LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

TURKEYPART 3: EARTHQUAKES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

TURKEY

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEYDISASTERS IN TURKEY

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEYDISASTERS IN TURKEY

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

WILDFIRES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH-QUAKES

TECTONIC PLATES

TECTONIC PLATES

ANATOLIAN PLATE AND NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT

TURKEY’S SEISMICITY: 1900 TO PRESENT

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE

FAULTS

IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE

FAULTS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS

ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS

SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND

FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SITE AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

EXPOSUREMODEL

EXPOSUREMODEL

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

VULNERABILITYMODEL

VULNERABILITYMODEL

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

UNREINFO

RCED MASO

NRY, BRIC

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REINFORCED C

ONCRETE WIT

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FORCED WALLS

INTENSITYINTENSITY

REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS

STEEL FRAME

ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME

VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX

3535

3030

2525

2020

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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

ERZINCAN:TURKEY’S WORST

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DECEMBER 26, 1939

A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE

32,700 DEATHS

M7.8

ERZINCAN

ERZINCAN COLLAPSE

IZMIT:TURKEY’S 2ND WORST

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER AUGUST 17, 1999

A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE

17,118 DEATHS

M7.6

COLLAPSES

IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S PROBLEM: SOFT-STOREY BUILDINGS

IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S PROBLEM: SOFT-STOREY BUILDINGS

THE REASON: LACK OF, OR INADEQUATE

PROTECTION (I.E., ADOPTION AND

IMPLEMENTATION OF A MODERN BUILDING CODE)

THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

TURKEY’S TURKEY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

TURKEY’S TURKEY’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION AND/OR PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE INEVITABLE

EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE INEVITABLE

• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DIS-ASTER RESILIENT.

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A

COMMON GOAL)

FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENT

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A

COMMON GOAL)

FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENT

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

• DATABASES • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE

• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT

• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION

• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)

• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)

• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND

SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP

• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,

HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES• SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND

SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP

• DISASTER SCENARIOS• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,

HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)