wpa's weekly political brief 120330
TRANSCRIPT
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 30, 2012
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WPA’s Key Weekend Charts
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday morning.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Data from WPA’s newly released poll on the Martin/Zimmerman incident.
• Overview on the changes to the federal healthcare law and what Americans would like the
Supreme Court to do.
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Weekly Summary
While Americans remain unconvinced that their country is going in the right direction, torn on
President Obama’s leadership, and continue to favor Republicans slightly on the generic ballot, the
shooting last month of Trayvon Martin has dominated the news cycle this week.
WPA conducted a poll on this issue, two days after CNN/ORC’s widely circulated poll and shows
Americans are increasingly torn on the issue.
• In CNN’s poll, 73% of Americans believed Zimmerman should be arrested.
• As further information has come out and Americans engaged the issue more, they are less
certain. WPA’s poll, designed to match CNN’s, showed that only 48% of American’s
believed Zimmerman should be arrested, a 25 point drop.
Healthcare has faced majority or near majority opposition since changes were first proposed at the
federal level.
• A plurality of Americans (42%) would like to see the Supreme Court throw the entire
healthcare law out.
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Americans are showing no signs of optimism and continue to believe that the country is going in the wrong direction.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 34%
57% 63% 63%
75%
64% 60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
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Obama’s approval and disapproval continue to be tied below 50%.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 47% 49%
Disapprove 47% 47%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
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Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment declined to 8.8% in mid-March.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
February, 2012 8.3%
7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50%
10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50%
Gallup Data
8.8%
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$137,704
$1,318,420,229,450
$15,597,827,432,652
Since last week the federal budget deficit has increased $1,790,248,191.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Taxpayer
Federal Budget Deficit
Page 8
Despite some stirrings that economic confidence may be coming back, Obama has a ways to go before a majority of American’s believe he’s doing well with the economy.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll
58%
50%
46%
40% 36%
41% 38%
38% 49%
51%
59% 62%
56% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
39845 39934 40026 40118 40210 40299 40391 40483 40575 40664 40756 40848 40940
Obama on the Economy
Approve Disapprove
Page 9
Republicans continue to maintain their lead on the generic ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Republicans 45% 44%
Democrats 43% 43%
41% 42% 43% 42%
45% 44%
43%
46% 43% 44% 42%
43% 44%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Page 10
The last few days have moved public opinion significantly in favor of George Zimmerman.
Source: CNN ORC March 24-25, n=1,014 adults
WPA March 27-28, n=811 adults
73%
48%
16%
36%
11% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CNN 3/24-3/25
WPA 3/27-3/28
Should not
No opinion/Unsure
Should
Based on what you have read or heard about this incident,
do you think the police should or should not arrest George
Zimmerman for shooting Trayvon Martin?
35% 42%
32%
37%
1%
1% 13%
13% 19%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CNN 3/24-3/25
WPA 3/27-3/28
Not much
Only a little
Unsure/DK/Ref
Some
A great deal
How much attention have you paid to the fatal shooting in
Florida last month of a teenager named Trayvon Martin by a
neighborhood watch volunteer named George Zimmerman?
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The initial media coverage of this incident clearly biased the way Americans view the issue. Those who have seen the most information about the incident have the most antagonistic attitudes toward George Zimmerman.
Source: WPA March 27-28, n=811 adults
How much attention have you paid to the fatal shooting in Florida last month of a
teenager named Trayvon Martin by a neighborhood watch volunteer named George
Zimmerman?
59%
47%
29%
27%
34% 58%
14% 20%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Great Deal Some Only a little/not much
Attention Paid
Should not
No opinion/Unsure
Should
Page 12
The federal changes to the healthcare system have almost always faced opposition from 50% of Americans.
Source: Washington Post-ABC News March 7-10, n=1,003 adults
3/10/2012: Overall, do you support or oppose the federal law making changes to the health care system? Do you
feel that way strongly or somewhat?
1/16/2012 and prior: Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the changes
to the health care system that have been enacted by (Congress) or and (the Obama administration)?
45% 48%
44%
46% 46% 47% 43% 45% 41%
50% 49%
41%
49% 50% 48% 52% 50% 52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
8/1
7/2
00
9
9/1
7/2
00
9
10
/1
7/2
00
9
11
/1
7/2
00
9
12
/1
7/2
00
9
1/1
7/2
01
0
2/1
7/2
01
0
3/1
7/2
01
0
4/1
7/2
01
0
5/1
7/2
01
0
6/1
7/2
01
0
7/1
7/2
01
0
8/1
7/2
01
0
9/1
7/2
01
0
10
/1
7/2
01
0
11
/1
7/2
01
0
12
/1
7/2
01
0
1/1
7/2
01
1
2/1
7/2
01
1
3/1
7/2
01
1
4/1
7/2
01
1
5/1
7/2
01
1
6/1
7/2
01
1
7/1
7/2
01
1
8/1
7/2
01
1
9/1
7/2
01
1
10
/1
7/2
01
1
11
/1
7/2
01
1
12
/1
7/2
01
1
1/1
7/2
01
2
2/1
7/2
01
2
Support Oppose
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A plurality of Americans would like to see the entire law thrown out by the Supreme Court.
Source: Washington Post-ABC News March 7-10, n=1,003 adults
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments about the health care law later this
month. Of these three options, which would you prefer to have the Supreme Court do?
Uphold the entire law 26%
Throw out part of the law 25% No opinion
7%
Throw the entire law out 42%
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Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Brian Smith Vice President
405.640.9517
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300