amárach economic recovery index january 2013
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1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing January 2013
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
Emotional Bounce
2013 has got off to a good start – or at
least a ‘less bad’ one (and much better
than last year).
A number of the indicators we track have
picked up – including willingness to
spend (highest since June 2010), and
willingness to borrow (highest since May
2012).
Our overall ERI index is up from 15.4 in
January 2012 to 20.9 in January 2013,
again indicating some improvement in
sentiment.
All in all, our research points to the
continued resilience of the Irish
consumer (a theme picked up in the
World Economic Forum’s recent report)
– suggesting that we are ‘recovery-
ready’ as and when it finally happens…
WEF Global Risk Report 2013: http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2013-eighth-edition
3 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out three years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
January 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 14th to 18th January 2013 inclusive.
4 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Dec’12: 49% Jan’13: 45%
Dec’12: 28% Jan’13: 30%
Dec’12: 20% Jan’13: 21%
Dec’12: 3% Jan’13: 3%
Dec’12: 0% Jan’13: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
Our ERI Index picked up in January 2013, with fewer than half feeling the economic situation in
Ireland is getting worse:
5 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The weakening we saw in the second half of 2012 has finally reversed:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09 July Sept Nov Jan'10 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'11 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan '12 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'13
6 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 1
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
34%41%44%42%43%46%
48%41%43%
52%
41% 42%43%42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%
23%26%24%25%24%28%23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%
26%30%31%25%25%27%27%24%26%27%
32%
Ap
r '0
9Ju
nJu
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'10
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'11
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'12
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'13
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57%59%65%
58%60%62%55%
51%51%
61%
56% 54%52% 53%54%
55%
50%
46% 44%33%41%
48%44%
48%47%53%
47%48%48%47%49%42%39%
45%44%50%51%
47%43%45%47%46%48%
44%39%47%
Ap
r '0
9M
ay
Ju
nJu
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'10
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'11
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'12
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
No
vD
ec
Jan
'13
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
7 Economic Recovery Index
Recovery Outlook 2
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement:
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
48%48%51% 47%48%48%46%
45%45%50%
47%43%
47%44%
45%
47%46%
41% 41%32%34%39%37%36%39%40%
34%39%
34%38%38%
34%33%37%
41%40%42%38%36%38%39%
35%38%34%32%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'10
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'11
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'12
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'13
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
59%62%61% 60%61%60%56%
52%56%55%
53% 55%53%51%
50%
55%54%
53% 52%45%45%
49%45%47%48%50%
44%49%46%49%
45%45%43%46%49%48%50%45%45%43%46%
42%44%43%43%47%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'10
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'11
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'12
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
'13
Right now it seems the recession is affecting other people more than me: % agree strongly/slightly
8 Economic Recovery Index
Getting Through
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by gender, household income &
presence and age of children):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
January 2013 TOTAL Male Female Under
25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
AB
C1
C2
DE
Has
Child
ren
Weighted Sample 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 658 494
Strongly Agree 16% 9% 18% 14% 7% 11% 13% 13% 12% 13% 16%
Slightly Agree 26% 29% 29% 26% 24% 23% 33% 33% 22% 26% 26%
Neither/Nor 13% 10% 12% 9% 9% 11% 14% 11% 11% 11% 13%
Slightly Disagree 23% 24% 24% 27% 28% 20% 18% 23% 24% 22% 23%
Strongly Disagree 21% 25% 15% 21% 30% 31% 21% 19% 27% 25% 21%
9 Economic Recovery Index
% of Irish adults who agree with each statement: January 2011, 2012, 2013 & December 2012
22% 24% 22% 27%
Jan'11 Jan'12 Dec'12 Jan'13
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago
58% 61% 62% 64%
Jan'11 Jan'12 Dec'12 Jan'13
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
22% 24% 22% 27%
Jan'11 Jan'12 Dec'12 Jan'13
I am saving a lot more than before because of the
recession
22% 24% 22% 27%
Jan'11 Jan'12 Dec'12 Jan'13
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to
59% 57% 54% 57%
Jan'11 Jan'12 Dec'12 Jan'13
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
10 Economic Recovery Index
Purses & Wallets
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
January 2013 TOTAL Male Female Under
25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
AB
C1
C2
DE
Has
Child
ren
Weighted Sample 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 658 494
Strongly Agree 6% 9% 4% 14% 6% 3% 3% 6% 7% 6% 6%
Slightly Agree 15% 19% 12% 22% 18% 12% 10% 14% 15% 16% 15%
Neither/Nor 14% 16% 13% 18% 13% 9% 11% 19% 16% 13% 13%
Slightly Disagree 25% 20% 29% 19% 26% 26% 25% 25% 28% 21% 24%
Strongly Disagree 38% 35% 41% 27% 36% 48% 47% 35% 34% 42% 41%
11 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2013
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr'12
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-1
3
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
12 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2013
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9M
ay
Ju
nJu
lA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
0F
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJu
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
1F
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJu
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
2F
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJu
ne
Ju
lyA
ug
Se
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Ja
n'1
3
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
13 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, January 2013
January 2013 TOTAL Male Female Under
25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
AB
C1
C2
DE
Has
Child
ren
Weighted Sample 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 658 494
Enjoyment 49% 49% 49% 49% 46% 44% 49% 56% 55% 44% 48%
Happiness 51% 48% 53% 61% 53% 51% 46% 45% 52% 49% 49%
Stress 43% 41% 45% 48% 49% 51% 40% 31% 45% 41% 43%
Worry 43% 39% 48% 46% 44% 53% 44% 35% 42% 45% 43%
Anxiety 32% 33% 32% 36% 38% 32% 27% 28% 32% 32% 32%
Boredom 29% 27% 31% 51% 29% 32% 24% 16% 27% 31% 22%
Physical Pain 26% 25% 26% 29% 24% 22% 22% 30% 25% 26% 28%
Sadness 23% 19% 26% 31% 32% 20% 20% 14% 23% 22% 23%
Anger 19% 20% 18% 25% 20% 21% 14% 14% 18% 19% 19%
Fear 12% 10% 14% 18% 16% 11% 12% 7% 12% 13% 11%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: January 2013
14 Economic Recovery Index
ERI Resources
We have created a dedicated resource
on the Amárach website for those
interested in exploring our Economic
Recovery Index further.
It includes links to previous issues as
well as to a spreadsheet containing
monthly values for all the component
parts of the ERI – and more besides –
going right back to April 2009.
There is also a link to a special data
visualisation facility we have created in
partnership with Delphi Analytics.
Drivers & Drinking
About Amárach
Amárach Research is an independent market
research agency, providing a full range of
research services to our Irish and international
clients. Amárach specialises in turning
information into insight; and insight into foresight.
Amárach’s experienced team of 30 directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face and cati
surveys (through our call centre); as well as
qualitative research including focus groups, in-
depths and ethnographic studies. We also
delivers a world class field-only service to
universities and international agencies.
Over nearly 25 years, Amárach has pioneered
innovative research techniques and reported on
Irish social, lifestyle and tech trends since the
1980s. Amárach invests heavily in understanding
current Irish consumer and business trends, and
shares numerous, free reports and presentations
via our blog and slideshare sites, linked via our
main website: www.amarach.com
Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to
bounce forward to success:
Mark Nolan Managing Director
or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive
or Gerard O’Neill Chairman
for a confidential discussion about your needs and to
explore how we can help you succeed through world
class market research.
e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
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