lessons learned from past notable disasters egypt part 3: earthquakes

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS EGYPT PART 3: EARTHQUAKES . Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA . EGYPT. POLITICAL MAP OF EGYPT. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN EGYPT. FLOODS. GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES. STORMS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERSEGYPTPART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

  • EGYPT

  • POLITICAL MAP OF EGYPT

  • NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN EGYPTFLOODSSTORMSEARTHQUAKES DUST STORMSENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEHIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENTGOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

  • Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters

    Planet Earths heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH-QUAKES

  • ACKNOWLEDGMENT: Egyptian ministries, universities, and officials contributed data and expertise in conjunction with the RELEMR PROGRAMME administered since 1990 by UNESCO and the USGS

  • Egypt has a very long historical record of earthquakes going back four millennia

  • CAUSE OF SEISMICITYThe interaction of the African, Arabian, Eurasian plates and the Sinai sub-plate is the main factor behind the seismicity of northern Egypt.

  • INTERACTING TECTONIC PLATES

  • ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

  • ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

  • EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

  • EGYPTS SEISMICITY: 1900 TO PRESENT

  • FOUR SEISMIC ZONESAll earthquakes occur at shallow depth and are concentrated at four seismic zones: 1) the Gulf of Suez, 2) Gulf of Aqaba, 3) around the entrance of the Gulf of Suez, and 4) the Dahshur area (south- west of greater Cairo)..

  • EXPOSUREMODEL

  • EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS(the potential disaster agents)SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

  • GROUNDSHAKING

  • GROUND SHAKING

  • PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

  • VULNERABILITYMODEL

  • INTENSITYMEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUECONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING

  • INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKINGEARTHQUAKESSOIL AMPLIFICATIONPERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE)IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

    LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTSCAUSES OF DAMAGEDISASTER LABORATORIES

  • EXAMPLES OF PAST DAMAGING EARTHQUAKES THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKEOCTOBER 12, 1992

  • The historical record shows that moderate-magnitude earthquakes such as those that occurred in 1969, 1974, 1981, 1992, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were very damaging.

  • THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKEThe M5.8 Cairo earthquake occurred at 15:09 local time on 12 October 1992 with an epicenter near Dahshur, 35 km (22 mi) south of Cairo.

  • DAMAGE The areas of greatest damage were in Old Cairo and southwards along the Nile as far as Gerza, on the west bank. 350 buildings were completely destroyed and 9,000 other severely damaged, including 216 mosques and 350 schools.

  • DAMAGE Most of the severe damage was confined to older masonry structures, especially those built of adobe.Liquefaction occurred in areas near the epicenter

  • IMPACTS OF THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKEThe most damaging seismic event to affect Cairo since 1847, the earthquake was unusually destructive for its size, causing 545 deaths, injuring 6,512 and making 50,000 people homeless.Unfortunately, some of the deaths and injuries were due to panic.

  • THE REASON: Egypts buildings usually do not have adequate resistance to horizontal ground shaking, a recipe for disaster

  • A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH EGYPTS COMMUNITIES

  • A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external helpwhen three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,) intersect at a point in spaceand time.

  • Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

  • THE REASONS ARE . . .When it does happen, the functions of the communitys buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

  • THE REASONS ARE . . .The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrencehigh-probability of adverse consequences event.

  • THE REASONS ARE . . .The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

  • THE REASONS ARE . . .The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

  • THE REASONS ARE . . .The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

  • MODERATE EARTHQUAKES IN EGYPT ARE INEVITABLE AND DAMAGING---SO, DONT WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT.

  • THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER ISEARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

  • EGYPTS COMMUNITIESDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONHAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

  • LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCEALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  • LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCEALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  • LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCEALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  • LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCEALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

  • STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT

  • EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

  • EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCEMEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOSZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

  • EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCEAUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMTPREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATIONADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

    COMPUTER AIDED DESIGNPERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDSACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

  • EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCEPROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTSMEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)

    DATABASESSEISMIC ENGINEERING MAPS: GROUND SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIPDISASTER SCENARIOSWARNING SYSTEMSRISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

    More lectures at Disasters Supercourse -http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/collections/collection52.htm***********

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