LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

NEW ZEALANDPART 3A: EARTHQUAKES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s Restlessness Causes Movement of Tectonic Plates:

Earthquakes

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANOES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

TECTONIC PLATES

New Zealand is in the southwest Pacific Ocean astride the “ring

of fire,” a distinct belt of volcanic and earthquake activity

that surrounds the Pacific Ocean

SUBDUCTION OCCURS BENEATH THE NORTH ISLAND

To the north of New Zealand and beneath the eastern North Island, the thin, dense, Pacific plate moves down beneath the thicker, lighter Indo-Australian plate in a process known as subduction (i.e., reverse faulting).

Within the South Island the plate margin is marked by the Alpine

Fault and the plates rub past each other horizontally

(i.e., strike-slip)

NEW ZEALAND’S SUBDUCTION ZONE AND ALPINE FAULT

About 20,000 earthquakes (most, but not all are small)

are recorded in New Zealand every year as a

result of its location in the Pacific Ring of Fire

SEISMICITY MAP: VICINITY OF CHRISTCHURCH

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH THE VULNERABLE BUILT

ENVIRONMENTS OF NEW ZEALAND’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH THE VULNERABLE BUILT

ENVIRONMENTS OF NEW ZEALAND’S COMMUNITIES

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS:

ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SITE AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING MAP (CHRISTCHURCH IN YELLOW)

NEW ZEALAND’S CITIES

The largest cities within this high risk zone are the nation's capital, Wellington, followed

by Hastings then Napier; all of them have experienced damaging earthquakes.

NOTE: The central part of most cities is comprised mainly of old, vulnerable brick and unreinforced

masonry buildings, which are highly susceptible to damage.

UNREINFO

RCED MASO

NRY, BRIC

K OR S

TONE

REINFORCED C

ONCRETE WIT

H UNREIN

FORCED WALLS

INTENSITYINTENSITY

REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS

STEEL FRAME

ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME

VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX

3535

3030

2525

2020

1515

1010

55

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MEA

N D

AM

AG

E R

ATIO

,

%

M

EA

N D

AM

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%

O

F R

EPLA

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MEN

T V

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F R

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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, landslides,..) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO DISASTER:

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO DISASTER:

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

NEW NEW ZEALAND’S ZEALAND’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

NEW NEW ZEALAND’S ZEALAND’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• QUAKE HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

QUAKE DISASTER QUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY GROUND SHAKING AND GROUND FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

NEW ZEALAND’S NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

M7.1 : SATURDAY, SEPT. 3, 2010

TWO EARTHQUAKES SEVERELY CUT NEW

ZEALAND’S 2011 ECONOMIC GROWTH

A DEEP (33 KM) M7.1 AND A SHALLOW (4 KM) M6.3 QUAKE SIX

MONTHS APART COMBINE TO HALF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC

GROWTH

M7.1 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES NEAR

CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND

A DEEP (33 KM) QUAKE LOCATED 50 KM FROM CHRISTCHURCH

STRUCK AT 4:35 AM

SEPTEMBER 3, 2010

EPICENTER: NEAR CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND

In Christchurch, a city of 372,000, power and water services were

knocked out, facades fell off buildings, homes businesses, and bridges were damaged by strong

shaking, fires were ignited, and the Christchurch Airport was closed.

IMPACTSNumerous injuries, but no deaths, largely due to the 4:35 a.m. time of

occurrence, NOT BECAUSE

the buildings were resilient to the strong ground shaking

DAMAGE: BFORE (TOP) AND AFTER (BOTTOM)

TYPICAL DAMAGE: UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGS

DAMAGE: CHRISTCHURCH

DAMAGE TO CARS

DAMAGE: CHRISTCHURCH

POUNDING

FIRE

DAMAGE: CHRISTCHURCH

DAMAGE: CHRISTCHURCH

DAMAGE: MOTORWAY

LOCAL GROUND FAILURE

AFTERSHOCKS OF THE 3 SEPT 2010 QUAKE

• Christchurch was hit by hundreds of aftershocks after the M7.1 earthquake of 3 September 2010, which exacerbated damage and added new injuries, but no new deaths.

THE TOLL: EXTENSIVE DAMAGE, BUT NO DEATHS

• The earthquake (and its aftershocks) caused extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure, but no deaths.

ECONOMIC LOSS:

ESTIMATED AT $1.5 billion.

NEW ZEALAND’S NEXT DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE WAS INEVITABLE

NEW ZEALAND’S NEXT DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE WAS INEVITABLE

• ---BUT, THE NEW ZEALANDERS DIDN’T EXPECT IT SO SOON---FEB. 21, 2011, A SECOND REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE.