US Airfare Trend Report

Week of March 31, 2015

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

Notes

• Massive activity this past week with the legacy carriers AA/US, DL, and UA. Another case of fare creep, as previously seen a couple months back.

• As we mentioned in our previous post on story.getflyr.com, most of these system-wide price increases are temporary, lasting mere days, before heading back down.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

Notes

• The fact that there are no changes in government taxes and fees, concentration among the legacy

carriers, and the low $2 median fare increase at the legacy carriers all serve as strong evidence for fare

creep.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

Notes

• For a few smaller airports covered only by the majors, fully 100% of their fares were affected.

On the fare drop side, you see larger airports here there is a higher diversity of airlines which

made the cities more immune from creep.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

Notes

• Unsurprisingly, a similar story emerges for destinations.

FLYR Inc.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

Notes

• For dedicated readers of this publication, you’ll immediately notice that the fare creep has seriously blunted the magnitude of the fare hikes this past week. This is due to the fact that we’re calculating the median average among fares that increased at all, for which the $2 fare creep dragged such values downward.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

• And similarly for destinations.

• Last week, we had a big increase for a single flight out of Jackson, MS. This week, its partner

flight just dropped by pretty much the same amount. This reinforces our findings that big

increases and big decreases BOTH occur with surprising frequency.

FLYR Inc.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

Notes

• You see here the extent of the fare creep on major routes.

• Note the $2 median increase values for many of the routes here.

• Generally, what happens in such occurrences is that one carrier will initiate the change, and others may follow suit. If there remains even a single major carrier that doesn’t follow suit, however, the airlines effectively lost pricing power, forcing them to roll back the changes rather quickly.

TRENDS AMONG 25 MAJOR

AIRPORT ROUTES

FLYR Inc.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

ABOUT OUR DATA

• We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing April 4, 2015

to May 8, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis.

• These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending March 28, 2015.

• Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.

FLYR Inc.

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Data cohort: Flights departing April 4, 2015 – May 8, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending March 28, 2015

ABOUT FLYR

FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning.

Our open airfare prediction beta is currently available at http://www.getFLYR.com.

We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports.

Steady Travels,

FLYR Research

© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved.

All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only.

Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc.

For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:

Andrew Jing

FLYR Inc.

andrew@FLYRLabs.com

89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080