wpa's weekly political brief 120622

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief June 22, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political

environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates

every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• The April jobs report revisions

• American opinions on the Supreme Court and Obama’s health care reforms

• May fundraising for Republican and Democratic organizations

• Opinions on illegal immigration

Weekly Summary

• While Obama and Romney are tied on the ballot and Obama’s job approval remains

at 49%, June has been a month of big picture disappointment for the president.

• The downward revisions to the April jobs report show that June would need to be a

remarkable month to salvage Q2 expectations.

o Signs of recovery appear to be few and far between as expectations are

ratcheted downward.

• Ahead of a landmark Supreme Court decision on the president’s signature legislative

accomplishment, pluralities of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Supreme

Court and oppose Obama’s health care law.

• May was a poor fundraising month for Democrats, as the RNC outpaced the DNC,

Romney’s super-PAC outpaced Obama’s in fundraising, and Obama’s campaign went

upside down on spending vs. intake.

• While Americans are sympathetic to people looking for work, it is clear that they want

immigration laws to be respected and enforced.

36%

25%

34% 31% 34% 28% 25%

33%

20% 18%

35% 31%

57%

67%

57% 61% 60%

66% 67%

58%

75% 75%

60% 62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

Most Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 34% 32%

Wrong Track 59% 60%

2010 Election

Obama’s job approval has been split since December, and has ticked up slightly this week.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 49% 49%

Disapprove 47% 48%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

2010 Election

$50,358

$138,832

$15,802,067,158,525

Each taxpayer’s share of the debt has increased $105 this week.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 44%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

The generic congressional ballot is currently tied.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

Obama’s economic approval remains low.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

40%

54%

41%

60%

31%

52%

42%

2010 Election

Recent revisions to the jobs report show that the economy is slowing down again.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

May, 2012 8.2%

June, 17, 2012 Obama’s 100th Round of golf

November, 2010 9.8%

115,000

77,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Old Report Revised Report

April Jobs Report

Jobs created

226,000

73,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Average Q1 Jobs/month Average March & AprilJobs/Month

Q1 vs. Q2 Average Jobs Created

Jobs created

The presidential ballot remains tied.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 46%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%

43% 45% 46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

Ahead of a landmark Supreme Court decision on health care, pluralities of Americans approve of the Supreme Court and disapprove of the healthcare reform laws.

Source: AP-GfK June 14-18 CBS News/New York Times May 31-June 3

40% 35% 36%

29% 35% 33%

41% 45% 46%

49% 47% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1/1

/2

01

1

2/1

/2

01

1

3/1

/2

01

1

4/1

/2

01

1

5/1

/2

01

1

6/1

/2

01

1

7/1

/2

01

1

8/1

/2

01

1

9/1

/2

01

1

10

/1

/2

01

1

11

/1

/2

01

1

12

/1

/2

01

1

1/1

/2

01

2

2/1

/2

01

2

3/1

/2

01

2

4/1

/2

01

2

5/1

/2

01

2

6/1

/2

01

2

Health Care Reform Support

Support Oppose

Approve 44%

Unsure 20%

Disapprove 36%

Supreme Court Job Approval

May was a very good month for Republican funding, and Obama’s campaign expenses outpaced his intake by several million dollars, despite the advantages afforded to an incumbent.

34.3

20

8

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

RNC DNC Restore Our future (Romney) Priorities USA Action (Obama)

May Fundraising (Millions of Dollars)

-44.6

39.1

-50

0

50

Obama Campaign Expenditures

Spending Fundraising

Recent polling on illegal immigration reveals that the American public has what appear to be conflicting positions on the issue, supporting both Arizona’s law cracking down on illegal immigration and Obama’s Executive Order halting deportation. However…..

Source: Bloomberg, June 15-18 Pew June 7-17

Agree 64% Unsure

6%

Disagree 30%

Obama's Policy

Approve 58%

Unsure 4%

Disapprove 38%

Arizona's Law

When asked about components of the Arizona law, it is clear that Americans are sympathetic to people looking for work, but want their laws to be respected and enforced.

Source: United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll May 3-6

57% 68%

53% 47%

5%

3%

6% 6%

38% 28%

41% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Allowing police toquestion anyone who

they think may be in thecountry illegally

Requiring people toproduce documentsverifying their legal

status if police ask forthem

Allowing police to detainanyone who cannot

verify their legal status

Making it a crime foranyone in the countryillegally to look for or

accept work

Disapprove

Unsure

Approve

“The Supreme Court recently heard arguments for and against a law

passed by the state of Arizona dealing with illegal immigration. As I describe

some parts of the law, tell me if you approve or disapprove of each.”

For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:

Bryon Allen Partner and COO

202.470.6300

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Perkins Partner

202.494.3084

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Wilson Partner and CEO

405.286.6500

E-mail:

[email protected]

Ryan Steusloff Vice President

202.470.6300

[email protected]

wpa's weekly political brief 120622

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