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PRIORITIZATION OF FUTURE FREIGHT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS WITHIN THE ANCHORAGE METROPOLITAN AREA TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS (AMATS) Prepared for: AMATS Freight Advisory Committee (FAC) Seong Dae Kim, Ph.D. Gary Kretchik, PMP Donghwoon Kwon Project Management Department University of Alaska Anchorage April 23, 2010

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  • PRIORITIZATION OF FUTURE FREIGHT

    INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS WITHIN THE

    ANCHORAGE METROPOLITAN AREA

    TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS (AMATS)

    Prepared for: AMATS Freight Advisory Committee (FAC)

    Seong Dae Kim, Ph.D.

    Gary Kretchik, PMP

    Donghwoon Kwon

    Project Management Department

    University of Alaska Anchorage

    April 23, 2010

  • ABSTRACT

    The purpose of this project is to lay a foundation for the Anchorage Metro Area

    Transportation Solutions (AMATS) Freight Advisory Committee's (FAC) long-term vision of

    identifying the freight infrastructure projects in Anchorage.

    This phase of the study consisted of three components which progressively fed into one

    another. The first deliverable was a database which was constructed based on a) Subjective

    criteria obtained in a survey to local freight drivers, and b) Objective criteria such as freight

    traffic volumes and freight accident data. The second component was the database information

    analysis, weighting, and comparison to pre-determined intersections in town using the preferred

    modeling technique. This resulted in the final deliverable which is a comprehensive prioritization

    list of freight infrastructure projects in Anchorage.

    In order to suggest an appropriate prioritization tool and a comprehensive survey

    instrument to the committee, an in-depth literature search and best practices from other cities will

    be investigated. Multiple systematic prioritization techniques were analyzed in this project and a

    presentation on the preferred process was given in December 2009.

  • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

    We would like to express appreciation to Dr. Jang Ra, who has continually and

    convincingly conveyed a spirit of adventure in regard to freight movement research. Without his

    leadership and persistent help, this paper would not have been possible.

    We would also like to thank the Freight Advisory Committee members for their funding

    support and project guidance.

    Aves

    Aves Thompson, Chair, Alaska Trucking Association

    David Blazejewski, Alaska Railroad

    Mike Blewett, Fred Meyers

    Jimmy Doyle, Weaver Brothers Trucking

    Laura Edwards, ADOT Division of Measurement Standards & Commercial Vehicle

    Enforcement

    Stuart Greydanus, Port of Anchorage

    Jack Jones, ADOT Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport

    Dave Nieber, FedEx

    Dr. Jang Ra, University of Alaska, Anchorage

    Ayron Spells, UPS

    Mike Thrasher, Totem Ocean Trailer Express

    Special thanks to AMATS coordinators Teresa Brewer and Craig Lyons who have been

    instrumental in the coordination, grant application, and fact finding particulars for this project.

  • INTRODUCTION

    Background

    Anchorage’s transportation system is critical for the movement of people and goods

    throughout our state, region, and city; support our economy; and helps shape our community

    (AMATS, 2004). Daily, over 24,000 tons of essential freight moves on Alaska roads, carrying

    medical supplies, food, clothing, and household necessities. Over 94% of all Alaskan

    communities depend exclusively on trucking to supply their goods; this overwhelming reliance

    on freight needs to be acknowledged when infrastructure decisions are made (AMATS

    Committee, 2005, revised 2007).

    Needs

    Given the importance of freight mobility, the motivation for this project is to identify and

    rank the freight movement problem areas in the Anchorage region. As the Freight Advisory

    Committee (FAC) is an advisory group to the AMATS Policy Committee, it is vital that the FAC

    send firm and well researched project suggestions to the Policy Committee for approval. By

    understanding the local freight mobility issues along with having a systematic method to

    prioritize projects, future FAC recommendations will be increasingly appreciated and will have

    an improved opportunity to be included in long-term planning documents. Transportation

    decision making experts Kumares Sinha and Samuel Labi simplify this by saying

    “Transportation programming is typically accomplished using tools such as ranking prioritization

  • and optimization: the goal typically is to select the project types, locations, and timings such that

    some network-level utility is maximized within a given budget.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 2)

    Procedures and Scope of Work

    The Freight Movement Study will follow the standard Project Management Body of

    Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) processes. These include initiation, planning, execution,

    monitoring and controlling, and project closeout.

    The scope of work consists of the following items:

    Phase I

    Phase I (June – October 2009)

    Research the background problem

    Provide project proposal with budget assumptions and contract for services to

    AMATS for project funding.

    Phase II (October – December 2009)

    Research of existing literature, stakeholder surveys, and comparison to similar

    sized cities to define baseline requirements.

    Investigate multiple types of prioritization models such as Analytic Hierarchy

    Process (AHP), Weighted Ranking, and Delphi to determine which best fits the

    needs of the FAC group.

    Development of appropriate model given the subjective and objective inputs

    received during the survey and baseline research.

    Survey / interview stakeholders to verify problem areas and understand how

    projects should be weighted and prioritized.

  • Pilot study modeling of pre-determined problem intersections within the

    Municipality.

    Phase III (January – May 2010)

    Finalize the survey; must receive FAC approval;

    Conduct the survey process and input results into database;

    Design the ranking system model;

    Design the website layout;

    Implement ranking system model to website;

    Test run the ranking system model on website through a series of actions under

    simulated conditions to verify reliability and suitability to task; and

    Generate the comprehensive prioritization list.

    Solution Approach

    This study will consist of multiple deliverable modules which progressively feed into one

    another.

    The first deliverable is a database which will be constructed based on:

    Subjective criteria obtained in a survey to local freight drivers, and

    Objective criteria such as freight traffic volumes and freight accident data.

    The database information will then be analyzed, weighted, and compared to

    predetermined intersections in town using the preferred modeling technique. This will result in a

    comprehensive prioritization list of freight infrastructure projects in Anchorage. Future projects

    will take this study and develop it into an automated mapping application.

  • Exhibit 1: Project flowchart

    Report Structure

    This report will demonstrate an extensive literature search and then discuss how the

    research associates incorporated previously published work to create stakeholder surveys. The

    report will then detail different types of decision making techniques along with their inputs and

    explain how the model development for this project was prepared. Given the approved model,

    future research associates will develop a formal prioritization list for the FAC and continue the

    discussion on the interactive automated mapping application.

  • DATA AND MODEL

    Statement of Problem

    The FAC does not currently have an objective process to prioritize the preferred freight

    projects within Anchorage. As author Keeney asserts, the process by which the decision is made

    will likely be just as important as the decision itself if there are multiple competing interests.

    Given the broad range of potential stakeholders and categories of impact, there are numerous

    items to consider when making the prioritization list. The following table was developed by

    Sinha and Labi (2007) as an illustration to aid in understanding of those complexities.

    Exhibit 5: Impact Categories and Types (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 7)

    Categories of Impact Impact Types

    Technical Facility condition

    Travel time

    Vehicle operating cost

    Accessibility, mobility, and congestion

    Safety

    Intermodal movement efficiency

    Land-use patterns

    Risk and vulnerability

    Environmental Air quality

  • Water resources

    Noise

    Wetlands and ecology

    Aesthetics

    Economic efficiency Initial costs

    Life-cycle costs and benefits

    Benefit-cost ratio

    Net present value

    Economic development Employment

    Number of business establishments

    Gross domestic product

    Regional economy

    International trade

    Legal Tort liability exposure

    Sociocultural Quality of life

    Due to so many possible impacts into the prioritization list, it should be noted this paper

    will deal with travel time, congestion, and safety as inputs into the model. If the other impact

    types were included into this research, the scope would grow to an unmanageable size and

    magnitude. In order to find appropriate solutions for each of these inputs both subjective and

    objective criteria were analyzed.

  • Subjective inputs analyzed

    Stakeholders

    According to the Project Management Institute (PMI), stakeholders may have a positive

    or negative influence on a project. The PMI PMBOK Guide goes on to explain that “stakeholders

    have varying levels of responsibility and authority when participating on a project. This level of

    responsibility and authority can change over the course of the project’s life cycle.” (Project

    Management Institute, 2004, p. 25) While there are numerous ways to define stakeholders,

    author Mersino has the most complete picture when he states “Project stakeholders are

    individuals and organizations that are actively involved in the project, or whose interest may be

    affected as a result of project execution or project completion.” (Mersino, 2007, p. 117)

    For the Freight Movement Project, it was determined that the key stakeholders would

    be Anchorage freight companies and their truck drivers along with the FAC. It is assumed that

    both these groups would benefit from the prioritization list deliverable.

    Given that, these stakeholders were viewed as positive stakeholders. “Positive stakeholders feel

    they benefit by the success of your project, or at least have the potential to benefit from it.”

    (Dobson, 2003, p. 107) Stakeholders that have been identified include:

    • Alaska Trucking Association

    • Private Freight companies

    • Alaska Railroad

    • Anchorage International Airport

    • Port of Anchorage

    • AMATS Policy Committee

  • • AMATS FAC Committee

    • UAA Research Associates

    Other Stakeholders Freight Industry AMATS Research Associates  

    Stakeholder Analysis: Power Influence Matrix

    The following matrix shows the power level and influence of each of the previously

    identified stakeholder groups.

    Exhibit 6: Stakeholder Matrix

    Low Interest

    High Interest

    High Power

    Key Influencers

    Freight Truck Drivers

    Decision Supporters

    AMATS Policy Committee

    Freight Advisory Committee

    Low Power

    Low Threats

    Local Community Councils

    Anchorage Railroad

    Anchorage International Airport

    Keep Informed

    UAA Research Associates

    Port of Anchorage

    Alaska Trucking Association

    Stakeholder Survey

  • The following questions were asked during the stakeholder survey. The reasoning is explained as

    to why those questions were developed.

    What type of firm do you work for?

    The goal of any survey is to have the appropriate group of stakeholders answering the

    questions. By asking the type of firm the stakeholder is involved with, it gives the research

    associates a reassurance that the majority of the survey results from the freight industry. The

    primary stakeholder group for this survey is freight truck drivers within the Municipality of

    Anchorage.

    What kinds of transportation services does your company provide?

    This question will assist the research associates with making sure the answers are coming

    from ground freight transportation companies, primarily those that are common carrier.

    What kinds of transportation services does your company provide?

    This question was designed to specify the type of vehicle the company is utilizing. This

    information will help the research associates when the accident data is analyzed. If there are

    numerous companies using one particular type of vehicle and having increased issues at one

    intersection, then the FAC could instigate detailed conversations with that company in order to

    identify the root cause.

    Are you a Freight Driver in Your Company?

    This question was asked in order to go to a yes/no node in the survey. If the answer was

    “yes” then stakeholders were asked questions relating to length of driving service and vehicle

    size. If the survey answer was “no” then the stakeholder was taken directly to the intersection

    questions of the survey.

  • Please rate the following Anchorage intersections on the level of importance to your

    daily freight driving.

    Given a random order of pre-identified intersections in Anchorage, all stakeholders were

    asked if these pre-determined intersections were:

    • Problem Area

    • Not A Problem Area

    • Not Sure

    Which of the following conditions present problems at the above listed intersections?

    The stakeholders were then asked to rate the top three conditions for problem areas they

    identified. These problem areas and problem conditions were not correlated on a one-to-one

    basis; the research associates thought that would be out of scope. However the data from the

    problem condition question will be used as background information in the prioritization list

    background.

    A copy of the draft survey which was sent to the FAC for review and approval is in the

    Appendix.

    Summary of survey results

    We’ve received 52 responses by March 24, 2010. 42.3% of responders said that their

    company provides the transportation service of truckload. 52.2% of responders are not a freight

    driver. And, 29.5% of responders drive single-trailer tractor. The key results from the survey is

    summarized in the following table:

  • Area Problem? Type of problem Ocean Dock Road and Terminal Road intersection 34.1% road congestion (54.2%) Industrial Area circulation and access area 34.2% turning radius (36.8%) School Bus storage area 13.9% road congestion (36.8%) 3rd Avenue and Ingra/Gambell area 54.3% road congestion (50.0%) Ocean Dock alignment near the Port entrance 31.4% road congestion (84.6%) 3rd Avenue: Post Road and Reeve Blvd 45.5% road congestion (50.0% Lake Otis Parkway and Tudor Road 71.9% road congestion (84.6%) Dowling Road: New Seward Hwy to Lake Otis Pkwy 51.6% turning radius (77.8%) International Airport Road and Postmark Drive 3.2% merge lanes (50.0% Ocean Dock Railroad Crossings 43.3% road congestion and poor

    signage (43.8%) C Street and 5th/6th Avenue Intersection 43.3% road congestion (72.2%) Lake Otis Parkway: Debarr Road to Northern Lights Blvd 40.0% road congestion (53.3%) West Northern Lights Blvd and Wisconsin Street intersection 16.7% road congestion (37.5%) C Street/Potter/64th Ave intersections 33.3% road congestion (50.0%) North C Street and Ocean Dock road Intersection (i.e. Multiple RR Crossings)

    40.0% road congestion (41.7%)

    Ocean Dock road access and crossing from Port to Terminal Road 26.7% road congestion (55.6%) C Street and International Airport Road intersection 17.2% road congestion (50.0%) New Seward Hwy and O’Malley Interchange 41.4% turning radius (53.3%) C Street: Tudor Road to 36th Avenue Northbound 31.0% road congestion and

    turning radius (50.0%) Postmark Drive and Point Woronzof/West Northern Lights Blvd Intersection

    10.3% road congestion (40.0%)

    The result shows that most problem types are road congestion and turning radius. Some of the

    candidate areas, e.g. Lake Otis Parkway and Tudor Road, need more attention than other areas.

    We expected that most respondents to be truck drivers but the result shows that that’s not the

    case. The respondents are not necessarily truck drivers.

    The survey provides many different information but our ranking model uses one of them,

    which is the percentage of the stakeholders who think the area is a problem as the subjective

    input.

    Objective inputs analyzed

  • In any type of analysis, an objective approach is needed. For the freight movement study,

    the objective criteria entered into the analysis model are related to safety and vehicle capacity.

    Crash data

    This study uses the crash data obtained from Matthew M Matta, Research Analyst II of

    Alaska DOT on Oct. 23, 2009. The data include truck-related crash records in Anchorage from

    2005 to 2009. 2009 data is incomplete due to the timing of the data collection. All the data for

    these years are used for the analysis.

    For each candidate area, crashes are counted. Each count is divided by the maximum

    number of crash count among the candidate areas to make the scale comparable to the subjective

    inputs.

    Traffic volumes

    This study uses the traffic volume data from Annual Traffic Volume Report 2006-2007-

    2008 by Alaska State DOT & PF. Only 2008 data is used to reflect the latest status of each traffic

    area.

    For each candidate area, traffic volume data is collected. Each traffic volume is divided

    by the maximum traffic volume among the candidate areas to make the scale comparable to the

    subjective inputs.

    Model Analysis

    Given so many potential decision making models that were discovered in the literature

    search, our analysis to choose the best fit was refined to those that transportation experts Sinah

    and Labi suggest as the most appropriate for systematic evaluations. Once the analysis was

  • complete, the research associates came to the unanimous decision that AHP would be the most

    logical and best suited model for developing future freight mobility prioritization lists. “A

    decision-making mechanism based on multiple criteria can:

    1) help structure an agency’s decision making process in a clear, rational, well-defined,

    documentable, comprehensive, and defensible manner; and

    2) help the agency to carry out “what-if” analyses and to investigate trade-offs between

    performance criteria.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 449)

    The following excerpts discuss the specific models that were analyzed.

    Delphi Technique

    “Delphi technique is a widely used group decision-making tool that aggregated the

    perspectives from individual experts for consensus building and ultimately for a holistic final

    assessment. In this technique, the results from the first set of questionnaire surveys are analyzed

    and summarized, and the summary statistics are presented to the respondents. The respondents

    review their original individual responses relative to the summary statistics and make any needed

    adjustments to the weights they assigned originally. This cycle of iterations continues until there

    is no change in the scores. The final scores are then averaged to yield the relative weights. In

    most cases, a consensus emerges after two iterations.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 451)

    Direct Weighting Method

    “In the direct weighting method, decision makers assign numerical weight values

    directly to performance criteria. Two approaches are: 1.) Point allocation (a number of points are

    allocated among the performance criteria in proportion to their important.) 2.) Ranking (involves

    a simple ordering of performance criteria by decreasing importance as perceived by the decision

    makers.) Of these two methods, point allocation is typically preferred because it yields a cardinal

  • rather than an ordinal scale of importance. The point allocation approach is particularly useful

    when there are a large number of criteria. Both of these methods are generally easy to implement

    and are useful for initial estimation of relative weights.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 450)

    Equal Weighting Approach

    “The equal weighing approach, which assigns the same weight to all performance

    criteria, is simple and easy to implement. It has been the common practice at many agencies to

    simply sum up agency and user cost to obtain a single cost value upon which a decision is

    made.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 450)

    Gamble Method

    “The gamble method assigns a weight for one performance criterion at a time by asking

    survey respondents to compare their preference for a guaranteed outcome against an outcome

    that is not guaranteed. This method involves the following steps: Carry out an initial and

    tentative ranking of performance criteria in order of decreasing importance. Set the first criterion

    at its most desirable level and all other criteria at their least desirable levels. Compare between

    the following two outcomes:

    • Sure thing

    • Gamble

    Step 2 is repeated for all other criteria until the weights have been determined for all criteria.

    The gamble method is particularly useful for determining relative weights of performance

    criteria in the outcome risk scenario. A disadvantage of this method is that it may be difficult to

    comprehend or administer.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 452)

  • Multicriteria Decision Making

    “A key step in multicriteria decision making is the explicit assignment of relative

    weights to each performance criterion to reflect its importance compared to other criteria. The

    first task in multiple criteria evaluation is to assess how decision makers attach relative levels of

    importance to criteria. The next task in multicriteria evaluation is scaling where each criterion is

    converted from its original dimension to one that is uniform and commensurate across all

    performance criteria.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 449)

    Regression-Based Observer-Derived Weighting

    “Regression-based Observer-Derived Weighting is based on unaided subjective

    evaluations of alternative actions and their overall impact, followed by analysis of the results

    using statistical regression to identify the implicit relative weights. For each transportation

    alternative, survey respondents, such as agency decision-making personnel or facility users, are

    requested to assign scores of overall “benefit” or “desirability” for a given combination of

    performance criteria that is accrued by a given transportation alternative. Using statistical

    regression, a functional relationship is then established on the basis of each respondent’s overall

    desirability for each alternative and the scores assigned to individual criteria.” (Sinha & Labi,

    2007, p. 450)

    Value Swinging Method

    “The value swinging method involved the following steps:

    • Consider a hypothetical situation where performance criteria are all at their worst

    values.

  • • Determine the criterion for which it is most preferred to “swing” from its worst value to

    its best value, all other criteria remaining at the worst values. Repeat steps 1 and 2 for all

    criteria. Assign to the most important criterion, the highest weight in a selected weighting

    range, and then assign weights to the remaining criteria in proportion to their rank of

    importance.” (Sinha & Labi, 2007, p. 455)

    Anchorage Freight Mobility Study Model Development

    This study adopted the Direct Weighting Method to handle multi-criteria in a simple and

    easy but flexible way. The study use both subjective and objective data for the prioritization. For

    subjective data, the percentage the respondents perceive it is a problem area was used as a

    subjective rating for each candidate problem area. For objective data, crash data and traffic

    volume were used. The study used relative frequency of truck crash at each candidate problem

    area as compared with the highest frequency among them as an objective data. The study also

    used relative volume of traffic at each candidate problem area as compared with the highest

    traffic volume among them. The combination of weights assigned to the three types of rating can

    differ by stakeholders. So, our model allows stakeholders to control the weight assignment.

    Suppose that the weight for the crash data is wA, the weight for the survey result is wB, and the

    weight for the traffic volume is wC.

    We developed an interactive spreadsheet model for the prioritization. If the crash data is

    updated, it is reflected to the ‘count of truck crash’ and the ranking is updated automatically. The

    weights for the three inputs for ranking are controlled using scroll bars and the ranking is

    updated immediately in the spreadsheet model.

  • Figure: Snapshot of ranking model

    If the stakeholder thinks that three ratings are equally important, the weights can be

    assigned as

    wA = 1/3, wB = 1/3, wC = 1/3.

    Then, the list of problem areas sorted by the ranking is generated as

    Ranking Area 1 Dowling Road: New Seward Hwy to Lake Otis Pkwy 2 Lake Otis Parkway and Tudor Road 3 C Street and 5th/6th Avenue Intersections 4 C Street: Tudor Road to 36th Avenue Northbound 5 C Street/Potter/64th Ave intersections 6 New Seward Hwy and O'Malley Interchange 7 C Street and International Airport Road intersection 8 Lake Otis Parkway: Debarr Road to Northern Lights Blvd 9 Ocean Dock Road and Terminal Road Intersection 10 3rd Avenue and Ingra/Gambell area 11 3rd Avenue: Post Road and Reeve Blvd 12 West Northern Lights Blvd and Wisconsin Street intersection 13 North C Street and Ocean Dock Road Intersection i.e. Multiple RR Crossings 14 International Airport Road and Postmark Drive

  • 15 Industrial Area circulation and access area 16 Ocean Dock Railroad Crossings 17 Ocean Dock alignment near the Port entrance 18 School Bus storage area 19 Ocean Dock Road access and crossing from Port to Terminal Road 20 Postmark Drive and Point Woronzof/West Northern Lights Blvd Intersection

    If the stakeholder thinks the survey result is more important than the others, the weights

    can be assigned as

    wA = 0.25, wB = 0.5, wC = 0.25.

    Then, the list of problem areas sorted by the ranking is generated as

    Ranking Area 1 Lake Otis Parkway and Tudor Road 2 Dowling Road: New Seward Hwy to Lake Otis Pkwy 3 C Street and 5th/6th Avenue Intersections 4 C Street: Tudor Road to 36th Avenue Northbound 5 C Street/Potter/64th Ave intersections 6 New Seward Hwy and O'Malley Interchange 7 3rd Avenue and Ingra/Gambell area 8 Lake Otis Parkway: Debarr Road to Northern Lights Blvd 9 Ocean Dock Road and Terminal Road Intersection 10 C Street and International Airport Road intersection 11 3rd Avenue: Post Road and Reeve Blvd 12 North C Street and Ocean Dock Road Intersection i.e. Multiple RR Crossings 13 Ocean Dock Railroad Crossings 14 Industrial Area circulation and access area 15 West Northern Lights Blvd and Wisconsin Street intersection 16 Ocean Dock alignment near the Port entrance 17 International Airport Road and Postmark Drive 18 Ocean Dock Road access and crossing from Port to Terminal Road 19 School Bus storage area 20 Postmark Drive and Point Woronzof/West Northern Lights Blvd Intersection

    If the stakeholder thinks the crash data is more important than the others, the weights can

    be assigned as

    wA = 0.5, wB = 0.25, wC = 0.25.

  • Then, the list of problem areas sorted by the ranking is generated as

    Ranking Area 1 Dowling Road: New Seward Hwy to Lake Otis Pkwy 2 C Street and 5th/6th Avenue Intersections 3 C Street: Tudor Road to 36th Avenue Northbound 4 C Street/Potter/64th Ave intersections 5 Lake Otis Parkway and Tudor Road 6 New Seward Hwy and O'Malley Interchange 7 Ocean Dock Road and Terminal Road Intersection 8 C Street and International Airport Road intersection 9 Lake Otis Parkway: Debarr Road to Northern Lights Blvd 10 3rd Avenue and Ingra/Gambell area 11 International Airport Road and Postmark Drive 12 North C Street and Ocean Dock Road Intersection i.e. Multiple RR Crossings 13 3rd Avenue: Post Road and Reeve Blvd 14 Industrial Area circulation and access area 15 West Northern Lights Blvd and Wisconsin Street intersection 16 Ocean Dock Railroad Crossings 17 School Bus storage area 18 Ocean Dock alignment near the Port entrance 19 Ocean Dock Road access and crossing from Port to Terminal Road 20 Postmark Drive and Point Woronzof/West Northern Lights Blvd Intersection

    If the stakeholder thinks the traffic volume is more important than the others, the weights can be

    assigned as

    wA = 0.25, wB = 0.25, wC = 0.5.

    Then, the list of problem areas sorted by the ranking is generated as

    Ranking Area 1 Lake Otis Parkway and Tudor Road 2 Dowling Road: New Seward Hwy to Lake Otis Pkwy 3 C Street: Tudor Road to 36th Avenue Northbound 4 C Street and 5th/6th Avenue Intersections 5 C Street/Potter/64th Ave intersections 6 New Seward Hwy and O'Malley Interchange 7 C Street and International Airport Road intersection 8 Lake Otis Parkway: Debarr Road to Northern Lights Blvd 9 3rd Avenue and Ingra/Gambell area 10 Ocean Dock Road and Terminal Road Intersection 11 West Northern Lights Blvd and Wisconsin Street intersection 12 3rd Avenue: Post Road and Reeve Blvd 13 International Airport Road and Postmark Drive 14 North C Street and Ocean Dock Road Intersection i.e. Multiple RR Crossings

  • 15 School Bus storage area 16 Industrial Area circulation and access area 17 Ocean Dock Railroad Crossings 18 Ocean Dock alignment near the Port entrance 19 Ocean Dock Road access and crossing from Port to Terminal Road 20 Postmark Drive and Point Woronzof/West Northern Lights Blvd Intersection

    As seen in the different lists, different weighting gives different ranking. If people’s

    perception or traffic volume is more important, Lake Otis Parkway and Tudor Road is top

    ranked. If crash frequency is more important or they are equally important, Dowling Road: New

    Seward Hwy to Lake Otis Pkwy is top ranked.

    Displaying prioritization on the web

    After developing the ranking model, we designed a website that displays the ranking of

    the problem areas on the map. The URL of the website is

    http://soe.uaa.alaska.edu/espm/FMR/FRM%20index.html. The website shows the list of

    candidate areas for the prioritization. The website shows the rankings of problem areas using 4

    different combinations of weights.

    Figure: Snapshot of website

  • If three ratings are equally important, the weights can be assigned as wA = 1/3, wB = 1/3,

    wC = 1/3

    Figure: Snapshot of rankings on the map when wA = 1/3, wB = 1/3, and wC = 1/3.

  • If the stakeholder thinks the survey result is more important than the others, the weights

    can be assigned as wA = 0.25, wB = 0.5, wC = 0.25.

    Figure: Snapshot of rankings on the map when wA = 0.25, wB = 0.5, wC = 0.25

  • If the stakeholder thinks the crash data is more important than the others, the weights can

    be assigned as wA = 0.5, wB = 0.25, wC = 0.25.

    Figure: snapshot of rankings on the map when wA = 0.5, wB = 0.25, wC = 0.25

  • If the stakeholder thinks the traffic volume is more important than the others, the weights

    can be assigned as wA = 0.25, wB = 0.25, wC = 0.5.

    Figure: snapshot of rankings on the map when wA = 0.25, wB = 0.25, wC = 0.5

  • Currently, the website does not provide interactive ranking by changing the weight

    combination. In the later version of the website, the rankings of the problem areas on the map

    will be updated immediately by any change in the weight or other inputs.

  • Conclusion

    With the limited inputs, we developed the ranking model for future freight infrastructure

    projects. The website shows some examples of the prioritization using the model. With more

    improvement, the website will give much more valuable information to the stakeholders.

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