lessons learned from past notable disasters kazakhstan part 2: earthquake walter hays, global...
TRANSCRIPT
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
KAZAKHSTANPART 2: EARTHQUAKE
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA
KAZAKSTAN
COPING WITH EARTHQUAKE RISK IN AN AREA OF CONTINENTIAL
COLLISION
LOCATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
THE M8.4 CHILIK EARTHQUAKE OF JULY 31, 1889
One of the world’s largest historic intraplate reverse-faulting events.
Many landslides occurred in the region of the Chilik and Charyn rivers and in the mountains..
THE M8.4 CHILIK EARTHQUAKE OF JULY 31, 1889 (continued)
Many buildings collapsed from the strong ground shaking..
RECENT EARTHQUAKE:11:28 PM, MAY 31, 2012
A strong, shallow, but much smaller earthquake occurred near the Altyn Emel National Park area, a sparsely populated part of Eastern Kazakhstan, about 50 km from the epicenter of the 1889 Chilik quake.
TO BECOME EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT IS
THE CHALLENGE
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY
RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE
SPECIFIC HAZARD: EXPOSURE: PEOPLE
BUILDING STOCK
INFRASTRUCTURE
GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•NATURAL HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY IENCE
FOUR PILLARS OF FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCERESILIENCE
A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE NATIONAL POLICIES
ALLOW IT TO BE …
UN—PREPARED
UN—PROTECTED
UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
UN (NON)--RESILIENT
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. PREPAREDNESS (HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK
ASSESSMENTS; PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS AND WARNING; DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS; INSURANCE;
INTELLIGENT COMMUNITY); …
1. PREPAREDNESS (HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK
ASSESSMENTS; PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS AND WARNING; DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS; INSURANCE;
INTELLIGENT COMMUNITY); …
KAZAKHSTAN: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
KAZAKHSTAN: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• THEIR VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• THEIR VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
KAZAKHSTAN: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
KAZAKHSTAN: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• THEIR VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• THEIR VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
2. PROTECTION (IMPLEMENTATION OF BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE
STANDARDS; SITE-SPECIFIC DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR
ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES) …
2. PROTECTION (IMPLEMENTATION OF BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE
STANDARDS; SITE-SPECIFIC DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR
ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES) …
FROM UN—PROTECTED TO
PROTECTED
FROM UN—PROTECTED TO
PROTECTED
IMPORTANT BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL IMPORTANT BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEED PROTECTIONINFRASTRUCTURE NEED PROTECTIONIMPORTANT BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL IMPORTANT BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEED PROTECTIONINFRASTRUCTURE NEED PROTECTION
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
3. EARLY WARNING (but not yet for earthquakes (ADVANCE WARNING
MESSAGES, EVACUATION TO SAFE HAVENS, MASS CARE, RETURN TO
HOMES OR TEMPORARY SHELTERS…)
3. EARLY WARNING (but not yet for earthquakes (ADVANCE WARNING
MESSAGES, EVACUATION TO SAFE HAVENS, MASS CARE, RETURN TO
HOMES OR TEMPORARY SHELTERS…)
FROM UN—WARNED TO
SAFELY EVACUATED
FROM UN—WARNED TO
SAFELY EVACUATED
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
4. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (EVACUATION; EMERGENCY MEDICAL; MASS CARE; SEARCH AND RESCUE;
EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE)…
4. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (EVACUATION; EMERGENCY MEDICAL; MASS CARE; SEARCH AND RESCUE;
EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE)…
FROM UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFECTIVELY
TO “INTELLIGENT” RESPONSE
FROM UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFECTIVELY
TO “INTELLIGENT” RESPONSE
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued)
4. RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION; (INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL BUSINESS RESUMPTION; POST-DISASTER STUDIES FOR PRE-
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, …)
4. RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION; (INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL BUSINESS RESUMPTION; POST-DISASTER STUDIES FOR PRE-
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, …)
FROM A UN (NON)—RESILIENT CITY
TO A RESILIENT CITY
FROM A UN (NON)—RESILIENT CITY
TO A RESILIENT CITY
A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT
WHEN IT IS …
PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS THAT ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE WRONG TIME AND IN THE WRONG PLACE RELATIVE TO
THE CITY’S SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS
A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT
WHEN …
ITS PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE, ESSENTIAL AND
CRITICAL FACILITIES ARE PROTECTED BY CODES & STANDARDS AGAINST
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF LIKELY NATURAL HAZARDS
A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT
WHEN …
IT IS ABLE TO: A) RESPOND EFFECTIVELY IN REAL TIME TO MOVE PEOLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY, B) MEET
THEIR NEEDS IN A CRISIS ENVIRONMENT, AND C) PROTECT
ASSETS, WITH AND WITHOUT HELP
A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT
WHEN …
IT’S POLICIES NOT ONLY RESIST DISASTERS WITHOUT FAILING, BUT
ALSO ARE MANDATES TO LOOK BEYOND TO A FUTURE OF
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMNT
DISASTER RESILIENCE INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND
SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES”
WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE
COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS TO ADOPT REALISTIC PUBLIC
POLICIES
DISASTER RESILIENCE INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND
SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES”
WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE
COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS TO ADOPT REALISTIC PUBLIC
POLICIESFORD
COMMUNITY DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
COMMUNITY DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
WHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDAWHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA(CA) OF TECHNICAL (CA) OF TECHNICAL
AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONSAND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
WHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDAWHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA(CA) OF TECHNICAL (CA) OF TECHNICAL
AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONSAND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONSTECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONSPOLITICAL POLITICAL
SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
CACA
THE EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR THE EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR THE EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE
FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORSON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORS
FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORSON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORS
TECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONSTECHNICAL TECHNICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
POLITICAL POLITICAL SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONSPOLITICAL POLITICAL
SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
STAPLESTAPLE FACTORSFACTORSSTAPLESTAPLE
FACTORSFACTORS
PPPP
TTTTSSSS
OOOO
CACA