wpa's weekly political brief 120615
TRANSCRIPT
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 15, 2012
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• A look at Obama’s 2008 coalition and how it’s holding together in 2012
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Weekly Summary
Barack Obama’s 2008 coalition seems to be showing cracks. African American
voters in North Carolina and Jewish voters in New York are supporting him by
substantially smaller margins.
Nationally, one out of five 2008 Obama supporters is currently undecided or
leaning toward Romney. Women, Hispanics, and younger voters are unsure if
they support the president after four years in office.
Overall, while Americans continue to trend negatively on the direction of the
country and how Obama has handled the economy, they are very divided on
presidential approval, the presidential ballot, and the generic congressional
ballot.
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American opinions on the direction of the country are essentially unchanged from a year ago.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 33% 29%
Wrong Track 59% 62%
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 31%
57% 63% 63%
75%
64% 63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Direction of the County
Right Direction Wrong Track
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Americans have not changed their opinion of Obama significantly since December.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 48% 49%
Disapprove 47% 48%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
48%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
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$50,309
$138,727
$15,783,998,125,524
National debt has increased $18,882,473,268 since last week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
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41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 45%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
The generic congressional ballot is currently tied.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
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Obama’s economic approval saw a slight dip as recent economic news indicated no end to a difficult situation.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
52%
39%
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The May unemployment report was difficult for the president.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is unadjusted
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
May, 2012 8.2%
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The presidential race is tied.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
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In North Carolina, Obama has lost 15 points from his 2008 total among African Americans.
Source: PPP June 12
McCain 5%
Obama 95%
2008 North Carolina African American Voters
48%
20%
6%
4%
46%
76%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Overall African American
North Carolina
Obama
Undecide
Romney
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In New York, Obama has lost a substantial portion of the Jewish vote.
Source: Siena Collage, June 3-6, 2012 Siena College, October 19-21, 2008
35% 43%
6%
5%
59% 51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Overall Jewish Voters
New York
Obama
Undecide
Romney
McCain 30%
Undecided 4% Obama
66%
2008 New York Jewish Voters
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Nationally, one in five voters who supported Obama in 2008 are currently undecided or voting for Romney. This holds true among key demographics that made up the Obama coalition.
Source: American Pulse, June 12
19% 17% 20%
10% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Overall 18-34 year olds Women Hispanics African Americans
2008 Obama Voters
Romney or Undecided
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For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300