wpa's weekly political brief 120720

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 20, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political

environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates

every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• The relationship between consumer sentiment and presidential elections.

• Opinions of Independents in swing states of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

• National opinion of which presidential candidate is trusted on the major issues.

Weekly Summary

• Obama holds a one-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.

• There is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and presidential re-

election (pg. 9).

o Obama’s re-election prospects appear grim as he finds himself in a similar

position as George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.

• 47% of independent voters in swing states view Obama’s presidency as a failure

(pg. 12).

o Obama’s claim that Romney is out of touch with the economy does not

distract these voters from Obama’s poor economic record.

• Voters trust that Romney would handle the economy, taxes, the deficit, and

illegal immigration better than Obama (pg. 13).

o These issues are consistently the most important problems to voters, which

suggests that Romney is well positioned for November.

Americans believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction by nearly a 2 to 1 margin.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 30% 27%

Wrong Track 62% 66%

29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30%

28% 27%

17% 19%

31% 30% 32%

47%

66% 62% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64%

77% 74%

61% 62% 62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010 Election

Obama’s job approval remains slightly below 50%.

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 46%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 46% 47%

Disapprove 48% 50%

$50,620

$139,429

$15,893,504,267,312

The debt per taxpayer continues to approach $140,000.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 42%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46%

43% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

Republicans continue to lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

A majority of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

40%

2010 Election

A recent study by AEI found a strong correlation between consumer sentiment and presidential re-election. Obama’s re-election prospects appear grim as he finds himself in a similar position as George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.

Johnson* Nixon*

Carter

Reagan

H.W. Bush

Clinton

W. Bush

Obama

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105

Percent of Two Party

Re-Election Vote

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Index: October of Re-Election Year

* = November data

Correlation = 0.86

Source: The American Enterprise Institute

Unemployment continues to drive the narrative of the election. The number of new jobs created each month continues to fall short of the 125,000 required to keep pace with population growth.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

68000 77000 80000

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

April May June

Jobs Created by Month

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

June, 2012 8.2%

Obama’s lead over Romney is down to a single point midway through July.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%

43% 45% 44% 44% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

Independent voters in swing states are crucial to the presidential election. These voters view Obama’s presidency as a failure, particularly his lack of leadership on the economy.

Source: Purple Strategies. Conducted July 9-13

47% 42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama is a failure as president Romney is too out of touch tobe president

Presidential Suitability

49% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama is unable to improvethe economy

Romney couldn't do a betterjob improving the economy

Economic Performance

Independent Voters in Swing States

On a number of key issues, voters believe that Romney would do a better job than Obama. Voters believe that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama.

46% 50% 49% 47%

16% 14%

10% 10%

38% 36% 41% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Illegal Immigration Federal Budget Deficit The Economy and

Unemployment

Taxes

Core Issues

Romney Undecided Obama

Source: NYT/CBS News Poll

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wpa's weekly political brief 120720

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