flyr weekly 2014-12-22

US Airfare Trend Report

Week of December 22, 2014

Flights departing December 27, 2014 – January 25, 2015 Observation period: December 14-20, 2014

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Welcome to FLYR’s US Airfare Trend Report.

FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast.

In studying the frequent changes in airfares, we’re constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis — we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike.

We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports.

Happy Holidays and Steady Travels, FLYR Research



About this data We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing December 27, 2014 to January 25, 2015. These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending December 20, 2014. Most commercial carriers in the US are represented. Since the previous issue, the dates of observation have been aligned to synchronize with the calendar week.

Notes: This past week saw the greatest proportion of fare increases from JetBlue and Virgin America. Most legacy carrier activity is on the quieter side, as this cohort of flights no longer includes the highly volatile surge travel dates preceding Christmas.

Notes: As US Airways remained the least volatile carrier during this past seven-days, even the fares that did increase in price only did so mildly compared to the prior period.



Notes: Week over week, we see that the degree of change among the top 10 origins is rather subdued. Seasonal factors due to the exclusion of holiday surge dates are the most likely factors here. Over a quarter of flights departing LAX and SJC, and over a quarter of those heading from SEA saw price drops in the past week.



Notes: As with origin-based data, top destinations also saw more subdued fare volatility this past week.



Notes: Of note, Santa Barbara and Savannah flights uniformly moved in a straight-up trajectory that was identical to the prior period, confirming the presence of yield management. On the downside, Burbank was notable due to a single outlier fare drop.



Notes: We continue to see that the magnitude of change is down from the previous week, signaling lowered volatility for this cohort. That said, outlier data points still remain on both up and down sides.



Trends Among 25 Major Airport Routes (by tracked non-stop volume)

Notes: We list 25 airport-airport routes with some of the heaviest tracked traffic. During this period, we saw the highest proportion of increases within the Chicago O’Hare – SFO route, with 43% of fares seeing an increase. That said, we saw the most aggressive downward price moves from the Atlanta-Dallas route, with over three-quarters of fares seeing some kind of drop. We also see the effect of Alaska Airlines’ considerable price cuts this period, with a remarkable effect for on both their ANC-SEA and SFO-SEA flagship routes.

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© 2014 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved. All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:

Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. [email protected] 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080

flyr weekly 2014-12-22

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