wpa's weekly political brief 120629

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 29, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political

environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates

every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• American opinions of their current healthcare

• American worries about the costs of the new law

• A review of some of the new penalties, fees, and taxes in the new healthcare law

Weekly Summary

• Obama leads Romney slightly on the head to head ballot.

• The national deficit has risen to 15.8 trillion dollars and the economic

outlook for the next few months is dismal.

• Americans have consistently opposed ObamaCare and believe it will

increase their personal healthcare costs.

o The Supreme Court’s ruling that the individual mandate is a tax will only

exacerbate these concerns.

• Obama’s economic approval remains low.

o Most American’s recognize that for two years during the worst financial

crisis since the Great Depression, the president’s primary focus was

working to pass the largest tax increase on the middle class in two

decades.

36%

25%

34% 31% 34% 28% 25%

33%

20% 18%

35% 31%

57%

67%

57% 61% 60%

66% 67%

58%

75% 75%

60% 62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

American’s continue to be unhappy with the direction of the country.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 34% 32%

Wrong Track 59% 60%

2010 Election

Obama’s job approval is slightly higher than it was leading up to the 2010 elections.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 47% 49%

Disapprove 48% 48%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

2010 Election

$50,410

$138,942

$15,821,014,256,254

The national debt continues to increase.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 44%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

The generic congressional ballot is tied.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

Obama’s economic approval is very close to where it was during the 2010 elections.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

40%

54%

41%

60%

31%

52%

42%

2010 Election

The disappointing May jobs report was compounded by revisions to earlier reports.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

May, 2012 8.2%

November, 2010 9.8%

115,000

77,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Old Report Revised Report

April Jobs Report

Jobs created

226,000

73,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Average Q1 Jobs/month Average March & AprilJobs/Month

Q1 vs. Q2 Average Jobs Created

Jobs created

Obama has a slight edge on the ballot going into the weekend.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%

43% 45% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

39%

45%

41% 38% 40%

35% 36%

29% 35% 33%

46%

42%

46% 47% 41%

45% 46% 49% 47% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ObamaCare support

Support Oppose

Most Americans are satisfied with their current healthcare and have opposed ObamaCare since its inception.

Source: Fox News, June 24-26

Favorable 75%

Unsure 3%

Unfavorable 22%

Impression of current healthcare

A majority of American’s worry that their actual healthcare costs will increase as a result of the new law….

Source: CBS NYT, March 21-25

Increase My Costs 52%

No Effect 27%

Unsure 6%

Lower My Costs 15%

Effect of Healthcare Law

And they are correct. The new law is one of the largest tax increases in American history, with a host of new penalties, fees, and taxes.

Source: CBS NYT, March 21-25

Tan Tax

•10% tax hike

Medicare surtaxes

•3.8% surtax

Consumer penalties

•2014: $285 or 1% of total household income (whichever is greater)

•2015: $975 or 2% of total household income (whichever is greater)

•2016: $2,085 or 2.5% of total household income (whichever is greater)

Flex spending account limits

•2013: Flexible spending accounts capped at $2,500 with limits on what can be bought with them

Pharmaceutical industry fees

•2013: $2.8 billion

•2014-2016: $3.0 billion

•2017: $4.0 billion

•2018: $4.1 billion

•2019 and beyond: $2,8 billion

Insurance industry fees

•2014: $8 billion

•2015-2016: $11.3 billion

•2017: $13.9 billion

•2018: $14.3 billion

$500 billion Tax Increase Also includes:

For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:

Bryon Allen Partner and COO

202.470.6300

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Perkins Partner

202.494.3084

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Chris Wilson Partner and CEO

405.286.6500

E-mail:

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Ryan Steusloff Vice President

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202.470.6300

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wpa's weekly political brief 120629

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