lessons learned from past notable disasters japan part 1a: earthquakes

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA . NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK. EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS. GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE. TYPHOONS. FLOODS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

Page 2: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS

TYPHOONS

FLOODS

LANDSLIDES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

Page 3: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

THE TECTONIC PLATES

Page 4: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES
Page 5: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

REGIONAL MAP

Page 6: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKES OCCUR FREQUENTLY IN THE JAPAN AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE AND

EURASIAN PLATES

Page 7: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

Japan’Japan’

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

Japan’Japan’

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•QUAKE HAZARDS•BLDG. INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: EARTHQUAKE GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

Page 8: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

Page 9: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

SOME OF JAPAN’S NOTABLE EARTHQUAKE EXPERIENCES

1923

JUNE 16, 1964

JANUARY 17, 1995

MARCH 11, 2011

Page 10: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

• PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

Page 11: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

• PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

Page 12: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

• CAPACITY FOR INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

Page 13: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

THE GREAT KANTO EARTHQUAKE: SEPT 1, 1923

• The Mw7.9 Great Kanto earthquake, the worst in Japanese history, struck the Kanto Plain near Tokyo in 1923 and resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people.

• The fiery conflagration that followed the earthquake was more deadly than the earthquake’s ground shaking.

Page 14: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

THE NIIGATA EARTHQUAKE: JUNE 16, 1964

• The M7.5 Niigata earthquake devastated Niigata, located 50 km south of the epicenter, mainly as a result of massive soil failure and tsunami waves.

• Although the quake only left 36 dead or missing and 385 injured, the material damage was great: 3,534 houses destroyed, 11,000 houses damaged.

Page 15: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

THE GREAT HANSHIN (KOBE) EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995

• The M6.8 Kobe devastated Kobe.

• Ground shaking and fires together destroyed over 150,000 buildings and left about 300,000 people homeless, 6,434 dead, 415,000 injured, and economic losses of $200 billion

Page 16: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES
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THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995

• The M9.0 Tojoku earthquake was huge, but its ground shaking did NOT cause the disaster that killed an estimated 21,000 people …

• The tsunami generated by the earthquake did!

Page 21: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

TOHOKU QUAKE: THE RESULT OF PLATE TECTONICS

Page 22: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

AN OFFSHORE EPICENTER

• It only took seconds for the P-and S-waves to reach Sendai, and about 15 minutes for the tsunami waves, but what a difference in damage..

Page 23: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

THE GROUND SHAKING

• Strong ground shaking lasted 300 seconds (compared with about 10 - 20 seconds for the 1995 Kobe, Japan quake).

• But, the ground shaking did not cause the disaster this time; the tsunami did.

Page 24: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

TOHOKU: SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS

• The earthquake ground shaking and the tsunami wave run up together caused major damage to 1.2 million buildings.

• Simultaneously, wide spread fires burned out of control.

• Economic losses were estimated at $574 billion.

Page 25: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

• CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

Page 26: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTH-QUAKE DISASTER FOR JAPAN

• A difficult question, but ---

• It is one that was being asked before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake disaster.

Page 27: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

LOCATION OF TOKAI

Page 28: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS

• The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (part of the Eurasian plate).

Page 29: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS

• The section along Tokai has not ruptured since 1854.

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TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS

• The recurrence interval of large- magnitude earthquakes along this boundary is believed to be 100-150 years

Page 31: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS

• At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr.

• Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake could happen anytime.

Page 32: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Before the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the Government of Japan expected its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”

Page 33: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• The precise area along the Pacific coast- about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies,

• And, by law, this area is the focus of intensive preparations.

Page 34: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami.

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FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Estimated property damage –- as much as $310 billion.

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FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations

• Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses

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TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• The Government of Japan has an “early warning action plan based on the concept of “pre-slip.”

• Pre-slip is based on laboratory experiments, which indicate that a rock slips for a short time before it ultimately fails and generates a big quake.

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MONITORING: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record the slip in order to provide as much advance warning as possible.