US Airfare Trend Report

Week of February 23, 2015

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

Notes •  Since the prior week’s widespread, multi-carrier fare hike, we saw broad reversals this past

week, as expected. •  American/US, United, and JetBlue all seeing broad fare drops.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

Notes •  After AA/US and United raised fares on most of their inventory by $3, they got reversed by exactly

the same amount. •  For more information on this phenomenon, refer to last week’s research post on story.getflyr.com

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

Notes •  Chicago Midway has an above-average fare hike for this current cohort, indicating some

tighter inventory for price-setter Southwest. •  The fare drop chart indicates the chief beneficiaries of the hike reversal this past week.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

Notes •  Flights on most routes to the airports above are open to future fare prediction on

getFLYR.com

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

Notes •  Looking at fare volatility ranked by magnitude, we observe a fare change profile similar to

that of any other week. •  Even though over 99% of fares from Savannah did not budge at all, the fares that did move

shifted considerably.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

Notes •  The previous week’s sea of

red gave way to this week’s sea of green, as major routes are reflecting the backtracking of the prior period’s attempted system-wide fare increase.

•  Note the spread of the $3 shift point, which was the most common price change interval this time around.

TRENDS AMONG 25 MAJOR AIRPORT ROUTES

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

ABOUT OUR DATA

•  We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing February 28, 2015 to April 4, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis.

•  These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending February 21, 2015. •  Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.

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Data cohort: Flights departing February 28, 2015 – April 4, 2015  •  Observation period: 7 days ending February 21, 2015  

ABOUT FLYR

FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast. Our open airfare prediction beta is currently available at http://www.getFLYR.com.   In studying the frequent changes in airfares, we’re constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis — we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports.    

Steady Travels, FLYR Research

© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved.   All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:   Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. andrew@FLYRLabs.com 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080