flyr weekly 2015-03-02

US Airfare Trend Report

Week of March 2, 2015

FLYR Inc. fb.com/getflyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research

Data cohort: Flights departing March 7, 2015 – April 11, 2015 • Observation period: 7 days ending February 28, 2015

Notes •  The Fare Creep exercise from February has almost entirely dissipated. For more info,

Google: “What is Fare Creep?” – FLYR’s explanation at top. •  Notice how similar the profiles for most of the carriers are, especially among the legacy

carriers.



Notes •  Broadest fare hikes for this cohort of flights were seen from JetBlue and Virgin America, at 48% and

44%, respectively. They also saw some pretty significant magnitudes of change, at a median $39 for JetBlue and $50 for Virgin America.

•  Notice again the similarities between various carriers here.



Notes •  Chicago Midway again has an above-average fare hike for this current cohort, indicating

continued tight inventory for price-setter Southwest. •  Des Moines makes the list again, with 46% of flights seeing a fare drop (for each flight from

DSM, it was an average fare drop of less than four bucks…)



Notes •  A quick comparison between the hikes and drops implies overall directionality of fare

changes this past week. •  Flights on most routes to the airports above are open to future fare prediction on

getFLYR.com



Notes •  Keeping in mind that these are median fares, we see that the $321/322, $203/205,

$145/147, $100-103 marks are the more extreme intervals of fare change among carriers. •  Wilmington, NC hikes regularly jump by a high interval relative to other flights.



•  One sign that it’s “business as usual” for airlines is when these biggest fare hikes/drops feature few major hubs.



Notes •  Among the major routes,

you see some examples of the more moderate (read: common) intervals by which airfares change.

•  Examples that you see often are round numbers like $20/30/40.

•  More than half the fares between NYC and warmer climates were up, possibly as New Yorkers looked forward to digging out of record snowfall.

TRENDS AMONG 25 MAJOR AIRPORT ROUTES



ABOUT OUR DATA

•  We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing March 7, 2015 to April 11, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis.

•  These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending February 28, 2015. •  Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.



ABOUT FLYR

FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. Our open airfare prediction beta is currently available at http://www.getFLYR.com. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports.

Steady Travels, FLYR Research

© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved. All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact: Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. [email protected] 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080