flyr weekly 2015-01-12

US Airfare Trend Report

Week of January 12, 2015

Flights departing January 19, 2015 – February 15, 2015 Observation period: Week ending January 12, 2015

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Hope everyone had a joyous holiday. Welcome back to FLYR’s US Airfare Trend Report. FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast. In studying the frequent changes in airfares, we’re constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis — we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports. Steady Travels, FLYR Research



About this data We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing January 19, 2015 to February 15, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis. These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending January 12, 2015. Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.

Notes: On a per-carrier basis, fare changes were generally not very widespread during this classic post-holiday lull. Visible exceptions to this trend are quasi-low cost carriers JetBlue and Virgin America, who both had fairly broad price increases for this cohort.

Notes: When taking into consideration the fairly limited scope of fare hikes among major carriers, even the larger median fare movements, like AA’s -$89 move, are put into perspective.



Notes: This time around, we see some larger airports seeing broad changes. Of note, ABQ flights saw a median $72 fare increase on 42% of its outbound flights. On the other end, Providence saw zero increases and 38% decreases, at a median $90 less than a week before.



Notes: Once again, among the destination airports that saw broader increases, the magnitude was modest at around $30-40. Again, ABQ saw the most costly fare changes, with one in five fares flying to New Mexico’s largest city experiencing a fare hike over $70.



Notes: For the chart on top, the airports generally had very few fares that increased (except for ABQ). For fare drops, Oakland is perhaps impacting the most travelers, as the $190 median drop was among 17% of outbound flights.



Notes: The one big outlier here was a single flight to Wilmington, NC, that experienced near-sellout status. It’s a reminder of how dynamic pricing can be quite cutting at times.



Trends Among 25 Major Airport Routes (by tracked non-stop volume)

Notes: We noted earlier that there are a few major airports that saw broader fare hikes. Here we see that much of it is focused on a few major routes, though the impact on a per-airfare basis is generally limited. One noteworthy change is on the Dallas-Chicago route, where 22% of fares saw a median $262 fare hike. Compare that to the LGA-ORD route, where over half the flights were priced down, by an average of around $20.

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© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved. All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:

Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. [email protected] 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080

flyr weekly 2015-01-12

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