimesIrish Indo

Irish Daily Mail

Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68

Strongly Agree 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 5%

Slightly Agree 11% 13% 11% 8% 9% 11% 11% 11% 11% 9% 16% 9% 11%

Neither/Nor 15% 14% 16% 14% 15% 15% 11% 17% 15% 12% 16% 16% 15%

Slightly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 22% 32% 34% 24% 27% 28% 25% 33% 24% 21%

Strongly Disagree 42% 41% 39% 52% 39% 36% 51% 41% 42% 49% 30% 43% 48%


Spendthrift: 3

% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of other organisations – who agree/disagree with the statement:“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”


December 2012 Total Sky UPCSaor -view

Electric Ireland

AirtricityBord Gais


eircom

Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332

Strongly Agree 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4%

Slightly Agree 11% 11% 10% 7% 11% 10% 11% 14% 13% 13% 15% 14%

Neither/Nor 15% 11% 19% 19% 15% 15% 13% 18% 19% 12% 20% 17%

Slightly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 31% 24% 34% 27% 29% 27% 28%

Strongly Disagree 42% 45% 37% 43% 43% 39% 46% 30% 34% 41% 33% 37%


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2012


Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

tO

ctN

ovD

ec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

neJu

lyA

ugS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

neJu

lyA

ugS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ctN

ovD

ec

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2012


AM

ay Jun

Jul

Au

g

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

bM

ar AM

ayJ

Au

g

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

bM

ar AM

ay

Au

g

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

bM

ar AM

ay

Au

g

Oct

No

vD

ec0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods: 1



€30-€60k

€60-€90k

€90k+Has

Child -ren

No Child

-ren

Child Under

17

Child Over

17

Weighted Sample 1003 496 507 353 322 114 40 605 399 345 337

Enjoyment 49% 49% 49% 40% 53% 62% 65% 51% 47% 43% 56%

Happiness 47% 45% 49% 39% 46% 62% 59% 46% 47% 44% 47%

Stress 45% 43% 48% 45% 46% 46% 45% 43% 49% 49% 37%

Worry 42% 40% 45% 49% 39% 39% 45% 43% 41% 50% 37%

Anxiety 31% 26% 36% 32% 32% 33% 20% 31% 31% 35% 30%

Boredom 25% 26% 23% 26% 20% 30% 28% 20% 32% 24% 16%

Physical Pain 20% 19% 21% 20% 21% 21% 14% 22% 17% 20% 24%

Sadness 18% 14% 21% 21% 17% 14% 10% 17% 19% 16% 17%

Anger 16% 18% 14% 16% 13% 17% 21% 15% 17% 18% 13%

Fear 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% 9% 16% 10% 11% 12% 8%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?% saying Yes: December 2012


Changing Moods: 2

% of Irish adults – by main bank, supermarket, mobile network and daily newspaper: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: December 2012


December 2012

Total AIB BOI PTSB TescoDunne Stores

Aldi O2Voda fone

3Irish

TimesIrish Indo

Irish Daily Mail

Weighted Sample 1003 357 302 156 360 184 171 237 365 90 205 210 68

Enjoyment 49% 49% 51% 49% 47% 51% 45% 48% 52% 47% 57% 57% 48%

Happiness 47% 49% 47% 43% 47% 50% 41% 48% 47% 45% 52% 51% 54%

Stress 45% 49% 41% 48% 47% 42% 50% 45% 45% 52% 47% 43% 54%

Worry 42% 46% 41% 38% 41% 42% 48% 46% 37% 44% 39% 40% 49%

Anxiety 31% 30% 28% 31% 32% 31% 31% 32% 30% 36% 32% 27% 36%

Boredom 25% 25% 24% 21% 25% 26% 27% 20% 23% 30% 22% 24% 29%

Physical Pain 20% 24% 15% 20% 17% 21% 21% 19% 23% 20% 18% 16% 15%

Sadness 18% 17% 17% 20% 20% 18% 14% 16% 19% 18% 16% 15% 14%

Anger 16% 15% 16% 14% 17% 18% 18% 13% 18% 19% 18% 16% 11%

Fear 10% 11% 10% 10% 14% 8% 8% 10% 7% 11% 13% 12% 11%


Changing Moods: 3

% of Irish adults – by TV service provider, electricity provider, health insurer and customers of other organisations: did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? Yes: December 2012


December 2012

Total Sky UPCSaor -view

Electric Ireland

Airtricity

Bord Gais


eircom

Weighted Sample 1003 410 277 151 536 258 187 233 109 79 277 332

Enjoyment 49% 51% 52% 51% 50% 52% 46% 58% 56% 47% 61% 53%

Happiness 47% 47% 49% 47% 49% 43% 45% 56% 53% 45% 52% 47%

Stress 45% 45% 45% 49% 44% 44% 51% 46% 33% 50% 32% 43%

Worry 42% 45% 40% 42% 42% 40% 46% 37% 41% 34% 29% 38%

Anxiety 31% 32% 34% 28% 30% 30% 37% 32% 29% 38% 29% 30%

Boredom 25% 23% 23% 28% 25% 21% 27% 20% 18% 19% 20% 20%

Physical Pain 20% 22% 16% 21% 22% 21% 15% 22% 15% 18% 20% 23%

Sadness 18% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 21% 15% 11% 16% 14% 14%

Anger 16% 15% 15% 19% 15% 17% 17% 13% 16% 10% 12% 14%

Fear 10% 12% 9% 10% 9% 10% 14% 10% 12% 5% 9% 11%


ERI Resources

We have created a dedicated resource on the Amárach website for those interested in exploring our Economic Recovery Index further.

It includes links to previous issues as well as to a spreadsheet containing monthly values for all the component parts of the ERI – and more besides – going right back to April 2009.

There is also a link to a special data visualisation facility we have created in partnership with Delphi Analytics.

Drivers & Drinking

About Amárach

Amárach Research is an independent market research agency, providing a full range of research services to our Irish and international clients. Amárach specialises in turning information into insight; and insight into foresight.

Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and executives manage online, face-to-face and cati surveys (through our call centre); as well as qualitative research including focus groups, in-depths and ethnographic studies. We also delivers a world class field-only service to universities and international agencies.

Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered innovative research techniques and reported on Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the 1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding current Irish consumer and business trends, and shares numerous, free reports and presentations via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our main website: www.amarach.com

Trends Report

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bounce forward to success:

Mark Nolan Managing Directoror Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive

or Gerard O’Neill Chairman

for a confidential discussion about your needs and to explore how we can help you succeed through world

class market research.

e. [email protected]. www.amarach.com

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amarach economic recovery index december 2012

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