impacts of natural disasters on water, waste-water, and water-distribution systems walter hays,...
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IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS
ONWATER, WASTE-WATER,
AND WATER-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
2012: 7 BILLION PEOPLE DEPEND ON THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER
2012: 7 BILLION PEOPLE DEPEND ON THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER
Nubia_Group
IN 2020, AS NOW, THE GLOBAL WATER SUPPLY …
• Should be available, without interruption, in sufficient QUANTITY to meet the primary needs of the people
• Should be of good QUALITY (i.e., CLEAN) to sustain life
KEY FACTORS
WATER, WASTE- WATER, AND WATER DISTRUBUTION SYSTEMS
WATER, WASTE- WATER, AND WATER DISTRUBUTION SYSTEMS
• Have POINT-SENSITIVE and AREA-SENSITIVE components, …
• Have varying vulnerabilities in their exposure to the TIME – and SPACE- DEPENDENT potential disaster agents of natural hazards.
WATER, WASTE-WATER, AND WATER-DISTRUBUTION SYSTEMS
• Above-ground siting makes water- and waste-water systems more vulnerable to earthquake ground shaking; inundation during, tsunamis, floods, and severe windstorms; and permanent deformation during landslides.
WATER, WASTE- WATER, AND WATER DISTRUBUTION SYSTEMS
• Below-ground siting makes water distribution systems more nvulnerable to permanent deformation caused by earthquake-induced liquefaction.
WATER, WASTE- WATER, AND WATER DISTRUBUTION SYSTEMS
• Vulnerability is a function of materials, age, maintenance, and the system’s exposure as a site-specific, or a spatially- distributed above-or-below-ground system.
OVERVIEW OF RISKOVERVIEW OF RISK
WATER, WASTE-WATER, AND WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS FACE
DIFFERENT RISKS FROM DIFFERENT NATURAL HAZARDS
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
WATER, WASTE WATER, WASTE WATER, AD WATER, AD DUSTRIBION DUSTRIBION
SYSTEMSSYSTEMS
WATER, WASTE WATER, WASTE WATER, AD WATER, AD DUSTRIBION DUSTRIBION
SYSTEMSSYSTEMSDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•NATURAL HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY
RESILIENT SYSTEMSRESILIENT SYSTEMS
DAMAGE; DAMAGE; INJURIESINJURIESDAMAGE; DAMAGE; INJURIESINJURIES
ELEMENTS OF ELEMENTS OF UNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISK
ELEMENTS OF ELEMENTS OF UNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISK
FAILURE; FAILURE; DEATHSDEATHS
FAILURE; FAILURE; DEATHSDEATHS
LOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTIONLOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION
ECONOMICECONOMIC
LOSSLOSS
ECONOMICECONOMIC
LOSSLOSS
RISKRISKRISKRISK
RISK MODELING
RISK = NAT. HAZARD x EXPOSURE
NOTE: X = CONVOLUTION
SPECIFIC HAZARD: EXPOSURE: PEOPLE
BUILDING STOCK
WATER SYSTEMS
GOVERNMENT & BUSINESSES
IndividualModeled Events
Eve
nt
Pro
bab
ili t
y
Dollars of Loss
1%
1/100 Threshold Event
IndividualModeled Events
1% Tail of the Distribution
INSURERS MODEL THE RISK DISTRIBUTION FOR ALL EXPOSURES AND ALL EVENTS
Total Area Under Curve = EAL for Entire Portfolio of Risks
Layers & Slices = Retentions andTransferred Amounts
“DISASTER RISK LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER RISK LABORATORIES”
CONSIDER ALL PAST LOCAL-SCALE AND REGIONAL-SCALE EVENTS AS DISASTER RISK LABORATORIES
EARTHQUAKES
An Earthquake Can Cause A Disaster (Japan 2011)
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING, LIQUE-FACTION
& LANDSLIDES)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN, AND ROUTE
TSUNAMI IMPACTS
POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
TSUNAMIS
A TSUNAMI CAN CAUSE A DISASTER(Thailand 2004)
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES
TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS
INUNDATION
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
FLOODS
A FLOOD CAN CAUSE A DISASTER (China 2007)
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
FLOODSFLOODS
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGED BY WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER
CAUSES OF RISK
CAUSES OF RISK
DISASTER LABORATORIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
A SEVERE WINDSTORM CAN CAUSE A DISASTER
WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
INUNDATION AND MUDFLOWS
STORM SURGE
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
SITING PROBLEMS
FLYING DEBRIS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
•SEVERE WINDSTORMS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
SEVERE WINDSTORM SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTIONRISK REDUCTION
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY
FOUR PILLARS OF FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE
Wind profileWind profile
Storm Hazards:Storm Hazards:-Wind pressure-Surge-Rain-Flood-Waves-Salt water-Missiles-Tornadoes
OceanOceanOceanOcean
Gradient WindGradient Wind
LANDSLIDES
A MAJOR LANDSLIDE CAN CAUSE A DISASTER
SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES
LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS
SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING
GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
DISASTER LABORATORIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
DISASTER RESILEINCEA GLOBAL GOAL FOR WATER-,
WASTE-WATER, AND WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS:
DISASTER RESILEINCEA GLOBAL GOAL FOR WATER-,
WASTE-WATER, AND WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS:
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN---
WATER-, WASTE-WATER, AND WATER-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
ARE LEFT …
UN—PROTECTEDAGAINST THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS
DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
RISK MODELING
• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
• EVENTEVENT
POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
• COSTCOST
• BENEFITBENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCETOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
““WATER WATER SYSTEMS”SYSTEMS”
““WATER WATER SYSTEMS”SYSTEMS” EXPECTED EXPECTED
LOSSLOSS
EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS
EARTHQUAKES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING )
IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE
POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM
FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS (I.E., BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE
STANDARDS)
MEAN 1) INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING2) COLLAPSE OF BUILDINGS AND LOSS OF FUNCTION OF LIFELINES
SICHUAN, CHINA: BUILDINGS NEED PROTECTION IN AN EARTHQUAKE
HAITI: BUILDINGS NEED PROTECTION IN AN EARTHQUAKE
TURKEY: BUILDINGS NEED PROTECTION IN AN EARTHQUAKE
TURKEY: BUILDINGS NEED PROTECTION IN AN EARTHQUAKE
CHINA: DAMS NEED PROTECTION IN AN EARTHQUAKE
JAPAN: NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NEED PROTECION IN AN EARTHQUAKE
UNDERGROUND UTILITIES NEED PROTECTION IN AN EARTHQUAKEUNDERGROUND UTILITIES NEED
PROTECTION IN AN EARTHQUAKE
• A UTILITY CORRIDOR IS VULNERABLE TO LOSS OF FUNCTION WHEN ROUTED THROUGH SOILS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIQUEFACTION.
• A UTILITY CORRIDOR IS VULNERABLE TO LOSS OF FUNCTION WHEN ROUTED THROUGH SOILS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIQUEFACTION.