wpa's weekly political brief 120705

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 6, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political

environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates

every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• Decline in American manufacturing

• The Presidential race in states with heavy manufacturing

• The newly released unemployment statistics for June 2012

Weekly Summary

• Obama maintains a slight lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.

• June unemployment capped off a disappointing Q2.

• Only 80,000 jobs were added and unemployment remained flat at 8.2%.

• In the last 56 years no president has been elected with unemployment

over 7% except Ronald Reagan.

• American manufacturing had an abysmal month in June of 2012

o Despite an overall growth in the economy, the manufacturing industry

saw substantial contraction in some of its most important sectors.

• Obama’s job approval declines in June

o After the month of May, where President Obama had a higher approval

rating than disapproval, the President saw his disapproval again creep

above 50% nationally.

o A new poll released this week shows that nearly half of Americans view

the President’s political view as extreme

American’s continue to be unhappy with the direction of the country.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 34% 32%

Wrong Track 59% 60%

36%

25%

34% 31% 34% 28% 25%

33%

20% 18%

35% 30%

57%

67%

57% 61% 60%

66% 67%

58%

75% 75%

60% 62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010 Election

Obama’s job approval has slipped throughout the month of June.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 46% 49%

Disapprove 50% 48%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 47%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, 47% of Americans view President Obama’s political views as extreme, compared to just 31% for Mitt Romney.

Source: Rasmussen Reports; Conducted June 29-30, 2012

31%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Viewed as Having Extreme Political Views

Romney Obama

$50,410

$139,030

$15,836,330,350,375

The national debt per taxpayer is climbing toward $140,000.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 40%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46%

43% 42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

Republicans hold a slight advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

40%

54%

41%

Obama’s economic approval has remained relatively static since March of 2012.

Source: Pollster.com

2010 Election

June capped off an abysmal quarter for job growth with only 80,000 jobs being added, far less than the 125,000 needed to keep pace with population growth.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

68000 77000 80000

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

April May June

Jobs Created by Month

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

June, 2012 8.2%

Only Ronald Reagan, who had strong third quarter growth, was re-elected in the last 56 years with unemployment over 7% and none have lost with unemployment below 6%. The nation would have to average over 219,000 new jobs per month for unemployment to be below 8% by November, a feat which the economy has shown no signs of accomplishing.

Source: WPA Analysis

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Na

tio

na

l U

ne

mp

loym

en

t R

ate

Incumbent President Vote Difference

Incumbent President Vote Difference and November National

Unemployment Rate

1980 1992

2004

1996 1956

1964

1972

1984

Correlation: -0.63

Obama maintains a slight edge over Mitt Romney as we enter July.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%

43% 45% 44% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

Many believe that the United States could be heading back into a recession, given developments in manufacturing and private sector growth. In June, Manufacturing experienced one of its worst overall months since January of 2009.

Source: Institute for Supply Management, June 2012 Report on Business

54% 50%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May June

Purchasing Manager's Index

60%

48%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May June

New Orders

56% 51%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May June

Production

54% 48%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May June

Exports

The contraction of manufacturing growth may be contributing to statistically tied races in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina – all states that Obama won in 2008


44% 44% 45% 45% 47%

9% 10% 9% 8% 7%

48% 46% 47% 47% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wisconsin Ohio Michigan Virginia North Carolina

Heavy Manufacturing States

Obama

Undecided

Romney

While Republicans have lost interest in the Presidential election following the dynamic primary season, they still hold a very favorable view of Mitt Romney

52%

33%

42%

60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

March

Republican Interest in the Presidential Election

Interesting

Dull

June

Republican Interest Source: Pew Research Center; Conducted June 7-17,2012 Romney Favorability Source: CNN/ORC International Poll; Conducted June 28-July 1, 2012

Favorable 85%

Never Heard Of 1%

No Opinion 5%

Unfavorable 8%

Romney Favorability

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wpa's weekly political brief 120705

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