lessons learned from past notable disasters peru part 4: volcanoes walter hays, global alliance for...

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

PERUPART 4: VOLCANOES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANOES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric-mantle collision-zone interactions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

VOLCANOES are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of

movement along faults located in subduction zones

or at hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and

Iceland).

VOLCANOES are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of

movement along faults located in subduction zones

or at hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and

Iceland).

VOLCANOES

• Peru is located in the heart of the Andean mountain chain, which is an unbroken series of high-mountain peaks that stretch southward from Columbia to Argentina.

VOLCANOES

• Peru has 16 of the “Ring of fire” volcanoes; the most famous being: El Misti volcano, Coropuna volcano, Chachani volcano, Sabancaya volcano, and Ubinas volcano.

• At present, Sabancaya and Ubinas are the most active volcanoes in Peru, producing significant eruptions in 1988-1994 and 2006-2008.

VOLCANOES

• The South American plate exhibits some of the best examples of continental-margin magmatism found anywhere in the world.

SOUTH AMERICAN MOUNTAIN BUILDING

SOUTH AMERICAN VULCANISM

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, ,..) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the community LOSES the functions of its buildings and infrastructure at a time when they are needed most.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCETOWARDS VOLCANO

DISASTER RESILIENCE

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISKRISK

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISKRISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

PERU’S PERU’S COMMUINITIESCOMMUINITIES

PERU’S PERU’S COMMUINITIESCOMMUINITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME

• ASH AND TEPHRA

• LATERAL BLAST

• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS

• LAHARS

• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)

• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

FLYING DEBRIS

VOLCANIC ASH

LAVA FLOWS

LAHARS

TOXIC GASES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVACUATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LAST ERUPTIONS OF PERU’S NOTABLE

VOLCANOES

COROPUNA: 11,000 YEARS AGO

CHACHANI: 11,000 YEARS AGO

EL MISTI: 1784

UBINAS:2006-2008

SABANCAYA: 1988-1994; 2013

PERU’S COROPUNA

PERU’S CHACHANI AND EL MISTI

PERU’S EL MISTI: ASLEEP, BUT A THREAT

PERU’S EL MISTI: APRIL 2007

Ubinas, which had its last significant eruption in 2008,

is Peru’s most active volcano.

PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO: 2006

EVACUATION

• Nearby towns were evacuated during the 2006 eruptions, which killed livestock and caused significant respiratory and eye problems for surrounding residents

PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO

PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO

PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO

LOCATION OF UBINAS VOLCANO

AREQUIPA: AT RISK

AREQUIPA: AT RISK

PERU’S SABANCAYA

Sabancaya is an active 5,976-metre (19,606 ft)

stratovolcano in the Andes of southern Peru, about 100

km (62 mi) northwest of Arequipa.

THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY

• In July 1986, after over 200 years of dormancy, satellites detected an increase in thermal emission, and intense volcanic activity resumed in December.

THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)

• Several eruptive cycles occurred over the next two years (1987-1988), producing a lava dome in the crater.

THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)

• The most sustained period of activity began with explosive eruptions (VEI 3) on May 28, 1990, and continued for over eight years.

THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)

• The eruptive cycle produced more than 25 million cubic meters of lava flows and tephra during that period.

THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)

• At the height of the activity in 1994, eruptions producing large ash clouds occurred every two hours.

THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued)

• A small eruption occurred on February 23, 2013.

A SNAPSHOT IN TIME OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY: AUGUST 2009

THE MOST COMMON FLAWS EXPOSED BY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

• UN—PREPARED FOR WHAT HAPPENED

• UN---WARNED; NO EVACUATION• UN---ABLE TO RESPOND

EFFECTIVELY; LIVES LOST

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNITIES

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNITIES

• PURPOSE

• PROTECTION

• CONTROL

• AVIATION SAFETY

• PURPOSE

• PROTECTION

• CONTROL

• AVIATION SAFETY

• TECHNIQUE

• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH

• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS

• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

• TECHNIQUE

• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH

• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS

• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• HISTORIC DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO

• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS

• HISTORIC DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO

• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS

UBINAS VOLCANO HAZARD ZONE MAP

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES

.

SATTELITE MONITORING CAN PROVIDE EARLY WARNING

.

PERU’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLEPERU’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE

• SO, INCLUDE THE BEST POSSIBLE ”WHAT IF” PLANS ABOUT THE NEXT MOST LIKELY ERUPTION