US Airfare Trend Report

Week of January 26, 2015

Flights departing January 31, 2015 – February 27, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 24, 2015

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Welcome back to FLYR’s US Airfare Trend Report. FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast. Our open airfare prediction beta is currently available at http://www.getflyr.com. In studying the frequent changes in airfares, we’re constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis — we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports. Steady Travels, FLYR Research

Flights departing January 31, 2015 – February 27, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 24, 2015

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About this data We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing January 31, 2015 to February 27, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis. These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending January 24, 2015. Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.

Notes: Three of the largest discount darlings, Frontier, JetBlue, and Virgin America, all had relatively widespread upswings for this cohort of flights — each with over 40% fare hikes!

Notes: In terms of magnitude, we see that Virgin’s fare hikes are probably denting their fliers a bit more than either Frontier or JetBlue due to the $45 median price upward price swing.

Flights departing January 31, 2015 – February 27, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 24, 2015

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Notes: The most noticeable item here is that Santa Barbara had a sharp and almost universal downswing in prices. All observed departures from Santa Barbara (except for a single flight that didn’t budge) dropped in price, and by nearly $150 on average. Notice some of the big

Flights departing January 31, 2015 – February 27, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 24, 2015

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Notes: Notice here some big names in both the fare hikes and fare hops department. While this period is not especially volatile on an across-the-board basis, we are seeing some unusual concentration in some fairly large markets here.

Flights departing January 31, 2015 – February 27, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 24, 2015

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Notes: A handful of Memphis flights are getting priced upward, indicating higher probability of sellout on those dates. We rarely see SFO getting ranked in these charts, so it’s interesting to see a $106 median price drop for roughly 14% of outbound travelers here.

Flights departing January 31, 2015 – February 27, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 24, 2015

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Notes: Similarly, on a destination basis, we see our Whopper of the Week. That $559 median price hike affects three flights, so it’s unlikely to affect you unless you really, really like the Lion King musical (on tour in Memphis all February).

Flights departing January 31, 2015 – February 27, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 24, 2015

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Trends Among 25 Major Airport Routes (by tracked non-stop volume)

Notes: We see again the peril of waiting until late in the game to book that Dallas/Chicago ORD corridor. The pair of flights from Denver (one to SLC and the other to LAX) and the LGA/MIA are also seeing some widespread but somewhat blunted re-pricings.

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© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved. All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:

Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. andrew@getflyr.com 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080