wpa's weekly political brief 120713
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 13, 2012
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Presidential election fundraising
• Unemployment changes in states who elected Republican and Democratic governors in
2010
• Public opinion President Obama’s views on the role of government
• The repeal of ObamaCare
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Weekly Summary
• Obama holds a two-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.
• Mitt Romney and the RNC outraised Barack Obama by $35 million in June.
o Romney’s strong showing marked a second straight month of outperforming
President Obama.
o The Romney campaign has taken in over $180 Million since the end of April.
• Republican governors are outdoing their Democratic counterparts with
unemployment.
o Every state that elected a Republican governor in 2010 has seen their
unemployment decline, and by a sharper average than the national and
Democratic state average.
• Many Americans disagree with the President’s views on the size and role of
government.
o More Americans feel as though the President Obama’s view on the role of
government is a reason to oppose him rather than support him.
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American’s continue to be unhappy with the direction of the country.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 30% 32%
Wrong Track 62% 60%
36%
25%
34% 31% 34% 28% 25%
33%
20% 18%
35% 30% 32%
57%
67%
57% 61% 60%
66% 67%
58%
75% 75%
60% 62% 61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010 Election
Page 5
Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for the 13th consecutive month.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 47% 47%
Disapprove 50% 50%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that more Americans think that President Obama’s view on the size and role of government is a reason to oppose him. This was the case among registered voters, independents and moderates as well.
37%
39%
42%
35%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
All Americans Registered Voters Independents Moderates
Obama's views on size and role of Government
Reason to Support
Oppose
Not a Major Factor
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll – Conducted July 5-8, 2012
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$50,563
$139,293
$15,873,146,530,892
The national debt rose by nearly $40 billion in the past week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 8
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 42%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
43% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Republicans maintain a two point edge over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
Page 9
Obama’s economic approval continues to stay well below 50%.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
40% 2010 Election
Page 10
Unemployment remains bleak with less than four months until the general election.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
68000 77000 80000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
April May June
Jobs Created by Month
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
June, 2012 8.2%
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A recent analysis of state unemployment records has shown that states that elected Republican governors in 2010 have outpaced both their Democratic counterparts and the national trend in unemployment change.
-0.9%
-1.4%
-1.0%
-2%
-1%
0%
Unemployment Change in States that held 2010 Gubernatorial Elections
National GOP Governors Dem Governors
Republican and Democrat Source: Examiner Article – July 6, 2012 National Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Page 12
Obama has a two-point lead over Romney heading into the middle of the summer.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 46%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43% 45% 44% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 13
Since the Romney campaign began fundraising in conjunction with the RNC, he has outraised the Obama campaign by over $50 million since May, creating a much more competitive financial race than 2008.
2012 Fundraising Source: Reuters July 9, 2012 2008 Fundraising Source: www.fec.gov
$77,000,000
$106,000,000
$60,000,000
$77,000,000
$0
$25,000,000
$50,000,000
$75,000,000
$100,000,000
$125,000,000
$150,000,000
May June
Romney Fundraising with RNC
Romney Obama
$368
$745
$0
$150
$300
$450
$600
$750
$900
In M
illio
ns
2008 Fundraising
McCain Obama
$389
$512
$0
$150
$300
$450
$600
In M
Illio
ns
2012 Fundraising to Date
Romney Obama
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mar 23-
24, 2010
May 22-
23, 2010
Jul 24-25,
2010
Sep 24-
25, 2010
Nov 28,
2010
Jan 29-30,
2011
Apr 1-2,
2011
June 4-5,
2011
Aug 5-6,
2011
Nov 11-
12, 2011
Mar 17-
18, 2012
July 7-8,
2012
Opinion on the Repeal of ObamaCare
Favor Repeal Oppose Reveal
2010 Election
53%
41%
Despite the Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of ObamaCare, the law remains unpopular with Americans. A majority continue to favor repeal, which the House voted in favor of this week, and three-quarters of Americans have a favorable opinion of their current healthcare.
Favorable 75% Unsure
3%
Unfavorable 22%
Impression of current healthcare
Repeal Source: Rasmussen Reports – Conducted July 7-8, 2012 Healthcare Impression Source: Fox News, June 24-26
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