lessons learned from past notable disasters india part 3: earthquakes walter hays, global alliance...

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

INDIAPART 3: EARTHQUAKES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA

NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIACAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIA

NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE NATURAL AND TECH. HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIACAUSED DISASTERS IN INDIA

FLOODS

SEVERE WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

POWER BLACKOUTS

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTHQUAKES

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL

SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

TECTONICSETTING &

FAULTS

CAUSE OF SEISMICITY

• The interaction of the Indo-Australia and Eurasia plates is the main causative factor for the seismicity of India.

PLATE TECTONICSPLATE TECTONICS

INDIA’S SEISMICITY

INDIA:GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SITE AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS








DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS(the potential disaster

agents)SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE,

GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION,

LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

EXPOSUREMODEL

EXPOSUREMODEL

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

VULNERABILITYMODEL

VULNERABILITYMODEL

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE

RESISTING SYSTEM

VULNERABILITY IS THE ULTIMATE CAUSE OF RISK

UNREINFO

RCED MASO

NRY, BRIC

K OR S

TONE

REINFORCED C

ONCRETE WIT

H UNREIN

FORCED WALLS

INTENSITYINTENSITY

REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS

STEEL FRAME

ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME

VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX

3535

3030

2525

2020

1515

1010

55

00

MEA

N D

AM

AG

E R

ATIO

,

%

M

EA

N D

AM

AG

E R

ATIO

,

%

O

F R

EPLA

CE

MEN

T V

ALU

EO

F R

EPLA

CE

MEN

T V

ALU

E

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND

SHAKING

An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a

community’s actions or policies that change its resistance to

ground shaking

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH INDIA’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH INDIA’S COMMUNITIES

THE GUJARAT, INDIA EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

JANUARY 26, 2001

THE GUJARAT, INDIA EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

JANUARY 26, 2001

GUJARAT EARTHQUAKEGUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE 400 KM FROM PLATE BOUNDARY-- “A SURPRISE”


• MAGNITUDE 7.7

• JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51st Republic Day)

• MAGNITUDE 7.7

• JUST BEFORE 0900 ON A HOLIDAY (51st Republic Day)

• 20,000 DEAD

• 167,000 INJURED

• 400,000 HOMES DESTROYED

• 600,000 HOMELESS

• 20,000 DEAD

• 167,000 INJURED

• 400,000 HOMES DESTROYED

• 600,000 HOMELESS

STRICKEN URBAN CENTERSSTRICKEN URBAN CENTERS

• BHUJ, (150,000), 20 km from epicenter

• Devastated

• BHUJ, (150,000), 20 km from epicenter

• Devastated

• AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION)

• 50 multi-story buildings collapsed

• AHMEDABAD (5.6 MILLION)

• 50 multi-story buildings collapsed

ESTIMATED LOSS: $5.5 BILLION

Over 1 million structures damaged or destroyed.

SEARCH AND RESCUE

HOMELESS: GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

HOMELESS: GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDED FROM ALL OVER

THE WORLD

The impacted area was re-equipped with all the basic

facilities along with state-of-the-art upgrades; Bhuj, for

examples, now has a better hospital, town and first-aid

center

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods.


• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.


• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.


• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.


• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE MOVING TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

EARTH-EARTH-QUAKESQUAKES

EARTH-EARTH-QUAKESQUAKES EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

INDIA’S INDIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

INDIA’S INDIA’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIESDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•QUAKE HAZARDS•PEOPLE & BLDGS. •VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: EARTHQUAKE GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A

COMMON GOAL)

FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENT

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A

COMMON GOAL)

FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENT

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY AND UNLIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE


ALL EARTHQUAKES

PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE


ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE


ALL EARTHQUAKES

TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

lessons learned from past notable disasters india part 3: earthquakes walter hays, global alliance...

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