wpa's weekly political brief 1200816

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 17, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment

as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• A look Paul Ryan’s image boost after he became the Republican VP nominee.

• The Presidential ballot in Wisconsin before and after Paul Ryan is announced as VP nominee.

• Older American’s views on the Ryan budget plan and the Obama budget plan.

• The Republican advantage in voter engagement.

• Registration rates in swing states.

• The Presidential ballot in swing states.

Weekly Summary

• Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate this week generated excitement among Republicans

(pg. 4).

o Ryan’s favorability among Republicans and Independents increased by double digits (14% and 20%)

after the announcement.

• By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor (pg. 5).

o In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%.

• Older Americans believe that Paul Ryan’s plan is the best to deal with America’s rapidly expanding federal

budget deficit (pg. 9).

o This is in contrast with conventional wisdom that older Americans are weary of Ryan’s budget plan.

• Republicans have a 13% advantage among those voters who say they have given “quite a lot” of thought

about the election (pg. 11).

o This gap is higher than in recent presidential years and suggests that Republicans will have a higher

turnout rate than Democrats in November.

o Americans giving “quite a lot” of thought to the election decreased 6% from 2008.

• Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of the 8 swing state that Obama won in 2008 (pg. 12).

o This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that Democrats will have a lower turnout in crucial

swing states in 2012.

• Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states (pg. 16).

o Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November.

Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate generated excitement among Republicans. Ryan’s favorability among Republicans and Independents increased by double digits after the announcement.

Source: Washington Post-ABC News Poll Conducted August 8-12, 2012

23%

38%

48%

62%

19%

39% 33% 32%

14% 13%

28% 32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All - Before All - After GOP - Before GOP - After Ind - Before Ind - After

Paul Ryan Image before and after VP Announcement among Key Groups

Favorable Unfavorable

By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor. In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%.

Source: Rasmussen Reports

46% 48% 49% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

25-Jul 15-Aug

Presidential Ballot in Wisconsin before and after Romney chose Ryan as his Running Mate

Romney/Ryan Obama/Biden

Only 30% of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the right track.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 32% 17%

Wrong Track 62% 77%

29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%

17% 19%

31% 30% 32% 30%

47%

66% 62% 64% 63% 64%

66% 64%

77% 74%

61% 62% 62% 64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010 Election

Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 46% 46%

Disapprove 50% 49%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 46% 47%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 49% 50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

$50,844

$139,914

$15,972,772,894,158

The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

Older Americans believe that Paul Ryan’s plan is the best to deal with the US’ rapidly expanding federal budget deficit. This is in contrast to the conventional wisdom that older Americans are weary of Ryan’s budget plan.

47% 41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Republican/Ryan Plan Democratic/Obama Plan

Best Plan to deal with Federal Budget Deficit among Americans

50-64 years old

48% 42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Republican/Ryan Plan Democratic/Obama Plan

Best Plan to deal with Federal Budget Deficit among Americans

65+ years old

Source: Gallup Conducted: April 20-23, 2011.

Republicans continue to maintain a 2% lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 41% 42%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46%

43% 43% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

Republicans have a 13% advantage among those voters who say they have given “quite a lot “of thought about the election. This gap is higher than in recent presidential years and suggests that Republicans will have a higher turnout rate than Democrats in November.. Americans giving “quite a lot” of thought to the election decreased 6% from 2008.

74%

3%

21%

3%

61%

5%

30%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Quite a lot Some Only a little None

Voter Engagement with the upcoming Presidential Election

Republicans DemocratsSource: Gallup

Conducted: July 19-22, 2012.

42%

69% 70% 64%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2004 2008 2012

Americans Giving "Quite a Lot" of Thought to the Election, July of Presidential Election Years

Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of 8 swing states that Obama won in 2008. This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that democrats will have a lower turnout in 2012.

5.30% 0.50%

6.40%

-0.70%

-7.30%

2.30%

-0.70% -5.10% -0.70%

3%

-4.90% -9.50%

-1.40%

-19.70%

-2.30% -4.10% -7.40% -5.20%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada NewHampshire

New Mexico North Carolina Pennsylvania 8 State Total

Change in Voter Registration in 8 Swing States from 2008-2012

Republicans DemocratsSource: Third Way

Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

54%

38%

2010 Election

Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

125,000 =

Number of new

jobs needed to

keep pace with

population

growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

July 2012 8.3%

87,000 64,000

163,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

May June July

Jobs Created by Month

The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 46%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%

43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states. Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November.

Source: Purple Strategies Conducted August 13-14

*States include: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire,

New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

46% 48% 46% 48% 47% 49% 45% 44%

47% 46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Colorado Virginia Ohio Florida 12 State Total*

Presidential Ballot in Swing States

Romney Obama

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wpa's weekly political brief 1200816

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