the economic recovery index august results 2009

The Economic Recovery IndexThe Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingAn Amárach Research Briefing

August Index August Index ResultsResults

© Amárach Research 2009

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Timing Recovery

All recessions end in recovery – so will

this one

The biggest forecasting challenge is

Business Cycle Peaks & TroughsBusiness Cycle Peaks & Troughs

The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession

is over and recovery has started?

Amárach Research has developed the Economic Recovery Index to help us

track the economic cycle more closely

This report summarises the ERI results This report summarises the ERI results

for April to August 2009

The July fieldwork was conducted on

18th-24th August inclusive

AmárachAmárach ResearchResearch Economic Economic Recovery IndexRecovery Index

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A Matter of Measurement

Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them

to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle


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A Matter of Measurement

After July’s weakening in our index, there has been some recovery, though not quite all the way back to the most recent high in June

However the percentage saying the economy is ‘bad but improving’ is the highest since we started compiling the Index in April

JulyJuly 11%% August August 11%%


July July 5858%% August August 5353%%

JulyJuly 2525%% August 26August 26%%



Economic Recovery IndexEconomic Recovery Index

Using the answers to the survey we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)

The ERI improved between July and August, recovering some of the ground lost in

June-July

0 10020092009 ERI ScoreERI Score0 100

April

May

June

AprilApril 8

MayMay 16

JuneJune 18

JulyJuly 15

AugustAugust 17July August


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Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey

Percent of adults who agree with each statement: July and August 2009

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic

The recession is affecting other people

42%

43%

July August

worst of the recession in 12 months time

58%

60%

July August

the current economic situation

Now is a good time for I feel financially

comfortable enough to I have started saving a lot more than before because

60%61%

July August

affecting other people more than it is affecting

me

56%55%

July August

young people to buy their first home

47%48%

July August

comfortable enough to make it through the

recession 38%

33%

July August

more than before because of the recession


7

Mood of the Nation

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?July and August 2009

58% 60%58%54%

45%40%

20% 19% 18%

60%55%

47%

37%

15%

23%18%

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Sadness Physical Pain

Anger

July August


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Insights & Implications

The longer the recession continues the more likely it is that those not directly affected will begin to assume that they have ‘dodged the

bullet’

This in turn will lead to some reduction in precautionary savings behaviour (as has

happened) which should feed through into a modest increase in consumer spending

However, this increase will not be sufficient in the short term to offset the negative impact of continuing increases in unemployment and reductions in after tax incomereductions in after tax income

Nevertheless, at some stage, the majority of consumers (and workers – who will not lose their jobs) will loosen the purse strings as they

believe the economic cycle has reached the trough and moved beyond it.


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About Amárach

Amárach Research is a full service market research agency

The questions for the Economic Recovery Index are run on our monthly online omnibus survey of 1,000 adults

Keep up with Amárach’s thinking by subscribing to our free fortnightly ezine: Consumer Foresight

More information at:www.amarach.com

Check out our blog here:www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com


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Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill - Chairman

Sylvia Langtree - Director

Amárach ResearchAmárach Research11 Kingswood Business Centre

Citywest Business CampusDublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200E. [email protected]. [email protected]

[email protected]. www.amarach.com

B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com


the economic recovery index august results 2009

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