flyr weekly 2015-02-16

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  1. 1. US Airfare Trend Report Week of February 16, 2015
  2. 2. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 ABOUT OUR DATA We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing February 21, 2015 to March 28, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis. These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending February 14, 2015. Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.
  3. 3. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 Notes We saw some very widespread increases this past week, indicative of across-the-board shifts in fare pricing. AA/US, United, and JetBlue all had very similar proles, with over 4/5ths of fares having gone up.
  4. 4. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 Notes AA/US and United raised fares on most of their inventory by $3, indicating a subtle frame-shift repricing taking place. We note that this week, fares were more in-sync between the merging carriers than usual. JetBlue, on the other hand, saw a median jump of $20 on a equally high proportion of ights.
  5. 5. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 Notes Highly ranked among the routes aected by the fare increases are those that are predominantly served by the likes of AA/US and UA. (Keep in mind that the magnitude of these increases remains low). On the other hand, those ying from Des Moines should be seeing broadly lower fares this week.
  6. 6. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 Notes A similar prole is seen on a destination-basis. Flights on most routes to the airports above are open to future fare prediction on getFLYR.com
  7. 7. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 Notes Unusual for this list, fare hikes among most of the origins above were very widespread, including a median $41 increase for a whopping 94% of ights ying out of Sarasota, FL. Fare Drops remained outliers, with the exception of Des Moines, where the $217 fare drop was the median value for 65% of ights.
  8. 8. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 Notes Some big names are seen here among both increases and decreases. JFK saw $23 increases for 75% of future arrivals. ATL saw $28 hikes for 67% Entering the Spring Break season, Newark, DCA, and IAD all had sizeable drops on around 15% of its ights.
  9. 9. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 Notes From here (and beyond the sea of red) we see that the fare hikes were likely part of a broad hub-to-hub increase. Delta, as a big-three legacy carrier, was also a participant in the fare hikes, but began to roll back some of those fares. Many of the fares may be rolled back during the current week. TRENDS AMONG 25 MAJOR AIRPORT ROUTES
  10. 10. FLYR Inc. fb.com/getyr FLYRLabs.com @FLYR_Research Data cohort: Flights departing February 21, 2015 March 28, 2015Observation period: 7 days ending February 14, 2015 ABOUT FLYR FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast. Our open airfare prediction beta is currently available at http://www.getFLYR.com. In studying the frequent changes in airfares, were constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports. Steady Travels, FLYR Research
  11. 11. 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved. All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact: Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. andrew@FLYRLabs.com 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080