LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

NEW ZEALANDPART 4: VOLCANOES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANOES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s Restlessness is Caused by Heat Flow, Which Causes Subduction of Some Tectonic Plates, which Causes:

Volcanic Eruptions

NEW ZEALAND HAS SOME OF THE GLOBES 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOESNEW ZEALAND HAS SOME OF THE

GLOBES 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

NEW ZEALAND: LOCATED ASTRIDE TWO CONVERGENT TETONIC PLATES

New Zealand is in the southwest Pacific Ocean astride the “ring

of fire,” a distinct belt of volcanic and earthquake activity

that surrounds the Pacific Ocean

To the north of New Zealand and beneath the eastern North Island, the thin, dense, Pacific plate moves down beneath the thicker, lighter Indo-Australian plate in a process known as subduction.

SUBDUCTION BENEATH THE NORTH ISLAND CAUSES VOLCANOES

NEW ZEALAND’S VOLCANOES: (VICINITY OF THE NORTH ISLAND)

SOME OF NEW ZEALAND’S VOLANOES

TAUPO

WHITE ISLAND

TONGARIRO

RUAPEHU

THE 140 SQ KM AUCKLAND VOLCANO FIELD

AUCKLAND: COEXISTING WITH A VOLCANO FIELD

AUCKLAND VOLCANIC FIELD

• The Auckland volcanic field underlies much of the metropolitan area of Auckland.

• Now dormant, but considered likely to erupt again, the field's many vents have produced a diverse array of explosion craters, scoria cones, and lava flows in the past.

AUCKLAND VOLCANO FIELD

AUCKLAND VOLCANO FIELD

ONE TREE HILL: AUKLAND VOLCANO FIELD

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

VOLCANO HAZARDS:

ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME

• ASH AND TEPHRA

• LATERAL BLAST

• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS

• LAHARS

• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)

• TSUNAMI (sometimes)

• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANO INTERACT WITH

THE VULNERABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF NEW

ZEALAND’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANO INTERACT WITH

THE VULNERABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF NEW

ZEALAND’S COMMUNITIES

NEW ZEALAND’S CITIES

LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

FLYING DEBRIS

VOLCANIC ASH

LAVA FLOWS

LAHARS

TOXIC GASES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, landslides,..) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A DISASTER:

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A DISASTER:

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

NEW NEW ZEALAND’S ZEALAND’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

NEW NEW ZEALAND’S ZEALAND’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES EARL WARNING AND EVACUATION STRATEGIES ARE ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

NEW ZEALAND’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE

NEW ZEALAND’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE

• ---BUT, IT IS ALWAYS A WAITING GAME WITH A VOLCANO.

NEW ZEALAND’S HISTORIC VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

New Zealand’s volcanic history dates back 60-130

million years, ranging from supervolcanoes to today’s activity consisting of minor

eruptions every few years as a result of NZ’s location in

the Pacific Ring of Fire

NEW ZEALAND’S PAST ERUPTIONS

• New Zealand has been the site of many large explosive eruptions during the last two million years, including several of the supervolcano size.

• Notable eruptions include: Macauley Island, Taupo, Whakamaru, Mangakino, Reporoa, Rotoura, and Haroharo.

TAUPO VOLCANO

• The Oruanui eruption, 26,500 years ago from the Taupo volcano, was the world's largest known eruption in the past 70,000 years, with a VEI of 8.

TAUPO VOLCANO

• Most of New Zealand was covered with ash that reached 18 cm (7 in) at the Chatham Islands 1,000 km (620 mi) from the volcano.

TAUPO VOLCANO

• Subsequent erosion and sedimentation had long-lasting effects on the landscape, causing the Waikato River to shift from the Hauraki Plains to its current course through the Waikato to the Tasman Sea.

.

TAUPO VOLCANO

• Lake Taupo, New Zealand's largest lake, now fills the caldera formed in this eruption.

NEW ZEALAND’S RECENT VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Even if future eruptions are minor, the people of New

Zealand are still at high risk from the ash fall, lahars, and

tsunamis associated with them.

RUAPEHU

• Ruapehu's 1945 eruption dammed its crater with tephra, which contributed to the Tangiwai disaster of December 24, 1953 when the Tangiwai railway bridge across the Whangaehu River collapsed from a revitalized lahar, killing 151.

RUAPEHU

• Ash plumes from Ruapehu's 1996 eruption forced the closure of eleven airports, including Auckland’s International Airport.

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES

• MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT

• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES

• MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT